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CBO-Budgetary Costs of Higher Interest Rates and Inflation
August 3, 2022--This letter responds to the following three questions that Congressman Jason Smith asked about the budgetary costs of higher interest rates and inflation.
How have the Congressional Budget Office's projections of interest payments changed?
How does increased debt affect federal borrowing costs?
How would holding a greater portion of federal debt in short-term securities affect the budget?
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Source: CBO (Congressional Budget Office)
SEC Makes It Clear: Wall Street Must Avoid These Conflicts of Interest
August 3, 2022--The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is trying to make it very clear how brokers and advisors should put the best-interests of their customers first. Wednesday morning, SEC staff issued a bulletin filled with examples of conflicts that Wall Street should avoid.
Paying brokers to recommend retail investing products that earn the firm more profit? The firm had better beware.
Sales contests or quotas that reward sales of specific stocks by a deadline? Under no circumstances, said Wednesday's bulletin.
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Source: barrons.com
CME Clearing accepts short-term UST ETFs as collateral
August 2, 2022--CME Clearing has widened its collateral eligibility to accept short-term US treasury ETFs as initial margin.
By extending the range of collateral that it will receive as IM, the clearing house aims to extend the flexibility of funding solutions offered to market participants with IM requirements. CME Clearing claims that it accepts the widest range of collateral of any major clearing entity.
These short-term exchange-traded funds invest in US treasuries with less than 12 months to maturity. CME Clearing managing director and global head of clearing and post-trade services Suzanne Sprague indicates that the clearing house has worked closely with ETF sponsors to ensure that accepting short-term UST ETFs as collateral meets with its risk management standards, while offering a broader choice of collateral that users can post to the CCP.
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Source: securitiesfinancetimes.com
TD buying Cowen for US$1.3B in U.S. investment banking push
August 2, 2022--Toronto-Dominion Bank announced Tuesday morning that it has agreed to buy Cowen Inc. in its latest U.S. takeover- and some analysts warned TD could be hard pressed to hang on to Cowen's most valuable talent.
Under the terms of the deal, TD will pay US$1.3 billion, or US$39 per share, in cash to buy the New York-based investment bank. TD said it sold 28.4 million shares in The Charles Schwab Corp. to finance the transaction; as a result, TD said the deal will be neutral to its Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio.
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Source: bnnbloomberg.ca
Horizon Kinetics Launches Blockchain Development Exchange Traded Fund (BCDF)
August 2, 2022--Horizon Kinetics LLC announced the launch of its second exchange traded fund (ETF), the Blockchain Development ETF (BCDF), an actively managed fund, which began trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) today.
This active ETF will be managed using the same long-term, value-oriented, and proprietary research-driven philosophy that has guided the management of the Firm’s other products over the more than 20 years since Horizon Kinetics' inception. The ETF seeks to invest in the equity of companies that stand to benefit, either directly or indirectly, from the issuance, facilitation, custody, trading and administration of digital assets, including cryptocurrencies.
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Source: Horizon Kinetics LLC
The Lipstick Effect: Do Recessions Really Make Us Buy More Makeup?
July 29, 2022--Lipstick is a staple beauty product; whether you're 22 or 62, you likely own at least one. My mom typically wore red Rimmel lipstick every day when I was growing up. Like many kids, I would try on her lipsticks before I was able to buy my own. From her, I learned to find comfort in applying a classic matte red to my lips.
Sky-high inflation has recently led to significant increases in the cost of living in countries such as the United Kingdom and the United States, and experts have warned there could be a recession on the way. In such circumstances, you might assume there would be a decline in spending on lipstick.
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Source: byrdie.com
Federal Reserve Annual Report
July 29, 2022--This report covers the calendar-year operations and activities carried out by the Board in its five key functional areas: (1) monetary policy, (2) financial stability, (3) supervision and regulation, (4) payment system and Reserve Bank oversight, and (5) consumer and community affairs.
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Source: federalreserve.gov
US economy shrinks for a 2nd quarter, raising recession fear
July 28, 2022-- The U.S. economy shrank from April through June for a second straight quarter, contracting at a 0.9% annual pace and raising fears that the nation may be approaching a recession.
The decline that the Commerce Department reported Thursday in the gross domestic product- the broadest gauge of the economy- followed a 1.6% annual drop from January through March.
Consecutive quarters of falling GDP constitute one informal, though not definitive, indicator of a recession.
The GDP report for last quarter pointed to weakness across the economy. Consumer spending slowed as Americans bought fewer goods. Business investment fell. Inventories tumbled as businesses slowed their restocking of shelves, shaving 2 percentage points from GDP.
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Source: apnews.com
Fed jacks rates again, Powell vows no surrender in inflation battle
July 27, 2022--Fed raises policy rate to 2.25%-2.50% range
U.S. central bank flags weakening economic data
Fed's Powell says failure to tame inflation not an option
The Federal Reserve said on Wednesday it would not flinch in its battle against the most intense breakout of inflation in the United States since the 1980s even if that means a "sustained period" of economic weakness and a slowing jobs market.
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Source: reuters.com
CBO-The Demographic Outlook: 2022 to 2052
July 27, 2022--In CBO's projections, the size of the U.S. population increases from 335 million people in 2022 to 369 million people in 2052. Population growth is increasingly driven by net immigration, which accounts for all population growth in 2043 and beyond.
Summary:
The size of the U.S. population and its age and sex composition affect federal spending, revenues, deficits, debt, and the economy. In this report, the Congressional Budget Office describes its population projections that underlie the baseline budget projections and economic forecast that CBO published in May 2022 and the long-term budget projections that the agency published in July 2022.
Population
In CBO's projections, the population increases from 335 million people in 2022 to 369 million people in 2052, expanding by 0.3 percent per year, on average.
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Source: CBO (Congressional Budget Office)
