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Asia Faces Stronger Growth, but Further Rebalancing Critical, Says IMF's Asia-Pacific Regional Economic Outlook
April 27, 2012--Growth in Asia is expected to pick up this year, after slowing in the last quarter of 2011, but Asian policymakers now face the challenging task of adjusting policies to support stable, non-inflationary growth, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in its latest Regional Economic Outlook (REO) for Asia and the Pacific, which was released in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, today.
Asia has continued to enjoy robust domestic demand against the background of fragile global growth. This has been reflected in low unemployment and robust credit growth in the region. Inflation expectations have also picked up in many countries, and capital inflows into emerging Asia have rebounded so far in 2012.
The IMF forecasts regional growth will be 6 percent this year, roughly the same level as in 2011, and about 6½ percent in 2013. But there remains considerable regional variation. While emerging Asia will remain the fastest growing region in the world, led by China and India, expanding about 8 ¼ percent and close to 7 percent, respectively, this year, industrial Asia is projected to grow only at 2.2 percent.
Further reforms needed to sustain Korean growth and social cohesion
April 26, 2012-- Korea recovered faster and more vigorously from the global crisis than most OECD countries, but strong economic growth alone will not be enough to address the fundamental challenges posed by its rapidly ageing population and rising inequality, according to the OECD's latest Economic Survey of Korea.
The report, presented today in Seoul by OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría and Korean Minister of Strategy and Finance Jae-Wan Bahk, notes Korea’s current resilience, despite the continuing global slowdown. The OECD projects Korean economic growth in 2012 of around 3 ½ percent, and expresses confidence that the government has sufficient fiscal and monetary policy space to respond to any further deterioration in the global outlook.
view the Overview-Economic Survey of Korea 2012
Goldman India Gold ETF trading volume surges 20 times on Akshaya Tritiya
April 26, 2012--Indian's were trading gold like crazy on Akshaya Tritiya, or atleast the trading volumes of Goldman Sachs Gold ETF seems to indicate. Akshaya Tritiya fell on Tuesday April 24 this year
Goldman Sachs India Gold ETF, also known as GOLDBEES, recorded a massive trading volume of 15,36,489 units at the National Stock Exchange of India (NSE) on Tuesday. This is more than 20 times higher than the month's best of 76,117 units traded on the previous day (Monday) of Akshaya Tritiya.
South Korean growth slips to 2.8%
April 26, 2012--South Korean economic growth has slipped to the weakest level in two and a half years as the world's seventh-biggest exporter faces strong headwinds from European austerity programmes and a slowdown in China.
Seoul’s growth slowed to 2.8 per cent in the first quarter compared with a year ago. Last year South Korea’s economy grew 3.6 per cent, down from 6.3 per cent in 2010, when the country bounced back strongly from the global financial crisis.
China Food Price Tracker: Cheaper food
April 26, 2012--Most food items saw price declines during April 11-20 due to warmer weather and restored supply. Vegetable and pork prices decreased the most, while the price for edible oil was raised by major edible oil producers.
Going forward, we see vegetable and pork prices dropping further as we enter summer. Headline CPI is expected to fall gradually during April-May and then to 2% in June/July when the high base effect kicks in.
Food prices on average have declined by 1.3% since 1 April, and vegetable prices have declined the most Food prices declined on average by 0.66% during 1-10 April and by another 0.66% during 11-20 April (Figure 1). The abnormally cold weather in early March pushed some vegetable prices higher and contributed to the CPI rebound in March. Since then, most vegetable prices have returned to their normal levels as the warmer weather helped restore the supply of greens. One exception is the celery cabbage price, which has increased by 66% since mid-February.
China Strategy: Entering 2Q: Cautiously optimistic
April 25, 2012--China has remained on track until now for a soft-landing scenario. However, we maintain our cautious view that growth may not have bottomed out yet, as more ambitious policy easing is not likely to start until mid-year.
With such a cautious view, we believe that in 2Q, China’s energy, property, utilities and Macau gaming sectors will likely outperform, while the outlook for the second half of the year remains unclear. Meanwhile, we have downgraded China’s Internet sector to neutral as valuation appears less attractive now.
