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Singapore recession risk looms after August exports shrink
September 17, 2012--Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) in August fell more than expected, raising the prospect of the city-state entering into a recession as exports to the European Union plunged.
The trade-dependent Southeast Asian city-state said on Monday non-oil domestic exports (NODX) fell 10.6 percent from a year earlier, hurt by a 10.4 percent drop in electronics and a 28.7 percent plummet in shipments to the EU, its largest market. On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, NODX shrank 9.1 percent after contracting 3.6 percent in July. Electronics exports contracted 14.8 percent in August from July after seasonal adjustments, while non-electronics NODX shrank 7.1 percent, trade agency International Enterprises Singapore said in a separate email.
China Macro-Is 7.5% still within reach?
September 17, 2012--Following our recent trip to Beijing, we revised our 2012 GDP growth forecast to 7.7% from 8.1%, and 2013 GDP growth to 8.3% from 8.5%.
Our growth forecasts used to be one of the lowest relative to others, but are now amongst the most optimistic. We think the GDP growth target of 7.5-8% this year is within reach, and see signs of stabilization in 3Q and 4Q followed by a mild bottoming out in 1Q13. Policy makers are cautious, which has made them more backward looking in this round of easing. While investors are waiting for them to act more decisively, policy makers are waiting for more bad data to justify their next move.
The low base effect will help enhance the YoY growth figure in 3Q
In previous reports, we pointed out that 3Q will benefit from a low base effect. Indeed, if we look at QoQ growth, 3Q08 recorded the worst growth since 2000 because of the global recession, and 3Q11 was the second worst due to tight policies. This low base effect will help enhance the YoY growth figure in 3Q. Similarly for 2013, the low base effect and accelerated policy easing after the new government takes power will facilitate a decent bottoming out.
DB-Global Equity Index and ETF Research-Asia-Pac ETF Market Weekly Review : ETP AUM added $3bn amid bullish equity markets
September 17, 2012--Market Review
Last week, all the markets in the Asia-Pacific region were in positive territory except China. Compared to the week before, from north to south:
Japan (Nikkei 225) +3.24%
Korea (KOSPI2) +4.33%
China (CSI 300) -0.07%
Hong Kong (HSI) +4.18%
Singapore (FSSTI) +1.95%
Australia (S&P/ASX 200) +1.48%
New Product Launch Review
There was no new ETP listing in the last week.
Turnover Review
Asia-Pacific ETP turnover totaled $7.1bn last week, 8.2% up from the previous week’s total. South Korea continued to top the turnover ranking with $3bn, followed by China ($1.5bn), Hong Kong ($1.2bn), Japan ($0.7bn), and Taiwan ($0.2bn). Among Equity ETFs, the Emerging Country, Leveraged Strategy, Asia-Pacific Developed Country, and Short Strategy ETFs had total turnovers of $3.2bn, $1.5bn, $1bn, and $0.8bn respectively. Among the Commodity asset class, turnover in Gold ETPs totaled $232mn.
Assets under Management Review
Last week, Asia-Pacific ETP AUM increased by $3bn and ended at $118.1bn. On a year-to-date basis, Asia-Pacific ETP market is up by $26.6bn or 29.1% above last year’s closing.
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http://pull.db-gmresearch.com/p/526-2C14/2694295/Asia-Pac_ETF_Market_Weekly_Review.pdf
Asia's Challenge: How to Be the Global Economic Growth Engine
While Asian economic growth is stronger than the rest of the world, the region must focus on how to remain the engine of global growth for the coming decades.
A key challenge for many Asian economies is how to address their ageing demographics, while not committing the same mistakes made by developed countries.
September 13, 2012--While the US economy remains weak and Europe struggles with its debt crisis, growth in Asia has been relatively robust, with fundamentals much stronger than when the region was hit by severe financial turmoil more than 15 years ago.
“The challenge for the region is not to survive but rather to remain leading global growth,” Min Zhu, Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Washington DC, told participants in a session on Asia’s economic outlook on the final day of the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting of the New Champions. “Asia has to be the global growth engine for decades.”
But Asian economies must address pressing challenges and pursue the reforms necessary for them to sustain strong growth, Zhu warned. They need, for example, to invest in infrastructure and further develop manufacturing capabilities so that they are more productive and efficient. The region has yet to develop the bond market that has long been recognized as essential to strengthen the financial markets. Said Zhu: “To be able to lead, Asia obviously has to do more. Not just China but the whole region has to move more to a domestic consumption model.”
CSOP Asset Management First RQFII ETF tops rankings from day one: Initial and second RQFII quotas totalling 7Bn RMB
September 13, 2012--FTSE Group ("FTSE"), the global index provider, is delighted to announce the CSOP FTSE China A50 RQFII ETF is now the largest RQFII ETF.
The initial RQFII quota of 5Bn Renminbi (RMB) was allocated for IPO on 28 August and was fully taken up on the same day, establishing the CSOP FTSE China A50 RQFII ETF as the largest RQFII ETF, with Assets under Management (AUM) of US$m771.1 on the first day of trading. A further RMB2Bn was granted by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) for release on 12 September, and creation of the units of the fund was resumed immediately.
