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IMF Working paper-Chronicle of a Decline Foretold: Has China Reached the Lewis Turning Point?
January 31, 2013--Summary: China is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape. Within a few years the working age population will reach a historical peak, and then begin a precipitous decline. This fact, along with anecdotes of rapidly rising migrant wages and episodic labor shortages, has raised questions about whether China is poised to cross the Lewis Turning Point, a point at which it would move from a vast supply of low-cost workers to a labor shortage economy.
Crossing this threshold will have far-reaching implications for both China and the rest of the world. This paper empirically assesses when the transition to a labor shortage economy is likely to occur. Our central result is that on current trends, the Lewis Turning Point will emerge between 2020 and 2025. Alternative scenarios—with higher fertility, greater labor participation rates, financial reform or higher productivity—may peripherally delay or accelerate the onset of the turning point, but demographics will be the dominant force driving the depletion of surplus labor.
view the IMF Working paper-Chronicle of a Decline Foretold: Has China Reached the Lewis Turning Point?
Source: IMF
EU 'better than North America' for China firms: survey
January 31, 2013--Chinese firms consider the European Union as good or better an investment destination than North America, the EU chamber of commerce in China said Thursday, despite the eurozone's debt crisis and recessionary woes.
Even more preferred to put money into the European Union than nearby Southeast Asia, where some countries have significant Chinese minorities.
The European Union "is perceived as welcoming to foreign investment; with few market access barriers and little history of opposition to Chinese investment on national security grounds", the report said.
The survey of 74 Chinese companies that have already established themselves in the European Union found 33 percent considered it more favourable for investment than North America, with 45 percent saying it was the same and 21 percent less favourable.
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Source: EUbusiness
Calculation of TOPIX and Other Indices in Relation to Equity Market Consolidation
January 30, 2013--Tokyo Stock Exchange, Inc. (TSE) announced today how indexes currently calculated by the TSE and Osaka Securities Exchange Co., Ltd. (OSE)
will be calculated upon the merger of the TSE and OSE cash markets scheduled for July 2013.
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Source: Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE)
SSE Credit Bond 100 Index To Be Launched
January 30, 2013--Designed to serve as two new investable benchmarks for bond investors as well as to promote innovation of China bond market, CSI today announced the upcoming launch of SSE Credit Bond 100 Index on Feb. 26th 2013.
This index is composed of credit bonds trading in SSE whose credit rating are AA grade or above ，term to maturity above 1 year and outstanding above 0.8 billion. The base date is December 31st, 2007. The base index is 100.
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Source: Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE)
TSE has published the index value of TSE Home Price Index for November.
January 29, 2013--The index value of TSE Home Price Index (Used Condominium, Composite of Tokyo Metro Area) is 76.81 points.
The index value of TSE Home Price Index (Used Condominium, Tokyo) is 80.06 points. The index value of TSE Home Price Index (Used Condominium, Kanagawa) is 77.50 points. The index value of TSE Home Price Index (Used Condominium, Chiba) is 67.91. The index value of TSE Home Price Index (Used Condominium, Saitama) is 65.62 points.
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Source: Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE)
China stands on threshold of gold ETF introduction
Provisional rules for the introduction of gold ETFs have been announced in China. January 28, 2013--China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has published provisional rules for the operation of gold ETFs,, which pave the way for introduction of gold ETFs into China's financial markets.
China Daily quoted an official from the CSRC Saturday who said that there is no specific timetable for the listing of gold ETFs in China.
The move is part of the Chinese Central Government’s effort to promote the development of China’s gold and capital market. China is the world’s largest gold producer and consumer according to the China Gold Association.
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Source: MIneWeb
Japan forecasts 2.5% growth in 2013
January 28, 2013--Japan on Monday said the world's number three economy was on track to expand 2.5 percent in the fiscal year starting in April, thanks to fresh stimulus and a recovery in overseas markets.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's cabinet approved the forecast -- higher than an estimate of one-percent growth for the current year to March -- on Monday morning, government officials said.
The estimate is slightly higher than those from economists who have also upped their outlook on the back of a weaker yen and new stimulus measures, Dow Jones Newswires reported.
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Source: FIN24
DB-Synthetic Equity & Index Strategy-Asia-Pac Weekly ETF Market Review - ETP AUM lost $1.5bn amid mixed equity markets
January 28, 2013--Market Review
Last week, the Asia-Pacific region had mixed markets. Compared to the week before, from north to south:
Japan (Nikkei 225) +0.12%
Korea (KOSPI2) -2.16%
China (CSI 300) -0.92%
Hong Kong (HSI) -0.09%
Singapore (FSSTI) +1.81%
Australia (S&P/ASX 200) +1.34%
New Product Launch Review
Since the start of the year, three new products have been launched in the Asia-Pacific ETP market. China Asset Management listed one equity ETF on Shanghai Stock Exchange tracking CSI 300. In addition, Mirae Asset MAPS Global Investments and Samsung Asset Management listed one equity ETF each on Korea Stock Exchange tracking FnGuide Beta Plus Index and FSTE China A50 Index respectively. (See Figure 4 for further details)
Turnover Review
Asia-Pacific ETP turnover totaled $12.1bn last week, 1% up from the previous week’s total. South Korea reached on the top of the turnover ranking with $4bn turnover, followed by China ($3.2bn), Hong Kong ($2.8bn), Japan ($1.7bn), and Taiwan ($0.2bn). Among Equity ETFs, the Emerging Country, Leveraged Strategy, Asia-Pacific Developed Country, and Short Strategy ETFs had total turnovers of $6.7bn, $2.1bn, $2bn, and $0.9bn respectively. Among the Commodity asset class, turnover in Gold ETPs totaled $83mn.
Assets under Management Review
Last week, Asia-Pacific ETP AUM decreased by $1.5bn and ended at $139.3bn. On a year-to-date basis, Asia-Pacific ETP market is up by $2.5bn or 1.9% above last year’s closing.
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Source: Deutsche Bank -Synthetic Equity & Index Strategy-Asia
Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley to Trade China Stock Index Futures
January 27, 2013--Credit Suisse Group AG (CS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) are among five foreign investors approved to trade stock index futures on the China Financial Futures Exchange.
Credit Suisse is one of the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors, also known as QFIIs, that obtained permits to trade the instruments, Josephine Lee, a Hong Kong-based spokeswoman at the bank, said by phone today. Morgan Stanley was also selected, a person with direct knowledge of the matter said, asking not to be identified because the information isn’t public.
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Source: Bloomberg BusinessWeek
China to introduce gold exchange-traded funds
January 26, 2013--China's securities regulator has published provisional rules for the operation of gold exchange-traded funds (ETF), paving the way for introducing such business into the country's financial market.
There is no specific timetable yet for the listing of gold ETFs, or mutual funds traded on stock exchanges that track the price of gold and have most of their assets invested in gold, according to an official from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC).
Authorities need to thoroughly study how to regulate gold ETFs in order to protect investors' interests in such new products, Xinhua quoted the official as saying.
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Source: Zeebiz
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