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Morgan Stanley-US ETF Weekly Update
October 7, 2014--US ETF Weekly Update
Weekly Flows: $3.4 Billion Net Outflows
First Net Outflows in Eight Weeks
New: High-conviction ETF Recommendations Slide
ETFs Have Generated Net Inflows 29 of 40 Weeks YTD
ETF Assets Stand at $1.8 Trillion, Up 9% YTD
Eight ETF Launches Last Week
US-Listed ETFs: Estimated Flows by Market Segment
ETFs posted net outflows of $3.4 bln last week, the first net outflows in eight weeks
Last week's net outflows were led by US Large-Cap ETFs at $4.8 bln; conversely, Fixed Income ETFs posted net inflows of $8.0 bln, the most of any category we measured
Within the US Large-Cap ETF category, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) accounted for $4.9 bln in net outflows
Eight of the 15 categories we measured posted net inflows last week; ETFs have generated net inflows 29 of the 40 weeks YTD
ETF assets stand at $1.8 tln, up 9% YTD
13-week flows remain positive among most asset classes; combined $47.1 bln in net inflows
US Large-Cap ETFs generated net inflows of $18.7 bln over the last 13 weeks, the most of any category; notably, over the past year, US Large- Cap ETF market share has climbed to 26% from 24% amid net inflows and rising markets
Fixed Income 13-week net inflows at $14.1 bln trailed only US Large-Cap ETFs-US Small- & Micro-Cap ETFs exhibited net outflows of $3.6 bln over the last 13 weeks as ETFs in this category have dramatically underperformed their larger counterparts from a performance standpoint
US-Listed ETFs: Estimated Largest Flows by Individual ETF
iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (SHY) posted net inflows of $1.7 bln last week, the most of any ETF
Eight of the 10 ETFs to exhibit the largest net inflows last week were Fixed Income
The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) and the SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) posted a combined $1.2 bln in net inflows last week; notably, our strategists have recently become more positive on high yield bonds
The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) exhibited net outflows of $1.5 bln last week; EEM has posted net outflows for four consecutive weeks totaling $3.4 bln
The PIMCO Total Return ETF (BOND) experienced $664 mln in net outflows last week, or 23% of its current market cap, as Bill Gross’ departure weighs on the fund’s assets
Over the last 13 weeks, the PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) has posted net outflows of $5.0 bln, the most of any ETF
US-Listed ETFs: ETF Dollar Volume
ETF monthly $ volume as a % of listed trading volume remained flat in September relative to August at 25%; over the last 5 years, ETF monthly $ volume as a % of listed trading volume averaged 28%
Over the last five years, ETF monthly $ volume as a % of listed trading volume peaked in August 2011 at 36%
ETF $ volume was $82 bln more last week compared to the prior week and is 45% above its 13-week average
Fixed Income ETFs accounted for 7% of ETF $ volume last week compared to their 13-week average of 6% and market capitalization share of 15%
US-Listed ETFs: Short Interest Data Unchanged: Based on data as of 9/15/14
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) had the largest increase in USD short interest at $528 mln
Despite EEM’s increase in short interest, the fund’s shares short remain 12% below their 52-week average
666 ETFs exhibited short interest increases while 660 experienced short interest declines over the last period
Aggregate ETF USD short interest increased by $362 mln over the period ended 9/15/14
The average shares short/shares outstanding for ETFs is currently 4.2%, flat from last period
The SPDR Retail ETF (XRT) regained the top spot as the most heavily shorted ETF as a % of shares outstanding at 381%
Seven of the 10 most heavily shorted ETFs as a % of shares outstanding are sector/industry based (XRT, XOP, SMH, IYR, XBI, DRV, EMEY)
Based on multiple borrowings and the ability to continuously create new shares, shares short as a % of shares outstanding can exceed 100% (only nine ETFs exhibited shares short as a % of shares outstanding greater than 100%)
US-Listed ETFs: Most Successful Recent Launches by Assets
$9.3 bln in total market cap of ETFs less than 1-year old
Active ETFs account for 25% of recently launched ETF market share, the most of any category
150 new ETF listings and 37 closures YTD (20 additional upcoming closures announced)
The top 10 most successful launches make up 38% of the market cap of ETFs launched over the past year
Nine ETF sponsors and two asset classes (equities and fixed income) were represented in top 10 most successful launches, one of the most diverse sponsor groups since we began publishing this slide
Despite not cracking the top 10 most successful launches over the past year, the Deep Value ETF (DVP) generated net inflows of $42 mln last week, the most of any recently launched ETF; DVP owns US large-cap companies that are deemed undervalued
Conversely, the Deutsche X-Tracker Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares Fund (ASHR) posted net outflows of $52 mln last week, the most of any recently launched ETF; over the last 13 weeks, ASHR has actually exhibited net inflows of $240 mln
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Source: Morgan Stanley
BlackRock Blog-Questioning Your Bonds? 3 Questions to Ask Your Advisor
October 3, 2014--Uncertainty is in the air, particularly if you’re a fixed income investor. As BlackRock's Chief Investment Strategist Russ Koesterich wrote earlier this week, bond investing is different today than it was in the past. And that may well mean that what you were doing in the past, doesn't work quite the same (or as well) as it used to.
