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China's debt is still piling up-and the pile-up is getting faster
March 19, 2019--With looser monetary policy, China's policymakers hope to encourage banks to lend more to the private sector. This seems to imply a change from the deleveraging drive begun in mid-2017.
Although this should be good news for China's growth in the short term, such a continued accumulation of debt cannot but imply deflationary pressures and a lower potential growth further down the road.
If you think China's monetary policy became more lax in 2018, wait for 2019. Pushed by gloomier activity data, China’s policymakers have moved from an orthodox monetary policy to a much more heterodox one.
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Source: Bruegel
IMF Working paper-The Impact of Rapid Aging and Pension Reform on Savings and the Labor Supply: The
Case of China1
March 18, 2019--Summary:
We study, both empirically and quantitatively, the role of savings and the labor supply in self-insurance channels over the life cycle when one faces not only idiosyncratic income risks, but also changes in longevity risk and pension benefits.
We pick China as a case study since China has undergone a dramatic process of rapid aging and a tremendous reduction in social security benefits for the period 1995-2009. We find that both savings and the labor supply are quantitatively important self-insurance channels in responding to changes in longevity risk and pension benefits, and the responses via adjustment to savings and labor supply have significant macroeconomic implications. Applying the model to China, we find that the pension reform and rapid aging together contribute 55 percent of the increase in the household saving rate from 1995 to 2009, and they jointly capture about 64 percent of the drastic increase in the labor supply for the same period.
view the IMF Working paper-The Impact of Rapid Aging and Pension Reform on Savings and the Labor Supply
Source: IMF
SET Well-Being Index set for launch on April 1
March 18, 2019--The Stock Exchange of Thailand plans next month to launch the SET Well-Being Index (SETWB), a new index consisting of listed securities in well-being-related sectors that are key contributors to Thai economic expansion, allowing investors to benefit from the growth potential of these promising sectors.
The SET sectors making up the index are: Agribusiness, Commerce, Fashion, Food and Beverage, Health Care Service, Tourism and Leisure, and Transportation and Logistics.
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Source: nationmultimedia.com
Australian ETF Review-BetaShares Australian ETF Review-February 2019
March 13, 2019--During February, the Australian ETF industry set a new record, with its largest every monthly funds under management increase. The industry ended the month at a record $44.8B, with market cap increasing by 5.4% (+$2.3B).
With markets rebounding, the industry growth this month came primarily from price increases, which accounted for ˜80% of the monthly result-the remaining ˜20% being due to net inflows of ˜$524m
International equities were once again the category with the greatest level of inflows, followed by Australian Bonds and Cash
From a performance perspective, given the tremendous rebound in their equity market, Chinese exposures performed most strongly
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Source: BetaShares
The Future of China's Bond Market
March 13, 2019--Summary:
China's bond market is destined to play an increasingly important role, both at home and abroad. And the inclusion of the country's bonds in global indexes will be a milestone for its financial market integration, bringing big opportunities as well as challenges for policymakers and investors alike.
This calls for a good understanding of China's bond market structure, its unique characteristics, and areas where reforms are needed. This volume comprehensively analyzes the different segments of China's bond market, from sovereign, policy bank, and credit bonds, to the rapidly growing local government bond market. It also covers bond futures, green bonds, and asset-backed securities, as well as China's offshore market, which has played a major role in onshore market development.
view the The Future of China's Bond Market
Source: IMF
IMF Staff Concludes 2019 Article IV Mission to Korea
March 12, 2019--Korea is facing short-and medium-term headwinds to growth, which requires policy action.
Fiscal policy needs to become more expansionary through a substantial supplementary budget, and monetary policy should be clearly accommodative.
The government should continue to implement structural reforms to support growth, including by reducing regulations in the services sector.
An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team led by Tarhan Feyzioglu visited Seoul during February 27-March 12 to conduct discussions for the 2019 Article IV Consultation. Mr. Feyzioglu issued the following statement at the conclusion of its visit:
"Korea's economy has strong fundamentals. The country has a skilled labor force, strong manufacturing base, a stable financial system, low public debt, and ample foreign exchange reserves. Per-capita income recently exceeded thirty-thousand dollars. These achievements are a testament to Korea’s strong public institutions and generally prudent macroeconomic management.
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Source: IMF
IMF Staff Country Report-Malaysia: Selected Issues
March 11, 2019--CORPORATE SAVING IN MALAYSIA
A. Introduction
1. IMF analysis suggests that Malaysia's current account (CA) surplus is higher than
warranted by medium-term fundamentals and desired policies. National income account data up to 2015 suggest that private non-financial corporations could be a significant contributor to the
CA surplus, followed by private financial firms.
Given the importance of private non-financial corporations in Malaysia's national saving, staff undertook an analysis of saving to understand the
history and identify the drivers.
view the IMF Staff Country Report-Malaysia: Selected Issues
Source: IMF
Belt and Road Initiative in Central Asia and the Caucasus
March 11, 2019--Story Highlights
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) infrastructure projects are expected to cut trade costs and enhance foreign investment in Central Asia and South Caucasus countries.
A key issue for countries is how to maximize BRI benefits and minimize risks of unsustainable debt, and environmental and social costs.
Analysis of BRI projects is difficult because no comprehensive dataset exists with project costs, financing terms, and other conditions.
The massive Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) plans to build roads, railways, seaports and other trade infrastructure in dozens of countries in the Eurasian continent. The BRI aims to connect Asia to Europe, and the initiative has steadily expanded economic corridors and projects as far as Africa.
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Source: World Bank
Funds likely to launch commodity derivatives schemes by early FY20
March 11, 2019--The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) will amend the Mutual Fund Amendment Regulations of 2018 and the Portfolio Management Amendment Regulations 2016 enabling mutual funds and portfolio managers to participate in the agri and non-agri commodity derivatives segment (CDS) within a month.
The regulator will then notify the same after intimating the finance ministry, a person aware of the development told ET. Sebi approved MF and PMSes' participation at its board meet on March 1.
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Source: The Economic Times of India
HKEX to launch futures contracts for MSCI China share index
March 11, 2019-- Global index publisher MSCI and the Hong Kong stock exchange said on Monday they will launch futures contracts on the MSCI China A Index to provide a hedging tool as international investor interest in Chinese mainland shares surges.
The license agreement between MSCI and Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd (HKEX), which will launch the new product, comes less than two weeks after MSCI announced it would quadruple the weighting of Chinese shares in its global benchmarks later this year.
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Source: Reuters
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