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Singapore cuts growth outlook as trade war bites
August 13, 2019--Singapore further cut its annual growth forecast on Tuesday as the escalating US-China trade war hammers exports, in another ominous sign for Asia's trade-reliant economies.
The government said it expected growth of 0.0-1.0 percent this year, sharply down from the 1.5-2.5 percent previously estimated, marking the second downward revision this year. The economy expanded 3.2 percent in 2018.
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Source: france24.com
New Zealand just became the first country to legalize salary payments in cryptocurrencies (BTC)
August 13, 2019--August 13, 2019--New Zealand will legally allow companies to pay salaries in cryptocurrency starting September 1, becoming the first nation to do so, according to a Financial Times report.
The country requires the preferred cryptocurrency to be pegged to a standard currency and directly convertible into a normal form of payment. This stipulation allows bitcoin to replace the New Zealand dollar on workers' paychecks.
Companies paying workers in cryptocurrency can deduct income tax through the country's pay-as-you-earn plan.
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New Zealand has become the first country to legalize cryptocurrency salaries, according to a report Monday from the Financial Times.
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Source: markets.businessinsider.com
China's central bank digital currency is "ready" after 5 years of development
August 10, 2019--A senior official at China's central bank announced at the China Finance 40 Group meeting today that the country will soon roll out its central bank digital currency (CBDC.)
Mu Changchun, Deputy Chief in the Payment and Settlement Division of the People's Bank of China (PBOC,) stated that the CBDC prototype exists and the PBOC's Digital Money Research Group has already fully adopted the blockchain architecture for the currency.
China's CBDC will not rely entirely on a pure blockchain architecture, as this would not allow the currency to achieve the throughput required for retail usage.
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Source: theblockcrypto.com
China's Economic Outlook in Six Charts
August 9, 2019--China's economic growth is moderating and is projected to be 6.2 percent in 2019. In its latest annual assessment of China's economy, the IMF found the quality of growth had improved in three ways in 2018. First, the pace of debt accumulation had slowed. Second, the financial system is better regulated and supervised.
Finally, the current account surplus is no longer excessive. But trade tensions cloud the outlook, and reforms need to deepen if this progress is to be continued.
After slowing last year, debt accumulation accelerated in the first quarter of 2019. By avoiding further stimulus measures, China would help check the pace of debt accumulation. However, some modest fiscal stimulus would be appropriate to offset the negative impact to the economy of higher U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods.
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Source: IMF
Japan preliminary Q2 GDP: 0.4% q/q (vs. expected 0.1%
August 8, 2019--Japanese economic growth data for the second quarter of 2019
GDP (seasonally adjusted) for Q2, preliminary, 0.4% q/q ...a big beat, at least on this early indication
expected 0.1%, prior 0.6%
GDP Annualized (seasonally adjusted) for Q2, preliminary 1.8% y/y
expected 0.5%, prior 2.2%
GDP Nominal (seasonally adjusted) for Q2, preliminary 0.4% q/q
expected 0.1%, prior 0.8%
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Source: forexlive.com
China's new renminbi level set to pressure Asia currencies
August 8, 2019--China's central bank set the midpoint for the renminbi's trading band above seven to the dollar on Thursday for the first time since the global financial crisis, allowing further weakness in a move that could drag down currencies across the Asia-Pacific region.
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Source: FT.com
Pension funds to invest $500m in Indian infrastructure
August 6, 2019--Two of the world's largest retirement funds are to invest at least $500m in Indian infrastructure, in a boost for Narendra Modi's efforts to attract foreign investment even as India's economy faces a slowdown.
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Source: FT.com
Japanese pension funds put record amounts into alternatives
August 4, 2019--Allocation to domestic government bonds falls to 18.3%
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Source: FT.com
Chinese Yuan Skids to 2019 Low as Trump Ramps Up Trade Conflict
August 2, 2019--Threat of more tariffs further clouds Beijing’s efforts to manage its currency
China's yuan slid to its weakest level of the year, nearing the symbolic level of 7 per dollar, after President Trump threatened to impose more tariffs on Chinese imports.
The prospect that tariffs could be extended to essentially all Chinese imports has further clouded China's efforts to manage its currency. A weaker yuan makes it cheaper for U.S. buyers to purchase Chinese goods, helping offset the impact of higher tariffs. But China doesn't want to prompt an exodus of capital, which in turn could prompt further currency...
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Source: wsj.com
IMF Working Paper-Labor Market Slack and the Output Gap: The Case of Korea
August 2, 2019--Summary:
Output gap estimates are widely used to inform macroeconomic policy decisions, including in Korea. The main determinant of these estimates is the measure of labor market slack. The traditional measure of unemployment in Korea yields an incomplete estimate of labor market slack, given that many workers prefer involuntary part-time jobs or leaving the labor force rather than registering as unemployed.
This paper discusses a way in which the measure of unemployment can be broadened to yield a more accurate measure of labor market slack. This broader measure is then used to estimate the output gap using a multivariate filter, yielding a more meaningful measure of the output gap.
view the IMF Working Paper-Labor Market Slack and the Output Gap: The Case of Korea
Source: IMF