This is precisely one of those times you should be talking with your financial advisor. What should you ask him/her? Three things (at least.)
1) Does a changing market mean it's time to change my fixed income portfolio? The answer might be yes. Your financial advisor can help you assess your current fixed income allocation to determine not only the types of bonds you hold, but the types of risk.
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Source: BlackRock
Infrastructure Capital Advisors Launches First Actively Managed MLP ETF (AMZA)
October 2, 2014-Infrastructure Capital Advisors, a New York City based investment advisor specializing in energy, MLPs, and other key infrastructure sectors, today launched the InfraCap MLP ETF (NYSE Arca: AMZA), the first actively-managed ETF offering pure MLP exposure.
AMZA consists of high-quality, midstream energy master limited partnerships (MLPs) and related general partners and expects to establish an initial annualized distribution yield of 8.0%. The Fund seeks to achieve capital appreciation, a high level of current income and steady growth in the income stream.*
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Source: Infrastructure Capital Advisors
How Bill Gross became too hot for Pimco to handle
September 27, 2014--Bill Gross' abrupt departure from Pimco, the giant bond firm that he co-founded more than four decades ago, was preceded by months of clashes between the star investor and the firm's executive committee that got progressively worse, according to sources familiar with the situation.
Tensions had been building within Pimco, the Newport Beach, California-based asset manager with about $2 trillion under management.
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Source: Reuters
Exchange Traded Concepts Delivers the Source EURO STOXX 50 ETF to Market
First U.S. fund to launch in the new Source ETF Trust, a dedicated Trust established and operated by Exchange Traded Concepts exclusively for Source
September 23, 2014--Exchange Traded Concepts, LLC ("ETC"), in conjunction with Source Exchange Traded Investments ("Source"), is pleased to announce the launch of the Source EURO STOXX 50 ETF (the "Fund"), which will begin trading today on the NYSE Arca under the ticker symbol, "ESTX."
The Fund offers highly liquid exposure to the index of choice for European equity markets, the EURO STOXX 50 Net Return Index, which is comprised of 50 of the largest companies domiciled in the Eurozone and the primary hedging tool used by global trading desks.
Source, a global investment firm and one of the fastest-growing Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) providers in Europe, joined forces with ETC for the creation and implementation of the Source ETF Trust (the "Trust"), a Delaware statutory trust, utilizing ETC's existing exemptive relief. The Source EURO STOXX 50 ETF is its premiere launch in the U.S., with subsequent funds anticipated in the coming months.
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Source: MarketWatch
Cambria files with the SEC
September 18, 2014--Cambria has filed a post-effective amendment, registration statement with the SEC.
view filing
Source: SEC.gov
The Guggenheim Shipping ETF Earns Average Rating from Analysts at Deutsche Bank(SEA)
September 16, 2014--Deutsche Bank assumed coverage on shares of The Guggenheim Shipping ETF (NYSE:SEA) in a research note issued to investors on Tuesday.
The firm issued an average rating on the stock.
Deutsche Bank has also taken action a number of other stocks recently. The firm initiated coverage on shares of DryShips Inc..
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Source: Mideast Times
IMF Working paper-News and Monetary Shocks at a High Frequency: A Simple Approach
September 12, 2014--Summary: We develop a simple approach to identify economic news and monetary shocks at a high frequency. The approach is used to examine financial market developments in the United States following the Federal Reserve's May 22, 2013 taper talk suggesting that it would begin winding down its quantitative easing program.
Our findings show that the sharp rise in 10-year Treasury bond yields immediately after the taper talk was largely due to monetary shock, with positive economic news becoming increasingly important in subsequent months.
view the IMF Working paper-News and Monetary Shocks at a High Frequency: A Simple Approach
Source: IMF
CBO-CB0-Monthly Budget Review for August 2014
September 8, 2014--The federal government ran a budget deficit of $589 billion for the first 11 months of fiscal year 2014, CBO estimates-$166 billion less than the shortfall recorded over the same period last year. Through the end of August, revenues were about 8 percent higher and outlays were about 1 percent higher than they were at the same point last year.
In CBO's most recent budget projections, the agency estimated that the deficit for fiscal year 2014 (which will end on September 30, 2014) will total $506 billion, about $170 billion less than last year's deficit.
Total Receipts: Up by 8 Percent in the First 11 Months of Fiscal Year 2014
Receipts through August of this fiscal year totaled $2,663 billion, CBO estimates-$190 billion more than the amount for the same period last year.
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Source: Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
CBO Expects Economic Growth to Pick Up in the Next Few Years
August 28, 2014--Yesterday CBO released its updated budget and economic outlook. To get a quick overview of our new economic forecast, view The Economic Outlook for 2014 to 2024 in 15 Slides.
As described in both the report and slides, CBO anticipates that, under the assumption that current laws governing federal taxes and spending generally remain in place, the economy will grow slowly this year, on balance, and then at a faster but still moderate pace over the next few years.
In the first half of this year, real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) rose at an average annual rate of just 0.9 percent; but CBO expects a stronger second half, so for the year as a whole, the agency projects the rate of growth to be 1.5 percent, as measured by the change from the fourth quarter of 2013.
view the CBO The Economic Outlook for 2014 to 2024 in 15 Slides view the CBO Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024
Source: Congressional Budget Office (CBO)