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ECB Meeting of 28-29 October 2020 Account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank
November 26, 2020--Held in Frankfurt am Main on Wednesday and Thursday, 28-29 October 2020
1. Review of financial, economic and monetary developments and policy options
Financial market developments
Ms Schnabel reviewed the financial market developments since the Governing Council's previous monetary policy meeting on 9-10 September 2020.
Financial markets had been driven by two opposing forces.
On one side, reduced risks of a contested presidential election in the United States and expectations of a large fiscal stimulus programme under a potential Biden presidency had boosted risk sentiment and revived the reflation trade.
On the other side, renewed lockdown measures in different countries on the back of a surge in new coronavirus (COVID-19) cases, especially in the euro area, were increasingly reflected in asset price valuations.
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Source: ECB
Data flows, artificial intelligence and international trade: impacts and prospects for the value chains of the future
November 26, 2020--In-depth briefing and analysis on the issues of digital trade and the geopolitics of trade provided to the European Parliament.
On November 26 2020, the European Parliament published a paper requested by the European Parliament's Committee on International Trade (INTA), in which Bruegel scholars Georgios Petropoulos (Senior fellow), Niclas Poitiers (Research fellow) and André Sapir (Senior fellow) provided both an in-depth briefing and analysis on the issues of digital trade and the geopolitics of trade.
This follows a discussion and testimony given November 9 2020 before MEPs at the webinar entitled 'Data flows, artificial intelligence and international trade: impacts and prospects for the value chains of the future'.
Socio-economic effects of digital trade and artificial intelligence on EU industries
Artificial intelligence and new digital technologies are transforming digital trade. They facilitate the development of new business models of trade and reduce the geographical barriers of economic transactions. Such transformations are quite useful for the small and medium enterprises.
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Source: bruegel.org
ECB-Monetary developments in the euro area: October 2020
November 25, 2020--Annual growth rate of broad monetary aggregate M3 stood at 10.5% in October 2020, after 10.4% in September 2020
Annual growth rate of narrower monetary aggregate M1, comprising currency in circulation and overnight deposits, stood at 13.8% in October, unchanged from previous month
Annual growth rate of adjusted loans to households stood at 3.1% in October, unchanged from previous month
Annual growth rate of adjusted loans to non-financial corporations decreased to 6.8% in October from 7.1% in September
Components of the broad monetary aggregate M3
The annual growth rate of the broad monetary aggregate M3 stood at 10.5% in October 2020, after 10.4% in September, averaging 10.1% in the three months up to October. The components of M3 showed the following developments.
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Source: ECB
UK borrowing to hit record 394bn Pounds as Sunak warns of 'economic emergency'
November 25, 2020--UK borrowing is due to hit a peacetime record of £:394bn this year as the government grapples with the cost of the coronavirus pandemic, with chancellor Rishi Sunak admitting that "the economic emergency has only just begun".
Mr Sunak said the UK was facing a fall in gross domestic product of 11.3 per cent in 2020, the largest fall in output for 300 years, as he set out his one-year spending review for 2021/22.
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Source: msn.com
ESMA Newsletter-N0. 18
November 25, 2020--Since the last newsletter, key publications have been ESMA's report on Wirecard, the Share Trading Obligation (STO) and the Derivatives Trading Obligation (DTO) statements and the first statistical report on EU securities markets.
More, throughout the month we released ESMA 2021 Work Programme and launched an important Consultation on Taxonomy Regulation.
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Source: ESMA
ESMA sets out its final view on the derivatives trading obligation (DTO)
November 25, 2020--The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), the EU's securities markets regulator, has released a public statement that clarifies the application of the European Union's (EU) trading obligation for derivatives (DTO) following the end of the UK's transition from the EU on 31 December 2020.
The statement clarifies that the DTO will continue applying without changes after the end of the transition period. ESMA considers that the continued application of the DTO would not create risks to the stability of the financial system. The statement confirms the approach outlined in ESMA’s previous statement in March 2019.
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Source: ESMA
Germany's DAX index gets shake-up in wake of Wirecard scandal
November 24, 2020--Germany's blue-chip DAX index is undergoing its biggest ever overhaul in the wake of the Wirecard accounting scandal.
The DAX will expand from September 2021 to 40 from the current 30 companies and membership criteria will get tougher, exchange operator Deutsche Boerse said on Tuesday.
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Surce: reuters.com
Russian Federation: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2020 Article IV Mission
November 24, 2020--Outlook and risks
The economy was showing signs of a healthy recovery that is now under threat from a sharp rise in infections. The large contraction in the second quarter was not as severe as in most other G20 countries.
Russia's strong fiscal, monetary, and macroprudential response to the crisis helped put a floor under the downturn and fostered a stronger-than-projected rebound of third quarter gross domestic product (GDP). Some restrictions have now been reintroduced, but we expect these restrictions to have a less severe impact than those of the spring. All in all, we project the economy to contract by about 4 percent this year, and to expand by some 2½ percent in 2021, assuming the COVID-19 situation gradually normalizes. Nevertheless, the economy will remain well below full employment for the foreseeable future.
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Source: IMF
ESAs propose to adapt the EMIR implementation timelines for intragroup transactions, equity options and novations to EU counterparties
November 23, 2020--The European Banking Authority (EBA), the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) and the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), the European Supervisory Authorities (ESAs), have today published a final report with draft regulatory technical standards (RTS) proposing to amend the Commission Delegated Regulation on the risk mitigation techniques for OTC derivatives not cleared by a CCP (bilateral margin requirements) under the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR).
ESMA has also published a final report with new draft RTS proposing to amend the three Commission Delegated Regulations on the clearing obligation under EMIR.
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Source: ESMA
Targeted horizontal industrial policy: green, regional and European
November 23, 2020--Creating the conditions for the most promising low-carbon sectors to grow is the most efficient way to enable decarbonisation. As sector potential is regional and associated with regions' current strengths in related technologies, policy should aim to boost the growth potential of low-carbon technologies on a regional level.
Global decarbonisation has already revolutionised some major economic sectors.
In the electricity generation technology market, wind and solar today amount to almost 70% of new capacities. In the automotive sector, the market valuation of Tesla now exceeds that of any other car manufacturer, implying investors expect rapid growth in revenues. But this might only be the beginning. Many other sectors including agriculture, shipping and metals will need to be decarbonised to get at least close to the net-zero emission target stipulated in the Paris Agreement. Similar to electricity and vehicles, turning sometimes century-old inventions, such as batteries and electrolysis, into market-ready, increasingly cost-competitive technologies will be a main avenue for decarbonisation of these sectors.
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Source: bruegel.org
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