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Vietnam's economy grows robustly, but risks intensify
December 11, 2018--Vietnam's GDP growth is projected at 6.8 percent for 2018, accompanied by broad macroeconomic stability
Economic growth in Vietnam has proven resilient despite weakening external conditions, driven mainly by strong domestic demand and a dynamic export-oriented manufacturing sector.
According to Taking Stock, the World Bank's bi-annual economic report on Vietnam released today, the pace of expansion is forecast to remain at 6.8 percent this year, higher than the projected figure of 6.3 percent for emerging markets in the East Asia and the Pacific.
CESC Publishes its Latest Belt and Road Participation Report
December 11, 2018--China Exchanges Services Company Limited (CESC) today published the 2017 Report on
Belt and Road Initiative Participation by Listed Companies.
CESC will use the report to adjust the constituents of its CES Belt and Road Index (CES OBOR), an index designed to reflect the stock price performance of listed companies actively participating in the Belt and Road Initiative. The adjustments will be announced in
due course.
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Source: index.cesc.com
East Asia Needs to Adapt its Development Model to Sustain its Historic Transformation, World Bank Says
December 10, 2018--East Asia's remarkably successful development model-a combination of outward-oriented growth, human capital development, and sound economic governance-needs to be adjusted to effectively address emerging external and internal challenges, a new World Bank report says.
A Resurgent East Asia, Navigating a Changing World argues that the tremendous progress seen in the region is not guaranteed in the future. The development model that spurred the so-called East Asian Miracle will have to adapt to changing technologies, slowing trade growth, and changing country circumstances, if progress is to be sustained.
view the World Bank Report: A Resurgent East Asia< Navigating a Changing World
Source: World Bank
Japan Q3 GDP fall revised lower to 2.5% drop
December 9, 2018--Japan's economy shrank much more than initially reported in the third quarter, according to a revised estimate from Japan's cabinet office.
Gross domestic product fell at an annualised pace of 2.5 per cent in the three months through September, according to a second reading released on Monday.
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Source: FT.com
SGX reports market statistics for November 2018
December 7, 2018--Single-stock DLCs launched during month increased overall activity of listed structured products
Freight Derivatives volume hits record high
Securities
Total Securities market turnover value was at S$21.6 billion, down 11% month-on-month (m-o-m) and down 24% year-on-year (y-o-y), over 21 trading days.
There were 23 trading days in October 2018 and 22 in November 2017.
Securities daily average value (SDAV) was S$1.03 billion, down 3% m-o-m and down 21% y-o-y.
Market turnover value of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) was S$146 million, down 40% m-o-m and down 36% y-o-y.
Market turnover value of structured warrants and Daily Leveraged Certificates (DLCs) was S$2.02 billion, up 11% m-o-m and up 6% y-o-y.
There were 112 new bond listings, raising S$68.8 billion.
Total market capitalisation value of 739 listed companies stood at S$949.1 billion as of end-November 2018
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Source: Singapore Exchange (SGX)
IMF Working Papers -The Long-Run Trend of Residential Investment in China
December 7, 2018--In this paper we analyze the fundamental drivers of China's residential investment as a share of its GDP. Our analysis indicates that the economic structural changes that led to rebalancing toward consumption were the key driver of the rising residential investment to GDP ratio in China.
We project that residential investment would moderate from the current level of 9 percent of GDP to around 6 percent by 2024, and its contribution to real GDP growth would decline gradually from currently about half percent of GDP to slightly negative over this period, barring policy intervention. The decline in the growth contribution of residential investment reflects the projected somewhat slower pace of rebalancing going forward and the envisaged increases in labor costs due to demographic changes.
view the IMF Working Papers -The Long-Run Trend of Residential Investment in China
Source: IMF
IMF Working Paper-China's Bond Market and Global Financial Markets
December 7, 2018--Summary:
A cross-country comparative analysis shows that there is substantial room for further integration of China into global financial markets, especially in the case of the international bond market. A further successful liberalization of the Chinese bond market would encompass not only loosening bond market regulations, but also further developing of other markets, notably the foreign exchange market.
Even though the increased integration of China into international capital markets would increase its exposure to the global financial cycle, the costs in terms of monetary autonomy would not be large given China's size and especially under a well-articulated macroeconomic framework.
view the IMF Working Paper-China's Bond Market and Global Financial Markets
Source: IMF
IMF Working Papers-Macroeconomic Effects of Japan's Demographics: Can Structural Reforms Reverse Them?
Yes, partly. This paper studies the potential role of structural reforms in improving Japan's outlook using the IMF's Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) with newly-added demographic features.
Implementation of a not-fully-believed path of structural reforms can significantly offset the adverse effect of Japan's demographic headwinds-a declining and ageing population-on real GDP (by about 15 percent in the next 40 years), but would not boost inflation or contribute substantially to stabilizing public debt. Alternatively, implementation of a fully-credible structural reform program can contribute significantly to stabilizing public debt because of the resulting increase in inflation towards the Bank of Japan's target, while achieving the same positive long-run effects on real GDP. If no reforms are implemented, severe demographic headwinds are expected to reduce Japan's real GDP by over 25 percent in the next 40 years.
Cambodia Continues to Grow Despite Global Economic Challenges: World Bank
November 28, 2018-Surges in domestic consumption and exports drive the economy
While global economic prospects continue to moderate, and risks have heightened, Cambodia continues to grow, according to the latest edition of the World Bank's Cambodia Economic Update report, released today.
The growth rate is expected to be marginally higher than last year, reaching 7.1 percent in 2018, driven primarily by domestic consumption and exports.
Following a gradual recovery in the second half of 2017, Cambodia's exports surged, supported largely by strong demand in the United States and the European Union.
view the World Bank Cambodia Economic Update-Recent Economic Developments and Outlook
Source: World Bank
WAAAX vs. FAANG: How does the Aussie tech sector stack up against its US counterparts?
November 28, 2018--The Australian technology sector has enjoyed solid return performance in recent years, so much so that some of the leading companies have been given their own acronym-the so-called "WAAAX" stocks.
As this note demonstrates, however, our home grown technology boom appears somewhat frothier than is the case in the United States, where share price performance among the "FAANG" stocks has been even stronger and appears more fundamentally justified.
Australian technology vs. the NASDAQ-100 Index
The table below identifies the top companies in the S&P/ASX 200 Information Technology Sector and the US-based NASDAQ-100 Index* respectively.
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Source: BetaShares
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