Growth may not have bottomed yet, as more ambitious policy easing may not start until mid-year Average CPI declined in 1Q, while growth indicators are mixed, but they generally suggest weakening momentum, although accelerated construction of social housing has provided some buffer. Liquidity conditions have improved, but policy has not yet been eased significantly. Particularly, we believe the rebound in new lending in March is not sustainable, as it was mostly driven by seasonal factors. Assuming that more ambitious policy easing may start around mid-2012, when both inflation and growth would drop further, the economy may not rebound on a more sustainable basis until the second half of the year.
With a cautious view on growth in 2Q, we maintain Overweight on China’s property, energy, utilities, and Macau gaming sectors The property sector may see sales boost in May and June because of the developers’ strong new sales pipeline and stronger buyer interest. With inflation trending down, the recent domestic oil price hike and possible utility tariff hikes would benefit the energy and utility sectors. We also maintain our view that China’s more relaxed policy stance would be a potential catalyst for Macau gaming. However, we have downgraded China’s Internet sector to neutral, as valuation is less attractive now and industry fundamentals are deteriorating.
read moreview report-China Strategy: Entering 2Q: Cautiously optimistic
China's slowdown not over
April 25, 2012--Our last issue of Macro Matters reached the conclusion it may be best to sell and reduce beta into this rally and come back when the contours of China's slowdown and the policy response become more certain.
According to our sales people some clients they spoke with didn’t agree with this view. Indeed, many felt China had bottomed or is bottoming and a pick up lies ahead. Thus, go long China and raise the beta of the portfolio.
We disagree with the notion that China has bottomed or is bottoming now (see our recent report "China: is the worst over"). In fact, China may not bottom until much later this year and the bounce may be much more modest than the market seems to expect.
TSE publish the index value of TSE Home Price Index for February.
April 24, 2012--TSE has published the index value of TSE Home Price Index for February on April 24, 2012.
The index value of TSE Home Price Index (Used Condominium, Composite of Tokyo Metro Area) is 79.35 points. The index value of TSE Home Price Index (Used Condominium, Tokyo) is 83.36 points.
Asia slips amid uncertainty in Europe
April 24, 2012--Most Asian shares lost ground for a fourth consecutive day as political uncertainty in France and the Netherlands, coupled with poor economic data from the region, revived concerns about the eurozone.
The MSCI Asia Pacific index slipped 0.3 per cent with Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average down 0.7 per cent and South Korea’s Kospi Composite index off 0.6 per cent. But Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index inched up 0.1 per cent while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng index gained 0.3 per cent as property shares and mainland lenders rallied.
DB-Equity Research-Asia-Pac-ETF Market Weekly Review : ETP AUM remains at $100bn level amid mixed markets
April 23, 2012--Market Review
The Asia-Pacific region had mixed markets last week. In all, Japan (Nikkei 225) lost 0.80%, Korea (KOSPI2) sank by 1.88%, China (CSI 300) advanced by 1.80%, Hong Kong (HSI) increased by 1.50%, Singapore (FSSTI) grew by 0.22%, and Australia (S&P/ASX 200) gained 1% over the previous week.
New Launch Review
There was no new listing during last week in the Asia-Pacific region.
Turnover Review
Asia-Pacific ETP turnover totaled $4.9bn for the last week, 5.8% down from the previous week’s total. South Korea continues to be on top of the turnover ranking with $1.8bn, followed by China ($1.2bn), Hong Kong ($1bn), Japan ($0.5bn), and Taiwan ($0.1bn). Among Equity ETFs, Emerging Country, Leveraged Strategy, Asia Pac Developed Country, and Short Strategy ETFs had total turnover of $2.5bn, $0.9bn, $0.7bn and $0.3bn respectively. Under the Commodity asset class, turnover in Gold ETPs totaled $60m for the last week.
Assets Under Management Review
Asia-Pacific ETP AUM ended the week with a marginal increase and ended at $100bn. On a year-to-date basis, Asia-Pacific ETP market is up by $8.5bn or 9.3% above last year’s closing.
