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DB-Markets Research-Synthetic Equity & Index Strategy-Asia-Pac Monthly-ETF Insights
Global ETP Assets to Pass $3 trillion in December
Data in this report is as of 30th November 2015
December 14, 2015--Global ETP assets moving closer to $3 trillion mark
After recording continued notable inflows, global ETP assets reached to $2.96tn at the end of November, on track to reach $3tn. Global ETPs once again recorded healthy inflows of +$25.7bn in November (+$34bn in Oct'15) driven by US ETPs (+$26bn) and followed by Europe (+$3.4bn) with Asia experiencing redemptions (-$3.7bn).
Global YTD flows crossed $300bn mark reaching +$307.7bn. YTD flows for US ETPs totalled +$198.2bn while Europe (+$72.1bn) and Asia (+$37.4bn) are at all time high levels
. Global ETF investor positioning: Preference for DM/Europe continues, Inflows into Japan, outflows from China, India and Taiwan in November Based on YTD flows to ETFs listed globally with regional focus, we see clear trend that DM Europe has been most favoured followed by Broad (global) DM, while bearish on EM. Preference for Broad (global) DM spiked (+$5.2bn) in November and continued for DM Europe (+$1.1bn). This seems to indicate investors are confident of growth in Europe and believe DM/Europe to be less impacted by the upcoming rates hike in December. Broad (global) EM focused ETFs received healthy inflows during last two months recording +$2.9bn in October and +$0.4bn in November. DB EM economists confirm that this recent complacency in EM does not change our bearish medium to long term view.
Based on equity ETFs listed offshore with investment focus in Asia, outflows experienced across the board, except Japan, totalling -$1.6bn for November. China, India and Taiwan focused ETFs were most impacted and saw outflows of -$1.4bn, -$341mn and -$341mn respectively. Japan focused ETF was the only category receiving positive flows in November totalling +$649mn. China A-share ETFs saw redemptions from A-share ETFs in November after three month rally
As discussed in our previous reports, we have seen divergent flow trend for offshore ETFs focus on A-vs H-shares since the launch of Stock Connect in November last year: A-share ETFs have been hit by significant outflows and H-share ETFs have attracted significant inflow. This trend saw reversal with inflows into A-shares and outflows from H-shares during three months period from August to October, likely due to the stabilization and slight recovery of China's domestic market. However In November, A-share ETFs once again saw outflows with total redemptions worth of -$1.3bn taking YTD outflows total to -$11.5bn, reflecting the resurfaced concerns among foreign investors on China's economic slowdown. Impacted by A-shares and upcoming rates hike by the Fed in December, H-share ETFs continued to experience outflows in November as well but YTD inflows total is still robust at +$6.7bn.
Leveraged/Short, Currency hedged and RQFII ETFs are under spotlight
Leveraged/Short ETFs, Currency hedged ETFs and RQFII ETFs saw noteworthy rise in product offerings this year. These categories also saw major activity in terms of YTD flows.
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Source: Deutsche Bank Markets Research-Synthetic Equity & Index Strategy
The Great China Supply-Side Revolution? Communists Change Tack
November 13, 2015--Leaders explore industrial downsizing and freer labor market
Slowing economy is pressuring Xi's 2020 growth vision
When China's top Communist Party officials met in October at the heavily guarded Jingxi Hotel in Western Beijing to ink a new five-year economic plan, a significant policy shift was discussed.
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Source: Bloomberg
ETFs/ETPs listed in Japan have gathered a record 33.7 billion US dollars in net new assets this year as of the end of November 2015, according to ETFGI
December 11, 2015--ETFs/ETPs listed in Japan have gathered a record US$33.7 billion in net new assets year to date as of the end of November 2015 which is 210% above the record level of US$15.5 billion of net new assets gathered at this point in 2013.
