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China's $6.3 Trillion Stock Selloff Is Getting Uglier by the Day
January 19, 2024---Property sector's slump and geopolitical risks are negatives
China's valuation discount to India hit a record this week
Chinese stocks just capped another dismal week, with a gauge of mainland firms listed in Hong Kong languishing at the bottom of global equity index rankings for the year so far.
Grim milestones have kept piling up in recent days: Tokyo has overtaken
Shanghai as Asia's biggest equity market, while India's valuation premium over China has hit a record. Locally, a meltdown in Chinese shares is wreaking havoc on the nation's asset management industry, pushing mutual fund closures to a five-year high.
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Source: bloomberg.com
China's Economy Grew 5.2% in 2023, Chinese Premier Li Qiang Says
January 16, 2024--The National Statistics Bureau is due to publish 2023 growth figures on Wednesday
China's economy grew around 5.2% in 2023, Chinese Premier Li Qiang said Tuesday, a day before the country's statistics agency is due to release full-year growth figures.
"Last year in 2023, the Chinese economy rebounded and moved upward, with an estimated growth of around 5.2%, higher than the around 5% target set at the beginning of last year," Li said during an address at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
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Source: wsj.com
China's economy faces growing deflationary pressures as prices extend fall
January 12, 2024--Dec CPI fell year-on-year
CPI in 2023 was 0.2%, compared with around 3% government target
Dec PPI was down from a year earlier, steeper than expectation
China's consumer prices declined for a third month in December while factory-gate prices extended their prolonged slide, highlighting persistent deflationary pressures in an economy struggling to mount a solid recovery.
The consumer price index (CPI) shed 0.3% in December from a year earlier, and was up 0.1% month-on-month, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Friday. November's index dropped 0.5% in annual and monthly terms.
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Source: reuters.com
South Korea Watchdog Intensifies Crackdown on China-Linked Notes
January 7, 2024--Regulators to start an investigation into 12 banks and brokers
Authorities unsure if investors understood the product: FSS
South Korea's regulator is launching a wider probe into local banks and brokers which sold exotic notes linked to Chinese stocks amid concerns that the securities may saddle investors with heavy losses.
Authorities will start investigating 12 institutions on Monday to determine if there was any wrongdoing over the sale of equity-linked securities that are tied to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, according to a statement from the Financial Supervisory Service. The biggest sellers among the firms to be probed are KB Kookmin Bank and Korea Investment & Securities Co., it added.
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Source: bloomberg.com
IMF Staff Country Report-IMF Executive Board Concludes 2023 Article IV Consultation
with India
December 15, 2023--India's economy showed robust growth over the past year. Headline inflation has, on average,
moderated although it remains volatile. Employment has surpassed the pre pandemic level and, while the informal sector continues to dominate, formalization has progressed.
The financial sector has been resilient-strongest in several years-and largely unaffected by
global financial stress in early 2023.
The current account deficit in FY2022/23 widened as the post-pandemic recovery of domestic demand and transitory external shocks outweighed the impact of robust services exports and proactive diversification of critical oil imports. While the budget deficit has eased, public debt remains elevated and fiscal buffers need to be rebuilt. Globally, India's 2023 G20 presidency has demonstrated the country's important role in advancing multilateral policy priorities.
Growth is expected to remain strong, supported by macroeconomic and financial stability.
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Source: imf.org
Thai Economy to Recover in 2024 Driven by Tourism, Exports Recovery
December 14, 2023---Carbon pricing critical for achieving climate objectives
Thailand's economic growth is projected to pick up to 3.2% in 2024 from 2.5% this year, supported by a recovery in tourism and goods exports and sustained private consumption, the World Bank said in its semi-annual Thailand Economic Monitor, launched today.
Growth in 2023 was dampened by a contraction in goods exports as well as ongoing fiscal consolidation, according to the report. The economy is projected to expand at a more moderate 3.1% in 2025.
Headline inflation is projected to slow to 1.1% in 2024 due to low energy prices. However, food prices are expected to increase.
Thailand's planned digital wallet program, potentially amounting to 2.7 percent of GDP, could boost near-term growth further by 0.5 to 1 percentage point over the two-year period in 2024 and 2025 if implemented. As a result, the fiscal deficit may increase to 4% to 5% of GDP, while public debt may reach 65% to 66% of GDP.
