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Goldman predicts $700bn capital outflow, weaker yuan for China in 2016
March 14, 2015--The world's second biggest economy will see $700 billion leave the country this year, says Goldman Sachs.
However, a currency crisis in China is unlikely to happen soon, according to the bank. view more
Source: rt.com
Japan's Biggest Gold Retailer Says Negative Rates Boost Demand
March 13, 2016--BOJ's move to stimulate bank lending burnishes gold's allure
New policy leads to misconceptions among bullion buyers
Japan's negative interest rates are boosting demand for gold, according to the nation's biggest bullion retailer.
International prices have rallied 18 percent this year as investors seek a haven from financial market turmoil. For individual investors, the Bank of Japan's surprise move in January is adding to gold's allure, according to Takahiro Ito, chief manager at Tanaka Kikinzoku Kogyo K.K.'s store in Tokyo's Ginza shopping district.
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Source: Bloomberg
Weekend Reads from China: What Investors Need to Know about the NPC Report
March 11, 2016--Amid rising doubts about China's economy and the government's ability to manage it, China's annual parliamentary session of the National People's Congress (NPC) kicked off last Saturday.
There, Prime Minister Li Keqiang presented the government's report on its economic targets for 2016.
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Source: blogs.cfainstitute.org
Animation: Japan's Aging Population
March 9, 2016--Japan's infamous "Lost Decade" was supposed to refer to the stagnant economic period from 1991 until 2000, after the collapse of the asset price bubble in Japanese housing and stocks.
However, it seems the phrase was coined a little early, as now it seems even more ominous. The "Lost Decade" has turned into the "Lost Two Decades", and many of the same economic problems continue to plague the nation today.
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Source: visualcapitalist.com
IMF-Dynamic Connectedness of Asian Equity Markets
March 9, 2016--Summary: Understanding how markets are connected and shocks are transmitted is an important issue for policymakers and market participants. In this paper, we examine the connectedness of Asian equity markets within the region and vis-à-vis other major global markets.
Using time-varying connectedness measures, we address the following questions:(1)How has connectedness in asset returns and volatilities changed over time? Do markets become more connected during crises periods? (2)Which markets are major sources and major recipients of shocks? Has there been a shift in terms of the net shock givers and shock receivers (directional connectedness over time)? Finally, we investigate the connectedness between China's equity markets and other countries' equity markets since August 2015 to highlight the growing importance of emerging market economies, particularly China, as sources of shocks
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Source: IMF
Budget 2016 milestone achievement for India, transforming policy by leaps and bounds
March 7, 2016--After a tumultuous Q1 for global stock markets, investors are increasingly seeking to take advantage of attractive valuations.
Bolstered by strong macro fundamentals, the SENSEX closed on Friday with its highest weekly gain in seven years, and the NIFTY just shy of 7,450.
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Source: The Economic Times
China Eases Fiscal Stance to Meet Slower 2016 Growth Target
March 5, 2016--Leaders vow to speed up disposal of unproductive state assets
Analyst: Problem is 'there's a lot of bad lending going on'.
China unveiled a record fiscal deficit and pledged to accelerate the restructuring of its bloated state-owned industries while still setting a weaker growth target for this year.
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Source: Bloomberg
Reforms to Build a Xiaokang Society in China
March 4, 2016--China aims to build a xiaokang (moderately prosperous) society in a comprehensive manner and eliminate extreme poverty by the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-20) period.
The reforms laid out in the Suggestions of the Fifth Plenum of the 18th Communist Party of China Central Committee and Decisions of the Third Plenum provide the solid basis for achieving these objectives. The 13th Five-Year Plan, to be discussed in the coming days, will include the concrete reforms that China decides to pursue in the years ahead.
Here are some reflections on how some of those reforms could help achieve China's objectives.
First is achieving moderately rapid growth during the 13th Five-Year Plan.
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Source: World Bank
IMF-India: Selected Issues
March 2, 2016--SUMMARY
The background papers for the 2016 Article IV explore key issues affecting the Indian economy, and implications for fiscal, monetary, financial sector and other structural policies.
The first chapter evaluates the build-up of corporate and banking sector vulnerabilities in India, linked to the past macroeconomic slowdown and supply-side bottlenecks, particularly
in the infrastructure sector. It finds that low profitability, coupled with high leverage, has put a strain on firms' debt repayment capacity. Stress tests of corporate balance sheets suggest that their exposure to potential shocks has continued to increase. Importantly, the weaker position of domestic corporates has also accounted for a substantial deterioration of banks' asset
quality. Stress test simulations suggest that potential capitalization needs should be manageable, but may require additional fiscal outlays.
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Source: IMF
China Adds Support for Slower Economy With Reserve Ratio Cut
February 29, 2016--China's central bank stepped up efforts to cushion its economic slowdown amid plunging stock prices and a weakening currency, cutting the amount of cash the nation's lenders must lock away.
The required reserve ratio will drop by 0.5 percentage points effective March 1, the People's Bank of China said on its website Monday. That will take the level to 17 percent for the biggest banks, still one of the highest such ratios in the world.
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Source: Washington Post
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