The Japanese ETF/ETP industry had 169 ETFs/ETPs, with 224 listings, assets of US$132 Bn, from 21 providers on 2 exchanges at the end of November,, according to ETFGI's Global ETF and ETP insights report for November 2015.
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Source: ETFGI
China's yuan hits another 4-year low, faster offshore fall widens gap
December 10, 2015--CNY closes at 6.4378, weakest close in over 4 years
Offshore market has lost 1.6 pct in 5 trading days
Analysts see c.bank signaling comfort with depreciation
Wide spread between onshore and offshore markets has prompted intervention in past
China's yuan closed down against the dollar for the fifth session on Thursday while the offshore market accelerated away from the onshore rate, putting the Chinese central bank's ability to hold the exchange rate stable in question.
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Source: CNBC
Taiwan Stock Exchange and Korea Exchange Sign MoU to Deepen Index and ETF Cooperation
December 10, 2015--The Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) and the Korea Exchange (KRX) will sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on 11 December 2015. Under the terms of the MoU, both sides agree to work together to expand their ETF markets, jointly compile indices, conduct market promotion activities and engage in bilateral visits to share experiences.
The MoU will also help create closer ties and links between the Taiwanese and Korean capital markets.
Given the economic rise of Asia, regional cooperation between capital markets has been gaining more significance. The signing of this MoU will be a new milestone for cooperation between the Taiwanese and Korean capital markets.
view more> Womb-to-Tomb Policies Needed to Tackle Labor Force Decline and Higher Public Spending in Rapidly Aging East Asia view the Live Long and Prosper-Aging in East Asia and Pacific
India: Consumption At All-Time High and Projected to Rise view more
China's stock markets to introduce circuit breaker from January 1 to stem future routs view more
HKFE Announces Revised Margins for CSOP FTSE China A50 ETF Futures view more Shorting rules drag on Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect prospects view more
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Source: TWSE (Taiwan Stock Exchange)
December 9, 2015--East Asia is aging faster than any other region in history, and some middle-income and wealthier economies could lose as much as 15 percent of their working-age population by 2040, according to a new World Bank report.
The report, Live Long and Prosper: Aging in East Asia and Pacific, finds that 36 percent of the world's population ages 65 and over, or 211 million people, live in East Asia, the largest share among all regions. By 2040, the graying of the population could shrink the number of working-age adults by more than 15 percent in Korea and more than 10 percent in China, Thailand and Japan. In China alone, that would translate into a net loss of 90 million workers.
Source: World Bank
December 7, 2015--India consumption at all-time highs. The latest data from the World Bank1 has India's per capita household consumption expenditures reaching an all-time high of $730 USD (constant 2005 USD).
As seen in the chart, the ten year average growth rate also hit an all-time high, up 84% in 2014 over the past decade. Looking at contributing macro factors such as median population age, birth rates, and per capita gross domestic product (GDP), EGA Investment Strategy analysis suggests that by 2020 per capita household consumption expenditures could reach $1,025.
Source: Emerging Global Advisors
Analysts say a market mechanism is better than government intervention
December 4, 2015--Analysts said it was better to have a market-based mechanism rather than arbitrary government intervention,
although the move might affect market liquidity, together with a daily cap that allows only 10 per cent upward or downward movement for individual stocks, and a so-called T+1 rule that prevents investors from buying and selling shares on the same day.
Source: www.scmp.com
December 3, 2015--Hong Kong Futures Exchange Limited (HKFE), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEx), has announced that with effect from the commencement of trading on Monday, 7 December 2015, the minimum margins to be collected by an Exchange Participant from its
clients in respect of their dealings in the following futures contract will be as outlined...
Source: Hong Kong Futures Exchange Limited
December 3, 2015--Short sells on the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect have tallied a grand sum of zero since regulators opened the scheme for leveraged trading nine months ago.
That's an odd trait for a programme that has seen strong demand from global hedge funds that have just recently gained access to the mainland Chinese market.
Source: scmp.com