This is the first Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (RQFII) ETF from CSOP Asset Management Limited (“CSOP”), the Hong Kong incorporated subsidiary of China Southern Asset Management, one of the top five asset managers in China.
As China Aims to Transform its Economy, Time Is Ripe for a New Round of Reforms
September 12, 2012--China's new leaders could implement a fresh round of institutional reforms needed for long-term sustainable growth.
China should bolster the independence of the judiciary and promote the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises through financial reforms.
For more information about the Annual Meeting of the New Champions 2012, please visit:
http://www.weforum.org/newchampions
Tianjin, People’s Republic of China, 12 September 2012 – With a leadership change playing out and in the midst of implementing its current Five-Year Plan for sustainable and balanced growth and creating an innovative knowledge economy, China may be poised for a fresh round of reforms that are necessary to achieve its long-term development goals. “The coming three years are critical for the next 20,” Li Daokui, Director of the Center for China in the World Economy (CCWE), People’s Republic of China, told participants in a session on the global implications of China’s transformation at the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting of the New Champions. “We still have a lot of institutions which are not conducive to creative activities.”
The rule of law, for example, needs to be bolstered by ensuring the independence of the judiciary, Li noted, adding that stock markets should be more closely regulated and rules enforced. “Too much attention is fixed on GDP,” he lamented. “The key issue is the fundamentals of growth. We are now running out of the dividends from institutional reforms pushed out by the previous government. To continue to grow, we need a new round of institutional reforms.” Reckoned Li: “The social conditions are ripe. Among the new leaders, there is religious belief in reform. Without reform, there is no way to achieve success in the future.”
TFEX's new SET50 Futures, SET50 Options, Sector Futures to debut on October 29
September 12, 2012-- Thailand Futures Exchange (TFEX), under The Stock
Exchange of Thailand group, is ready to launch the new versions of SET50 Index
Futures and SET50 Index Options, and to introduce Sector Index Futures on
October 29, 2012, in order to provide more investment choices for investors and
boost market liquidity.
"We believe the three new derivatives products will be beneficial to investors and will meet their demands. The new versions of SET50 Index Futures and SET50 Index Options will boost liquidity in the market, while Sector Index Futures will provide investment opportunities and benefit from the movement of stocks in five major sectors with more convenience, and cost-efficiency," said Kesara Manchusree, Managing Director of TFEX.
Tokyo Stock Exchange: Regarding News Reports-Reorganization Of Markets Rumour
September 12, 2012--Today, there were some reports in the media on market restructuring and other matters in connection with the business combination between Tokyo Stock Exchange Group, Inc.
and Osaka Securities Exchange Co., Ltd. However, there is no factual basis regarding such a decision at the present time.
Consensus Builds for Reform of China's Financial Sector
China could liberalize its capital account by as early as 2015
Shadow banking system is the financial sector’s biggest risk said BOC head.
September 12, 2012--China could liberalize its capital account by as early as 2015, said Dai Xianglong, Chairman, National Council for Social Security Fund, People's Republic of China, and ex-president of the People's Bank of China, although he cautioned that the international community influences the pace of reform.
“Financial reform should focus on internationalization of [China’s currency] the RMB and reform of the interest rate,” he added.
Participants agreed on the need for reform in the financial sector; and “the consensus is there” for the internationalization of the RMB, said Fang Xinghai, Director-General, Office for Financial Services, Shanghai Municipal Government, People's Republic of China, although structural problems have delayed the process. The eventual reform of the interest rate “will definitely have a big effect on the banking sector,” said Xiao Gang, Chairman of the Bank of China. Previously, “we provided lots of loans to big companies but, in the future, we’re more motivated to support development of SMEs” and to engage more in business overseas, he said.
China Will Meet 2012 Growth Targets, Says Premier Wen at Summer Davos Opening
September 11, 2012--Despite downward pressure on its economy, China will meet its 2012 growth target, Premier Wen says.
China will continue to aim to make its growth more stable and sustainable and to address income gaps.
The World Economic Forum’s sixth Annual Meeting of the New Champions opens.
For more information about the Annual Meeting of the New Champions 2012, please visit:
http://www.weforum.org/newchampions
Tianjin, People’s Republic of China, 11 September 2012 – While China’s economy faces significant stress, it will meet its official growth target of 7.5% GDP growth in 2012, Premier Wen Jiabao said in an address to 2,000 business, government and civil society leaders at the opening plenary session of the World Economic Forum’s sixth Annual Meeting of the New Champions. “It is true that the Chinese economy is under notable downward pressure, but with our efforts to shift our economic model, better allocate resources and implement more reform and opening up, we have the ability to keep the economy in good shape.”
China, Wen stressed, is aiming to improve the quality of its growth and ensure sustainable development by focusing on spurring consumer demand, promoting innovation, conserving resources and protecting the environment. “Although growth is slowing down, it is more stable. We will give greater priority to stabilizing growth and maintaining the continuity and stability of our policies.”
