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BetaShares Market Insights: S&P/ASX 200 Market Outlook
December 16, 2015--The following note updates my previous technical and fundamental analysis of the S&P/ASX 200 market index both here and here.
My previous assessment that the "market seems likely to struggle for a while longer" has been borne out, and overall with regard to the index not much has changed since the previous update on September 30. Sadly, the outlook has not changed much as yet, with valuations still far from obviously cheap territory and corporate earnings still under downward pressure. This report also includes a more detailed sector breakdown of performance.
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Source: BetaShares Market Insights
IMF-People's Republic of China-Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2015 Article IV Mission
December 15, 2015--The economy is entering a potentially testing period ahead, but the risks are manageable with the strong buffers in place. A continuation of prudent fiscal management, robust regulatory oversight of the financial system, and the Linked Exchange Rate System (LERS) will help deal with near-term challenges while laying the foundations for steady growth and healthy job creation into the medium-term.
1. Context. Despite being repeatedly buffeted by powerful global cross-currents, Hong Kong SAR's economy has grown steadily in recent years. Real GDP is about 25 percent higher than the global financial crisis trough in 2009 Q1; employment has expanded close to 9 percent since then, with net job creation over 300,000; and the unemployment rate has declined to 3.3 percent.
2. Outlook. Growth is expected at around 2 ¼ percent this year.
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Source: IMF
Indonesia Economic Quarterly-December 2015
December 15, 2015--Indonesia's economy continues to face challenging external conditions. Global growth, trade and commodity prices remain weak, weighing on GDP growth and fiscal revenues.
The forest fires and haze this year have also constrained GDP growth, costing Indonesia an estimated IDR 221 trillion (1.9% of GDP)-more than twice the reconstruction cost after the 2004 Aceh tsunami. The impact of the forest fires is discussed in some depth in this issue of the IEQ.
The government is responding and demonstrating intent to implement reforms. For example, it increased capital spending by an estimated 49.8% year on year (yoy) in real terms in the third quarter.
view the Indonesia Economic Quarterly-December 2015
Source: World Bank
PBOC Makes China Junk Bonds More Resilient Than U.S. Peers
December 15, 2015--China's central bank has room for more easing: China Merchants
Average yields on onshore AA- notes have dropped to 6-year low
Chinese junk bonds are getting some help from the nation's central bank, making them more resilient if not immune to the global swoon in the riskiest debt ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
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Source: Bloomberg
ETFs/ETPs listed in Asia Pacific ex Japan suffered net outflows of 1.2 billion US dollars in November 2015, according to ETFGI
December 14, 2015-- ETFs/ETPs listed in Asia Pacific ex Japan suffered net outflows of US$1.2 billion in November 2015.
The Asia Pacific (ex-Japan) ETF/ETP industry had 772 ETFs/ETPs, with 916 listings, assets of US$116 Bn, from 115 providers on 17 exchanges in 13 countries at the end of November 2015, according to ETFGI's Global ETF and ETP insights report for November 2015 (click here to see ETFGI's chart for trends in assets invested in ETFs/ETPs listed in Asia Pacific ex Japan).
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Source: ETFGI
First-Ever U.S.-Focused ETFs Debut On Taiwan Stock Exchange-Three ETFs Provide Taiwan Investors With Diverse Ways To Access 500 Of The Largest Companies Listed On NYSE And NASDAQ
December 14, 2015--The first-ever ETFs tracking the Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500) debuted on the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) today, adding further diversity to Taiwan's fast-growing ETF market.
The three ETFs, issued by Yuanta Securities Investment Trust Co., Ltd., provide investors with a choice of ways to track the S&P 500, which is made up of 500 of the largest companies listed on NYSE and NASDAQ and captures approximately 80% the market capitalization of U.S. markets.
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Source: Mondovisione
DB-Markets Research-Synthetic Equity & Index Strategy-Asia-Pac Monthly-ETF Insights
Global ETP Assets to Pass $3 trillion in December
Data in this report is as of 30th November 2015
December 14, 2015--Global ETP assets moving closer to $3 trillion mark
After recording continued notable inflows, global ETP assets reached to $2.96tn at the end of November, on track to reach $3tn. Global ETPs once again recorded healthy inflows of +$25.7bn in November (+$34bn in Oct'15) driven by US ETPs (+$26bn) and followed by Europe (+$3.4bn) with Asia experiencing redemptions (-$3.7bn).
