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IMF Staff Country Reports-Thailand: Selected Issues
June 4, 2018--THAILAND: FISCAL POLICY AND INCLUSIVE GROWTH1
A semi-structural model is used to simulate the impact of fiscal structural reforms on economic growth, inflation, current account balance, and public finances. Simulation results indicate that
structural reforms enabling higher infrastructure investment, stronger labor participation, and more efficient taxation can raise growth significantly and contribute to addressing domestic and external imbalances.
A. Introduction
1. Thailand's cyclical and structural challenges have contributed to its high current account surplus and are expected to impact growth in the short and long term. During 2013-15, growth slowed down significantly. While the export and tourism sectors have since
regained strength, other sectors of the economy have yet to take part in this renewed dynamism. Consumption and investment have remained sluggish, partly due to high household debt and a slow trickle down of growth to household income. This has resulted in a high current account
surplus. At the same time, rapid population aging will soon become a drag on potential growth, as it has an impact on the size of the work force and productivity growth.view more
Source: IMF
GDP grows 7.7% in Q4; India retains world's fastest growing economy tag At 7.7%, it is a seven-quarter high; full-year growth falls to 6.7%
June 1, 2018--Backed by government spending and investment, the economy grew at a seven-quarter high of 7.7 per cent in January-March. But this did not prevent GDP growth, at 6.7 per cent in 2017-18, from falling to its lowest rate in four years of the Narendra Modi government.
The fourth-quarter growth rate prompted the finance ministry to say the economy would clock 7.5 per cent growth in 2018-19, the upper range of growth projected by the Economic Survey.
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Source: business-standard.com
MSCI nod gives foreign investors chance to share China's market dividends
June 1, 2018--With the inclusion of China A-shares on a key global index, a step has been made for more foreign investors to increase exposure to China's capital market and share its growth dividends.
Global index compiler MSCI included 226 China large-cap A shares on its MSCI Emerging Markets Index at the close of trading Thursday.
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Source: chinadaily.com.cn
Dramatic surge in China carbon emissions signals climate danger
May 31, 2018--With China's CO2 pollution on the rise, is it time to panic?
China's carbon emissions growth has accelerated since the beginning of the year, leading to warnings that the country could be headed for its largest annual increase in climate pollution since 2011.
Led by increased demand for coal, oil and gas, China's CO2 emissions for the first three months of 2018 were 4% higher than they were for the same period in 2017, according to an Unearthed analysis of new government figures.
Analysts have suggested the country's carbon emissions could rise this year by 5%- the largest annual increase in seven years, back when the airpocalypse was at its peak.
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Source: unearthed.greenpeace.org
World Bank-China Economic Update -May 2018
May 31, 2018--Key messages
Economic activity in China remains resilient, with GDP growing by 6.9 percent in 2017 and 6.8 percent in the first quarter of 2018.
While consumption continues to drive growth, investment growth has rebounded from the lows in 2017, particularly in the private sector.
However, the long-term trend is slower investment growth accompanying slower economic growth, as an important part of China's "new normal" is the process of rebalancing away from investment toward consumption.
Even with the slowdown, investment is still high by international standards, so China’s main challenge is not to raise the growth rate of investment, but to ensure that it goes to sectors and firms that are more productive.
view the World Bank report-China economic update: investing in high-quality growth
Source: World Bank
IMF Staff Completes 2018 Article IV Mission to China
May 29, 2018--China's economic growth accelerated in 2017 and is expected to weaken only slightly in 2018 to 6.6 percent and moderate gradually to about 5½ percent by 2023.
Staff welcome the authorities' strategy to more decisively shift the policy focus from high-speed to high-quality growth. This will increase the benefits of growth for the Chinese people, as well make growth more sustainable.
Achieving this goal would be greatly helped by accelerating reforms in many areas, including de-emphasizing growth target, further reining in credit growth, boosting consumption, allowing market forces a more decisive role, deepening opening up and modernizing policy frameworks.
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Source: IMF
IMF Working Papers-Australia's Linkages with China: Prospects and Ramifications of China's Economic Transition
May 22, 2018--China and Australia have increasingly strong links, especially through trade. These are driven by demand from China for Australian commodities (coal and iron ore) and services (tourism and education). These links are influenced by China's transition to a services-driven, consumer-led economy.
Using ANZIMF, the Australia-New Zealand Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model, three risks (both upside and downside) to China during this transition process are considered, focusing on their spillovers to Australia. One simple takeaway is central to each risk-while the real GDP response to shocks in Australia typically is small, responses in demand components or sectors are usually much larger-along with three further takeaways, all of which help in the analysis of Australia in relation to any risk emanating from China.
Hang Seng Indexes launches Big Bay Area Composite index
May 21, 2018--Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited ('Hang Seng Indexes') will launch the Hang Seng Stock Connect Big Bay Area Composite Index on 21 May 2018 (Monday).
The index aims to reflect the performance of companies that are listed in Hong Kong and/or mainland China and that mainly operate in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Big Bay Area ('Big Bay
Area'). The Big Bay Area encompasses nine cities and two Special Administrative Regions ('SARs'),
namely Hong Kong, Macao, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Zhuhai, Foshan, Zhongshan, Dongguan, Zhaoqing, Huizhou and Jiangmen.
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Source: Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited
International Focus: Looking at Last Month in the Korean Equity Market
May 18, 2018--Global stock markets finished up in April, but performances were mixed by region. Developed markets were bullish, namely the eurozone states Italy, France, UK, Germany and Spain.
Meanwhile, emerging economies such as Russia, Indonesia, China and Taiwan stock exchanges retreated on a bearish note.
Concerns about a US-China trade war, the spread of geopolitical risks involving the US, Syria and Russia, in addition to the pullbacks of Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google, dubbed the FANG stocks, appear to have sapped the appetite for risk assets.
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Source: Korea Investment Management, portfolio manager of the AdvisorShares KIM Korea Equity ETF
HONG KONG: SFC Concludes Consultation on New OFC Rules and OFC Code
May 18, 2018--On 8th May 2018, the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) released consultation conclusions on the proposed Securities and Futures (Open-ended Fund Companies) Rules (OFC Rules) and Code on Open-ended Fund Companies (OFC Code) which set out detailed legal and regulatory requirements for the new open-ended fund company (OFC) structure.
This will enable investment funds to be established in corporate form in Hong Kong, in addition to the current unit trust form.
After considering market feedback, the SFC will implement the proposals set out in the consultation paper with certain modifications and clarifications.
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Source: Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission
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