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Bassanese Bites: Three downside risks facing the economy
March 7, 2017--An element of optimism appears to have crept back into the Australian economic outlook over the past month or so, culminating in the Reserve Bank's latest above-consensus forecast of above-trend economic growth in 2017.
But as this note points out, the economy still appears to face at least three critical downside risks in the coming year, suggesting the RBA may be overly optimistic.
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Source: BetaShares
World Gold Council-Market Update: Indian demand will recover from 2016's lows
March 7, 2017--A barrage of policy initiatives aimed at purging India of black money and instilling greater transparency rocked India's economy last year, including its gold market.
The most dramatic was the radical decision to demonetise over 15 trillion rupees, around US$220bn. Other policies-such as the re-introduction of excise duty- affected the gold market, too.
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Source: World Gold Council (WGC)
New FTSE ST indexes to track Singapore's consumer goods and services sector
March 6, 2017--Global index provider FTSE Russell launched two new indexes tracking SGX-listed firms in the consumer goods and services index and listed on Singapore Exchange (SGX).
The FTSE ST Consumer Goods and Services index comprises constituents in either the consumer good or the consumer services industries, while the FTSE Consumer Goods and Services Liquid 20 Index comprises the most liquid stocks in the sector.
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Source: straitstimes.com
Bassanese Bites: Fed rattles sabres
March 5, 2017--The Week in Review
Mixed news for markets last week, with US President Trump delivering a well-received speech to Congress which suggested he might finally be settling into a more measured "Presidential" style.
As a partial counter to this optimism, however, the speech made only a passing reference to fiscal stimulus, which in turn suggested pump-priming the US economy sometime soon does not appear high on his agenda-at least compared to repealing/reforming Obamacare.
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Source: betashares.com.au
UPDATE:China 2017 GDP Target 'Around 6.5%, Higher If Possible'
March 3, 2017--Adds, Clarifies Details Throughout
Budget Deficit Target Set At 3% or CNY 2.38 Trillion
CPI Target Unchanged At 'Around 3%'
The Chinese government has set a GDP growth target for 2017 of "around 6.5%, or higher if possible in practice," Chinese Premier Li Keqiang announced Sunday, a lower target than last year's range of 6.5% to 7%.
The wording of the target makes clear that 6.5% is the center of government expectations, with the phrasing of "around 6.5%" clearly allowing for the possibility of growth below that rate.
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Source: marketnews.com
Four China regulators acting as one shows shift in curbing risk
March 2, 2107--China's regulators are putting together a unified front seeking to beat back growing risks to the financial system from $8.7 trillion in asset management products, including investments in bonds and risky off-balance-sheet lending by banks.
They're working to draft sweeping new rules governing the surge in these products, Bloomberg News reported earlier this week and a regulator confirmed Wednesday.
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Source: Bloomberg
Bassanese Bites: Show me the money!
February 27, 2017--The Week in Review
As noted last week, only one of the three more obvious global macro "Trump trades" is working at present, as equities continue to grind higher while bond yields and the $US dollar mark time in an extended "pullback" period.
Indeed, US 10-year bond yields dropped to the lower edge of their 2.3-2.6% "consolidation" zone last week, despite hawkish Fed minutes suggesting a March rate hike was not out of the question.
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Source: betashares.com.au
China regulators set new rules for asset managers as debt fears grow
February 22, 2017--China's financial regulators have circulated a draft framework of new rules aimed at curbing risks in the country's booming asset management industry, according to several Chinese news outlets and details of the draft seen by Reuters.
The rules, formulated by the central bank in conjunction with China's securities, banking and insurance regulators, were the latest effort by the authorities to bolster their oversight of financial assets, including wealth management products (WMPs), amid concerns about growing debt in the economy.
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Source: World Bank
IMF-For India, Strong Growth Persists Despite New Challenges
February 22, 2017--India remains one of the fastest growing emerging market economies
Due to recent cash shortages, growth is projected to slow temporarily this fiscal year
Maintaining the reform momentum is key to stronger growth
India's overall outlook remains positive, although growth will slow temporarily as a result of disruptions to consumption and business activity from the recent withdrawal of high-denomination banknotes from circulation.
view the Infographic: 2017 India Article IV Report
Source: IMF
BetaShares-Could the S&P/ASX 200 reach and hold 6000 this year?
February 22, 2017--Since bottoming in February last year, and especially since the election of Donald Trump as US President, the Australian equity market has posted good gains, with the S&P/ASX 200 now within striking distance of the psychological 6000 level.
This post assesses both the technical and fundamental challenges facing the market. All up, the analysis suggests that it's quite possible for the market to reach and hold the 6000 level this year, but further gains beyond that might be constrained by the still-muted outlook for earnings growth in the non-mining sectors of the economy.
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Source: betashares.com.au
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