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Source: worldbank.org
Indonesia's Economic Growth to Ease Slightly in 2024 as Commodity Prices Soften
December 13, 2023---Indonesia can tackle climate challenges while achieving strong long-term growth
Indonesia's economic growth remains resilient, with inflation on a declining trend, and a stable currency, the World Bank said in its semi-annual Indonesia Economic Prospects report. GDP growth is projected to ease slightly to an average of 4.9% over 2024-2026 from 5% this year as the commodity boom loses steam.
Private consumption is anticipated to be the primary driver of growth in 2024. Business investment and public spending are also expected to pick up as a result of reforms and new government projects.
Inflation is expected to ease to 3.2% in 2024 from an average of 3.7% this year, within the target band of Bank Indonesia.
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Source: worldbank.org
Despite Strong Growth, South Asia Remains Vulnerable to Shocks
April 2, 2024--Growth in South Asia is expected to be strong at 6.0% in 2024, driven mainly by robust growth in India and recoveries in Pakistan and Sri Lanka. But persistent structural challenges threaten to undermine sustained growth, hindering the region's ability to create jobs and respond to climate shocks, says the World Bank in its twice-a-year regional outlook.
According to Jobs for Resilience, the latest South Asia Development Update released today, South Asia is expected to remain the fastest-growing region in the world for the next two years, with growth projected to be 6.1% in 2025.
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Source: worldbank.org
IMF Departmental Paper-Asia's Perspectives on Climate Change: Policies, Perceptions, and Gaps
November 29, 2023--Summary:
Asia and the Pacific's green transition will have far-reaching implications for the global economy. Over the past decades, the region has become the engine of global economic growth. With relatively heavy reliance on coal and high energy intensity, the region has recently become the largest contributor to growth in global GHG emissions, accounting for nearly 40 percent of the total emissions in 2020.
Achieving net zero by 2050 requires an energy transition at an unprecedented scale and speed, even as the region must ensure energy security and affordability.
The region must also address its vulnerability to climate change as it comprises many countries highly exposed to climate hazards increasing in severity and frequency with global warming. If managed well, the green transformation in Asia and the Pacific will create opportunities for economies not only in the region, but also around the world for inclusive and sustainable growth. The global economy is still far from achieving net zero by 2050, and the Asia and the Pacific region must play its part to deliver on mitigation and adaptation goals. Understanding Asia's perspectives on the constraints and issues with climate ambitions, climate policy actions, and constraints is central for devising climate strategies to meet climate goals. To this end, this chapter draws on novel surveys of country authorities and public in the region to distill climate ambitions and challenges faced and identify sources of major gaps in achieving mitigation and adaptation goals. Measures to help close the gaps are drawn from policy discussions with country authorities in bilateral surveillance and related studies.
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Source: imf.org
IMF Asia's Perspectives on Climate Change: Policies, Perceptions, and Gaps
November 29, 2023--Summary:
Asia and the Pacific's green transition will have far-reaching implications for the global economy. Over the past decades, the region has become the engine of global economic growth. With relatively heavy reliance on coal and high energy intensity, the region has recently become the largest contributor to growth in global GHG emissions, accounting for nearly 40 percent of the total emissions in 2020.
Achieving net zero by 2050 requires an energy transition at an unprecedented scale and speed, even as the region must ensure energy security and affordability.
The region must also address its vulnerability to climate change as it comprises many countries highly exposed to climate hazards increasing in severity and frequency with global warming. If managed well, the green transformation in Asia and the Pacific will create opportunities for economies not only in the region, but also around the world for inclusive and sustainable growth. The global economy is still far from achieving net zero by 2050, and the Asia and the Pacific region must play its part to deliver on mitigation and adaptation goals.
Understanding Asia's perspectives on the constraints and issues with climate ambitions, climate policy actions, and constraints is central for devising climate strategies to meet climate goals. To this end, this chapter draws on novel surveys of country authorities and public in the region to distill climate ambitions and challenges faced and identify sources of major gaps in achieving mitigation and adaptation goals. Measures to help close the gaps are drawn from policy discussions with country authorities in bilateral surveillance and related studies.
view more
Source: imf.org
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