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China's 'two sessions' points to determination to rebuff Trump
March 11, 2025--China's leadership plans to increase the deficit, lower inflation rates and increase manufacturing capacity whilst supporting critical technologies
China's most important annual political gathering, the so-called 'two sessions', has as one of its main objectives the setting out of the year's priority economic targets. This was done this year by Premier Li Qiang, on 5 March.
He offered to the National People's Congress and to China's most important consultative body, the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, a guarantee that the Chinese economy would be resilient against the Trump administration's policies, starting with the 20% minimum additional tariffs the United States has put on Chinese goods.
The most obvious way to achieve resilience is to maintain the same 5% GDP growth target as last year -which is what Li Qiang did. However, China barely reached the 5% target last year, notwithstanding a huge trade surplus of $1 trillion. Li Qiang therefore sought to show how the commitment would be met.
Three policy changes are worth mentioning: laxer policies, lower prices and more manufacturing supply.
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Source: bruegel.org
IMF-Korea in a Changing Global Trade Landscape: Korea
March 5, 2025-Summary
The global trade landscape is being reshaped by geoeconomic fragmentation and the rise of industrial policies. This paper studies the impact of these trends on the export-oriented Korean economy. It documents both positive and negative effects of U.S.-China trade tensions, technology and supply chain restrictions, and industrial policies of major economies on Korea's trade and FDI, particularly that of its strategic sectors.
To navigate the changing global trade landscape, Korea needs to focus on promoting innovation to maintain competitiveness, diversifying export destinations and supply chains, and expanding exports of services.
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Source: imf.org
IMF-Transforming the Future: The Impact of Artificial Intelligence in Korea
March 5, 2025-Summary
This paper examines the economic impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Korea. Korea is among the global frontrunners in AI adoption, with higher adoption rates among larger, younger, and technologically advanced firms. AI holds the promise for boosting productivity and output, though the effects are more pronounced among larger and mature Korean firms.
About half of jobs are exposed to AI, with higher exposures among female, younger, more educated, and higher income workers. Korea's strong innovation and digital infrastructure highlights its AI readiness, while enhancing labor market flexibility and social safety nets are essential to fully harness AI's potential.
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Source: imf.org
IMF-Malaysia: 2025 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
March 3, 2025-Summary
Malaysia's economic performance has significantly improved in 2024, supported by strong domestic and external demand. Disinflation is taking hold and external pressures have eased.
The favorable economic conditions provide a window of opportunity to build macroeconomic policy buffers and accelerate structural reforms, especially as risks to growth are tilted to the downside amid an uncertain global outlook. Risks to the inflation outlook are tilted to the upside, including from global commodity price shocks and potential wage pressures.
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Source: imf.org
Infographic-Visualizing Chinese EV Market Share Overseas
February 28, 2025--China is the undisputed global powerhouse of the EV industry, leading in both domestic sales and overall production. Chinese brands were responsible for 62% of EV global sales in 2024.
As the global EV market has expanded, in 2024, over 17 million units were sold. Chinese manufacturers have aggressively pursued international opportunities, offering affordable vehicles that often undercut local competitors.
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Source: visualcapitalist.com
IMF-India: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Financial System Stability Assessment
February 28, 2025-Summary
India's financial system has withstood the pandemic well and has become more resilient since the 2017 FSAP. Nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs-especially nonbank financial companies (NBFCs) providing credit with wholesale financing-and market financing have grown, making the financial system more diverse and interconnected.
The role of the state has diminished, yet it remains significant, including in using the financial system to pursue social and public finance goals.
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Source: imf.org
India: Accelerated Reforms Needed to Speed up Growth and Achieve High-Income Status by 2047
February 28, 2025—A new World Bank report, launched today, notes that India will need to grow by 7.8 percent on average over the next 22 years to achieve the country's aspirations of reaching high-income status by 2047.
The new India Country Economic Memorandum titled 'Becoming a High-Income Economy in a Generation', finds that this target is possible.
Recognizing India's fast pace of growth averaging 6.3 percent between 2000 and 2024[1], the report notes that India's past achievements provide the foundation for its future ambitions. Getting there however would require reforms and their implementation to be as ambitious as the target itself.
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Source: World Bank
Thailand: Selected Issues
February 20, 2025--Summary
Summary A. Introduction
1. Thailand's debt ceiling plays a central role in safeguarding fiscal prudence. Thailand has
a comprehensive set of fiscal rules to ensure fiscal responsibility and debt sustainability (Table 1).
Among these, the public debt ceiling, stipulated in the 2018 Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA), serves as
a key anchor guiding fiscal policies.
The debt rule has a broad coverage of the public sector-encompassing debt of the general government, state-owned enterprises, government agencies, and
guaranteed debt of the special financial institutions. The Fiscal Policy Committee (FPC) determines
the level of the debt ceiling, which is currently set at 70 percent of GDP. The ceiling was raised from
60 percent of GDP in September 2021 to provide more space for COVID-19 related measures.
view Thailand: Selected Issues
Source: IMF
ETFs jump to two-thirds of all Taiwan fund assets
February 17, 2025-Growth sparks regulatory concerns about growing imbalance between passive and active investing
The rising dominance of the exchange traded funds sector in Taiwan's asset management market is continuing at pace despite regulatory calls to halt the growing imbalance between passive and active investing.
Assets in Taiwan's locally listed ETFs surged by 55 per cent in 2024 to reach $195.88bn and now account for 66.1 per cent of all onshore public funds industry assets, according to data from Keystone Intelligence.
At the end of 2023 the local ETF sector had a 56.7 per cent market share of assets, while in 2018 ETF assets stood at just 27.5 per cent of the total market.
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Source: ft.com
China explores relaxing rules to allow multi-asset ETFs
February 17, 2025-Regulator aims to achieve 'significant growth' in index-based investment
The potential moves are part of China's ongoing efforts to boost longer-term stock holdings and revive its capital markets, which in January included telling fund firms to increase their A-share holdings by at least 10 per cent annually over the next three years.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission has said in a statement that introducing multi-asset ETFs and other index products must be done "steadily and prudently", on the premise that "risks are measurable and controllable and investors are effectively protected".
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Source: ftchineselive.com
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