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Fears Australian dollar facing 'benign collapse' to $US66¢
February 24, 2014--The Australian dollar could face a "benign collapse" to US66¢ by the end of next year amid falling commodity prices, declining mining investment and reduced government spending, Deutsche Bank says in one of the most bearish forecasts for the local currency.
The plunge in the Australian dollar to the mid-US60¢ would come about if the Reserve Bank keeps interest rates on hold until 2016, if the US lifts its rates by mid-2015 and if the United States' dollar continues to strengthen, Deutsche Bank's chief economist for Australia Adam Boyton said.
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Source: Sydney Morning Herald
China asset management industry AUM hits record high
February 24, 2014--Total assets under management (AUM) overseen by mainland China registered asset managers reached a fresh high of 4.27 trillion RMB (US$677.2 billion) as of the end of January, according to statistics from the Asset Management Association of China (AMAC).
These figures translate into growth of 1.07% year-on-year from accumulated AUM of 4.22 trillion RMB a year earlier. Meanwhile, the volume of fund units was up 4.35% to 3.25 trillion over the same period.
Up to the end of January, China had a total of 92 registered asset managers, which includes 48 joint ventures, 42 domestic entities, and two securities brokerages.
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Source: Asia Asset
CSRC embarks on restructure
February 24, 2014--The China Securities Regulatory Commission has merged eight departments and added four in response to the swift development of the country's capital markets and funds industry.
China's securities regulator announced a long-expected restructuring on Friday, which will entail the creation of four new departments and the merger of eight existing ones into four.
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Source: Asian Investor
CSRC Suspends IPOs Until "Two Sessions": Report
February 24, 2014--Data from the Commission showed that nearly 700 companies were awaiting a domestic listing ending February 20.
China's securities regulator has stopped receiving applications for initial public offerings, reported the 21st Century Business Herald, citing an investment banker.
The second-round of resumption of IPOs could be delayed until Chinese top policymakers end the national "Two Sessions" in March< the newspaper said.
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Source: Caijing.com.cn
Bank of Japan likely to expand asset buying by summer
February 21, 2014--The Bank of Japan is expected to ease policy further by this summer to help boost the economy and pull it out of a 15-year deflation, as the effects from Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's stimulus strategy loses momentum, a Reuters poll showed.
Economists in the survey also remain skeptical that the central bank will achieve its 2 percent inflation target in the year from April 2015.
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Source: Reuters
Tax setback over Korea October ETN launch
February 21, 2014--Regulator hopes to revive flagging derivatives market
Korea Exchange (KRX) is in talks with securities firms about launching exchange-traded notes (ETNs) as early as October this year but a tax issue is proving to be a sticking point in getting the products off the ground.
In November, Korea announced a national plan to strengthen the competitiveness of its financial industry with its '10-10 Value Up' plan which aims to generate 10% of gross domestic product from the financial industry over the next 10 years.
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Source: Risk.net
UPDATE 1-Chinese yuan fall deepens on offshore markets, down 1 percent to dollar since Monday
February 21, 2014--China's yuan currency weakened to its lowest level since early October in offshore trade on Friday,, extending a central bank-sponsored slide that has rattled foreign investors and left questions about Beijing's intentions.
One of the safest bets for global investors in recent years has been a steady gain for the yuan, or renminbi, long seen as artificially undervalued by state controls and traded by foreign investors in a complex system of offshore and forward rates.
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Source: Reuters
Taiwan says China to let QDIIs invest in Taiwan derivatives
February 21, 2014--February 21, 2014--China is revising rules to allow its qualified domestic institutional investor (QDII) funds to invest in derivatives traded on Taiwan's stock and futures exchanges, Taiwan's body in charge of relations with mainland China said on Friday.
The Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) said that the move comes after it met with its Chinese counterpart, the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits.
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Source: Reuters
IMF India: Selected Issues
February 20, 2014--Summary: The background papers for the 2014 Article IV explore key issues affecting the Indian economy,and implications for fiscal,monetary,structural,and financial sector policies. The first chapter uncovers the factors behind the unprecedented widening of India’s current account deficit in terms of the sectoral savings-investment balance. Persistently-high inflation is found to have depressed real returns,prompting a surge in gold imports and a marked deterioration in household financial savings.
The second chapter investigates inward and outward spillovers to and from India. The results show that output shocks emanating in globally-systemic countries have important global effects,but their impact on India is limited. Shocks originating in India have relatively small global implications,but are very important for several South Asian economies. The third chapter investigates the role of monetary policy in the context of high and persistent food and fuel inflation. As the second-round effects on core inflation are large,in order to durably reduce inflation,monetary policy will need to maintain a tight stance for a prolonged period of time. In addition,progress on structural reforms to raise potential growth is critical to reduce the burden on monetary policy. The fourth chapter explores progress in poverty reduction and inclusive growth. Robust economic growth has been a major driver of poverty reduction and inclusiveness. Social expenditures,spending on education,and educational attainment rates are important for fostering inclusive growth; while macro-financial stability,with particular attention to inflation risks,is critical for sustaining inclusive growth.
view the IMF India: Selected Issues paper
Source: IMF
IMF India: Staff Report for 2014 Article IV Consultation
February 20, 2014-- Summary: KEY ISSUES Context: The tightening of global liquidity has increased external pressures and heightened the focus on India's macroeconomic imbalances (high inflation, large current account and fiscal deficits) and structural weaknesses (particularly supply bottlenecks in infrastructure, power and mining).
Outlook and risks: Growth is expected to slow to 4.6 percent this fiscal year, the lowest level in a decade, reflecting global developments and domestic supply constraints.
Headline CPI inflation is expected to remain near double digits for the remainder of the fiscal year. The current account deficit is narrowing, driven by a significant improvement in exports, robust remittances flows, and a rapid diminution of gold imports. Nonetheless, India has very little room to adopt countercyclical policies, constrained by persistently-high inflation, and sizeable fiscal and external imbalances. Spillovers from renewed external pressures interacting with domestic vulnerabilities are the principal risks.
Key policy recommendations:
High and persistent inflation is a key macroeconomic challenge facing India. Further increases in the policy rate will be necessary to tackle high inflation and inflation expectations.
view the IMF India: Staff Report for 2014 Article IV Consultation
Source: IMF
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