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A Post-Coronavirus Recovery in Asia—Extending a "Whatever it Takes" Lifeline to Small Businesses
April 23, 2020--Asia was hit hard by the first wave of the coronavirus, as the sudden stop in activity struck households and firms simultaneously-first in China, then elsewhere in Asia, and now globally. Policymakers responded swiftly with aggressive spending to support the medical response and vulnerable households and firms. And central banks took swift actions to expand liquidity.
While this helped support financial markets and sentiment, we may be on the cusp of a new, more dangerous phase of "economic deleveraging" as firms struggle to repay loans and pay workers in the face of a sudden collapse in cashflow and tighter credit.
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Source: IMF
China suffers historic economic slump with hard recovery ahead
April 17, 2020--The coronavirus pushed China's economy into its first contraction in decades in the first quarter, with the spread of the disease around the world now leaving the nation reliant on fragile domestic demand to spur a recovery.
Gross domestic product shrank 6.8% from a year ago, the worst performance since at least 1992 when official releases of quarterly GDP started and missing the median forecast of a 6% drop. China’s economy hasn’t contracted on a full-year basis since the end of the Mao era in the 1970s.
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Source: bangkokpost.com
Depression, and not stagflation, could haunt China in 2020
April 17, 2020--This opinion piece was originally published in Asia Times and Medium
China's GDP in the first quarter of the year has surprised nobody but the devil is in the details. Local retail sales continued to fall in March (-16%), marginally better than during the peak of the Covid19 outbreak in January and February.
The continuation of the slump in domestic demand clearly stands out when compared with the return to production in March. In fact, industrial production hardly declined in March (1.1%) after a collapse in January-February. More importantly, the vanishing demand cannot be explained by external factors only. In fact, export growth in March was negative (-12.5%) but less than that domestic retail sales.
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Source: bruegel.org
BetaShares Australian ETF Review-March 2020
April 15, 2020--The Australian ETF industry suffered a second consecutive month of negative growth in March, as sharemarkets around the world were savaged by the COVID-19 crisis. However trading volumes exploded, with turnover hitting an all-time high of ˜$18B, shattering the previous monthly record of $7.2B.
Market cap
ASX Exchange Traded Product Market Cap: $57.2B
Market cap change for month: -10.6%, -$6.8B -biggest % monthly fall since the GFC, largest $value fall on record
Market cap growth for the last 12 months: 24%, + $11.1B
Comment: Industry FuM fell by $6.8B (-10.6% MoM decline) to end March at $57.2B. This represents the largest monthly FuM decline in dollar terms on record as well as the biggest % monthly fall since the global financial crisis
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Source: betashares.com.au
BlackRock. Neuberger Berman apply to set up China mutual fund unit-China securities regulator
April 1, 2020---BlackRock and Neuberger Berman have applied to set up mutual fund units in China, according to China's securities regulator.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has accepted applications from the two asset managers, according to CSRC's official website.
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Source: FT.com
How the coronavirus threatens Asia-Pacific's $7tn pensions market
April 1, 2020--Sector across region hit by fears of panicked mass withdrawals due to pandemic
The coronavirus outbreak has piled pressure on Asia-Pacific’s multitrillion-dollar pensions industry, with the pandemic raising fears that retirees could make a panicked dash to withdraw their investments.
The coronavirus outbreak has piled pressure on Asia-Pacific's multitrillion-dollar pensions industry, with the pandemic raising fears that retirees could make a panicked dash to withdraw their investments.
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Source: FT.com
East Asia and Pacific: Countries Must Act Now to Mitigate Economic Shock of COVID-19
March 30, 2020--The virus that triggered a supply shock in China has now caused a global shock. Developing economies in East Asia and the Pacific (EAP), recovering from trade tensions and struggling with COVID-19, now face the prospect of a global financial shock and recession.
Sound macroeconomic policies and prudent financial regulation have equipped most EAP countries to deal with normal tremors. But we are witnessing an unusual combination of disruptive and mutually reinforcing events. Significant economic pain seems unavoidable in all countries. Countries must take action now-including urgent investments in healthcare capacity and targeted fiscal measures-to mitigate some of the immediate impacts, according to East Asia and Pacific in the Time of COVID-19, the World Bank's April 2020 Economic Update for East Asia and the Pacific.
view the World Bank-East Asia and the Pacific in the Time of COVID-19-Regional Economic Update, April 2020
Source: World Bank
SET ensures stability of the Thai capital market amid global high volatility
March 23, 2020--Pakorn Peetathawatchai, President at The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) said SET group has prudently employed a series of measures to mitigate contagion risk caused by the widespread of COVID-19 pandemic, to ensure the orderly functioning and stability of SET, Market for Alternative Investment (mai),
Thailand Futures Exchange PCL (TFEX), Thailand Clearing House Co., Ltd. (TCH), and Thailand Securities Depository Co., Ltd. (TSD), in the situation of heightened volatility in the global and domestic financial and capital markets.
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Source: The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET)
Philippine stock market suspends trade as coronavirus spreads
March 16, 2020--The Philippine Stock Exchange suspended trade indefinitely on Tuesday, citing the safety of traders and staff in the face of the coronavirus pandemic.
The move, which was announced by the exchange overnight and takes effect Tuesday, is part of a broader quarantine ordered by Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte to curb the outbreak.
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Source: Reuters
IMF Staff Country Report-Australia: Selected Issues
March 5, 2020--Why has business investment slowed down in Australia?1
As in many advanced economies, non-mining business investment in Australia has slowed down since the global financial crisis, weighing on productivity growth.
Long-term empirical and simulation-based analyses suggest that global factors such as rising policy uncertainty and weaker commodity prices have been key drivers of the slowdown, while in the short term, a renewed escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions could spill over to investment and growth in Australia.
Yet, domestic factors are also at play, including domestic policy uncertainty and financial constraints, especially for smaller and younger firms. The pace of product market reforms can also impact business investment. Australia can promote business investment by reducing domestic policy uncertainty (for example, in energy policy), easing credit constraints for small-and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), incentivizing R&D, and continuing with product market and tax reforms.
view the IMF Staff Country Report-Australia: Selected Issues
Source: IMF
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