Global YTD flows crossed $300bn mark reaching +$307.7bn. YTD flows for US ETPs totalled +$198.2bn while Europe (+$72.1bn) and Asia (+$37.4bn) are at all time high levels
. Global ETF investor positioning: Preference for DM/Europe continues, Inflows into Japan, outflows from China, India and Taiwan in November Based on YTD flows to ETFs listed globally with regional focus, we see clear trend that DM Europe has been most favoured followed by Broad (global) DM, while bearish on EM. Preference for Broad (global) DM spiked (+$5.2bn) in November and continued for DM Europe (+$1.1bn). This seems to indicate investors are confident of growth in Europe and believe DM/Europe to be less impacted by the upcoming rates hike in December. Broad (global) EM focused ETFs received healthy inflows during last two months recording +$2.9bn in October and +$0.4bn in November. DB EM economists confirm that this recent complacency in EM does not change our bearish medium to long term view.
Based on equity ETFs listed offshore with investment focus in Asia, outflows experienced across the board, except Japan, totalling -$1.6bn for November. China, India and Taiwan focused ETFs were most impacted and saw outflows of -$1.4bn, -$341mn and -$341mn respectively. Japan focused ETF was the only category receiving positive flows in November totalling +$649mn. China A-share ETFs saw redemptions from A-share ETFs in November after three month rally
As discussed in our previous reports, we have seen divergent flow trend for offshore ETFs focus on A-vs H-shares since the launch of Stock Connect in November last year: A-share ETFs have been hit by significant outflows and H-share ETFs have attracted significant inflow. This trend saw reversal with inflows into A-shares and outflows from H-shares during three months period from August to October, likely due to the stabilization and slight recovery of China's domestic market. However In November, A-share ETFs once again saw outflows with total redemptions worth of -$1.3bn taking YTD outflows total to -$11.5bn, reflecting the resurfaced concerns among foreign investors on China's economic slowdown. Impacted by A-shares and upcoming rates hike by the Fed in December, H-share ETFs continued to experience outflows in November as well but YTD inflows total is still robust at +$6.7bn.
Leveraged/Short, Currency hedged and RQFII ETFs are under spotlight
Leveraged/Short ETFs, Currency hedged ETFs and RQFII ETFs saw noteworthy rise in product offerings this year. These categories also saw major activity in terms of YTD flows.
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Source: Deutsche Bank Markets Research-Synthetic Equity & Index Strategy
The Great China Supply-Side Revolution? Communists Change Tack
November 13, 2015--Leaders explore industrial downsizing and freer labor market
Slowing economy is pressuring Xi's 2020 growth vision
When China's top Communist Party officials met in October at the heavily guarded Jingxi Hotel in Western Beijing to ink a new five-year economic plan, a significant policy shift was discussed.
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Source: Bloomberg
ETFs/ETPs listed in Japan have gathered a record 33.7 billion US dollars in net new assets this year as of the end of November 2015, according to ETFGI
December 11, 2015--ETFs/ETPs listed in Japan have gathered a record US$33.7 billion in net new assets year to date as of the end of November 2015 which is 210% above the record level of US$15.5 billion of net new assets gathered at this point in 2013.
The Japanese ETF/ETP industry had 169 ETFs/ETPs, with 224 listings, assets of US$132 Bn, from 21 providers on 2 exchanges at the end of November,, according to ETFGI's Global ETF and ETP insights report for November 2015.
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Source: ETFGI
China's yuan hits another 4-year low, faster offshore fall widens gap
December 10, 2015--CNY closes at 6.4378, weakest close in over 4 years
Offshore market has lost 1.6 pct in 5 trading days
Analysts see c.bank signaling comfort with depreciation
Wide spread between onshore and offshore markets has prompted intervention in past
China's yuan closed down against the dollar for the fifth session on Thursday while the offshore market accelerated away from the onshore rate, putting the Chinese central bank's ability to hold the exchange rate stable in question.
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Source: CNBC