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IMF The People's Republic of China: Selected Issues
August 12, 2016--China is transitioning to a more consumer and service-based economy. This paper reviews progress along various dimensions of rebalancing and presents staff projections for the medium-term rebalancing path.
External rebalancing has advanced well, while progress on internal rebalancing has been mixed-substantial on the supply side, moderate on the demand side, and limited on credit dependence. Rebalancing on the environment and inclusiveness has lagged.
Going forward, the high national saving is expected to fall owing to demographic change and a stronger social safety net. The consumption ratio is expected to increase with rising labor income share and falling household savings. The investment ratio is forecast to fall in line with national saving, with external balance becoming more entrenched.
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Source: IMF
China stability falters as factory output, investment slow
August 12, 2016--China's recent economic stabilisation faltered in July as factory output, retail sales and investment all slowed.
Industrial production rose 6 per cent from a year earlier in July, the National Bureau of Statistics said Friday. Retail sales climbed 10.2 per cent last month, while fixed-asset investment increased 8.1 per cent in the first seven months of the year.
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Source: The Business Times
Proactive Reforms Critical to China's Medium-Term Growth Prospects
August 11, 2016--Growth at 6.6 percent in 2016; expected to decline further
Reforms in train, but credit growth unsustainable
A decision needed to stop financing to weak firms
China is still enjoying strong growth-6.6 percent in 2016-as it shifts from investment to consumption and industry to services, but the country needs faster progress on structural reforms to boost medium-term growth and reduce risks, the IMF said in its latest annual assessment of the economy
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Source: IMF
China has set up special group to launch Shenzhen-HK stock connect: Caixin
August 10, 2016--China's securities regulator recently set up a special work group tasked with launching the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme, Chinese magazine Caixin reported on its website.
The group, headed by Fang Xinghai, vice chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), is responsible for coordinating efforts among various departments within the CSRC, relevant government bodies, as well as between Chinese and Hong Kong regulators, according to Caixin.
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Source: Reuters
Hang Seng Indexes Licenses KB Asset Management to Use Hang Seng China Enterprises Index as Basis for ETF
August 10, 2016--Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited ("Hang Seng Indexes") has licensed the Hang Seng
China Enterprises Index ("HSCEI") to KB Asset Management Company Limited ("KB Asset Management") to serve as the underlying index for the creation of an exchange-traded fund ("ETF").
The ETF was listed on the Korea Exchange today.
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Source: Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited
DB-Markets Research-Synthetic Equity & Index Strategy-Asia-Pac Monthly-EM and Broad Asia Preferred while Japan and China Saw Outflows
August 10, 2016--Global ETP assets grow to $3.3 trillion amid rising markets and healthy inflows
Global ETP AUM was up by 5% ($157bn) last month and reached $3.3tn (11.3% increase YTD), supported by bullish markets and strong inflows.
Asia-Pac listed ETPs closed the month at record high assets of $306bn. ETPs listed globally (ex-RoW) received inflows of +$53.7bn over the last month with US ETPs bringing in largest inflows (+$45.7bn), followed by Europe (+$10.6bn) while Asia-Pac ETPs experienced outflows of -$2.6bn. Global ETP flows reached +$164.5bn in total YTD (5.7% of last year end AUM)
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Source: Source: Deutsche Bank Markets Research-Synthetic Equity & Index Strategy
BetaShares Weekly Newsletter-Another rate cut more likely than not
August 9, 2016--Although the Reserve Bank of Australia's August Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) did not contain an explicit easing bias, nor changes to the Bank's growth or inflation forecasts, it's nonetheless still consistent with a strong bias to cutting interest rates further-even after the RBA's decision to slash official rates to 1.5% a few days earlier.
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Source: BetaShares
IMF Working Paper-Spillovers from China's Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies
August 9, 2016--Summary: After many years of rapid expansion, China's growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on its trading partners in the near term.
This paper studies the potential spillovers to the ASEAN-5 economies through trade, commodity prices, and financial markets. It finds that countries with closer trade linkages with China (Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and net commodity exporters (Indonesia and Malaysia) would suffer the largest impact, with growth falling between 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points in response to a decline in China's growth by 1 percentage point depending on the model used and the nature of the shock. The impact could be larger if China's slowdown and rebalancing coincides with bouts of global financial volatility. There are also opportunities from China's rebalancing, both in merchandise and services trade, and there is preliminary evidence that some ASEAN-5 economies are already benefiting from these trends.
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Source: IMF
IMFWorking Paper-What is Responsible for India's Sharp Disinflation?
August 8, 2016--Summary: We analyze the dramatic decline in India's inflation over the last two years using an augmented Phillips Curve approach and quantify the role of different factors.
Our results suggest that, contrary to popular perception, the direct role of lower oil prices in India's disinflation was relatively modest given the limited pass-through into domestic prices. Instead, we find that inflation is a highly persistent process in India, reflecting very adaptive expectations and the backward looking nature of wage and support price-setting. As a consequence, we find that a moderation of expectations, both backward and forward, and a rationalization of Minimum Support Prices (MSPs), explain the bulk of the disinflation over the last two years.
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Source: IMF
India Consumer Confidence Loses Momentum in July
August 8, 2016--Consumers Less Upbeat About the Future
Indian consumer sentiment fell in July in a broad
based deterioration which saw lower optimism towards personal finances, the business environment, employment and the real estate market.
The MNI India Consumer Sentiment Indicator decreased 2.6% on the month to 111.6 in July,
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Source: MNI Indicators
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