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CBO-Did Treasury Debt Markets Anticipate the Persistent Decline in Long-Term Interest Rates? Working Paper 2017-07
September 27, 2017--Private-sector forecasters consistently missed the decline in long-term nominal interest rates over the past three decades, estimating rates that were higher (and, in some cases, much higher) than what actually occurred. This analysis examines whether bond-market participants anticipated with greater accuracy the decline in long-term rates.
To explore that issue, CBO compared the accuracy and bias in forecasts of long-term interest rates from the Blue Chip consensus with forecasts based on information derived from the Treasury yield curve as well as several benchmark forecasts and combinations of forecasts. The results indicate that Treasury debt markets did not do a better job than the Blue Chip consensus in forecasting the decline in long-term interest rates over the past three decades
view the Did Treasury Debt Markets Anticipate the Persistent Decline in Long-Term Interest Rates? working paper
Source: Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
New Invesco ETF Launches on NEO
September 27, 2017--Invesco Canada Ltd. ("Invesco"), including PowerShares Canada Vice President of Product and Business Development, Christopher Doll, joined Erik Sloane, Head of Business Development, Funds at NEO, Aequitas NEO Exchange Inc. ("NEO Exchange"), to open the market in celebration of the new PowerShares 1-10 Year Laddered Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index exchange-traded-fund (ETF), represented by the ticker PIB, launching on the NEO Exchange.
PowerShares ETFs seek to outperform traditional benchmark indexes while providing advisors and investors access to an innovative array of focused investment opportunities. The new PowerShares ETFs commenced trading on the NEO Exchange on September 12, 2017.
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Source: NEO Exchange
Dynamic Funds and BlackRock Canada's iShares Expand Their Active ETF Lineup
September 27, 2017--Dynamic Funds and BlackRock Asset Management Canada Limited ("BlackRock Canada") today announced the launch of three new actively managed exchange-traded funds (ETFs), representing tactical fixed income, U.S. mid-cap equity, and global financial services exposures.
Dynamic iShares Active ETFs combine Dynamic's style of active portfolio management with BlackRock's industry-leading ETF execution and operational expertise.
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Source: Dynamic Funds
Agencies propose simplifying regulatory capital rules
September 27, 2017--The federal banking agencies on Wednesday proposed a rule intended to reduce regulatory burden by simplifying several requirements in the agencies' regulatory capital rule.
Most aspects of the proposed rule would apply only to banking organizations that are not subject to the "advanced approaches" in the capital rule, which are generally firms with less than $250 billion in total consolidated assets and less than $10 billion in total foreign exposure.
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Source: federalreserve.gov
CFTC.gov Swaps Report Update
Eleven years on, we don't think another major financial crisis is likely over our cyclical horizon spanning the next six to 12 months. However, then as now, when the macroeconomic environment is as good as it gets and valuations are tight, it is time to emphasize caution, capital preservation and diversified sources of carry away from the crowded trades. view more
September 27, 2017--CFTC's Weekly Swaps Report has been updated, and is now available.
September 27, 2017--As Good as It Gets
We see three risks to the outlook for steady economic growth. Yet we also see opportunities for investors to target above-benchmark returns while emphasizing defense at a time of low volatility and full valuations.
It's easy to get lulled into complacency by synchronized global growth, easy financial conditions and super-low economic and financial market volatility. Yet, while the current macro environment and outlook appear better than many of the younger market participants can remember, the last time a similar combination prevailed was in 2006-and that didn't end well.
Source: Pimco
