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CAPE Fear: Why CAPE Naysayers Are Wrong
Beware the consequences of assuming that elevated CAPE ratios are here to stay, but if they are the "new normal," low future returns are likely to be the "new normal' as well.
Key Points
The CAPE (cyclically adjusted PE) ratio is not a useful timing signal for market turning points, but is a powerful predictor of long-term market returns.
Many arguments have been offered to justify elevated CAPE ratios. Most or all of the factors underlying these arguments are inherently temporary and subject to either near-term or eventual mean reversion. Beware the consequences of assuming that elevated CAPE ratios are here to stay, but if they are the "new normal," low future returns will be as well.
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Source: Research Affiliates
Emerging-Market Pioneer Mark Mobius to Retire
January 5, 2018--Emerging-markets guru and evangelist Mark Mobius, who has spent more than three decades with Franklin Templeton Investments, will retire from the global investment-management firm at the end of the month.
Mr. Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, joined the firm in 1987 to launch one of the first funds dedicated to emerging markets.
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Source: Wall Street Journal
ETFGI reports record-breaking 2017 for US-listed ETFs and ETPs with assets increasing 34.3% to reach a record US$3.42 trillion
January 5, 2018--ETFGI, a leading independent research and consultancy firm on trends in the global ETF/ETP ecosystem, reported today that assets invested in ETFs and ETPs listed in the United States increased by 34.3% during 2017 to reach a new high of US$3.42 Tn at the end of December.
According to ETFGI's December 2017 US ETF and ETP industry insights report, an annual paid-for research subscription service, assets invested in US-listed ETFs/ETPs grew by a record US$874 Bn during 2017, over double the previous record of US$419 Bn set in 2016. The increase of 34.3%, from US$2.55 Tn at the end of 2016, also represents the greatest growth in assets since 2009 when markets recovered following the 2008 financial crisis.
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Source: ETFGI
The Challenge for Vanguard's New CEO: Keep a Behemoth Growing
January 4, 2018--Mortimer J. 'Tim' Buckley must also contend with new challengers trying to undercut on price
Vanguard's new chief executive has a challenge his three predecessors didn’t: How to grow a firm that is already the world's second largest investment manager.
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Source: Wall Street Journal
REX Shares and Brian Kelly Announce Partnership to Develop Cryptocurrency ETFs
January 4, 2018--REX Shares, LLC (REX), a provider of alternatives strategy funds and ETFs, today announced a partnership with Brian Kelly, founder and CEO of BKCM (BKCM) and an investor in REX, to develop a line of ETFs and other funds designed to give investors exposure to the blockchain technology, cryptocurrency, and digital assets sectors.
Brian Kelly will serve as a portfolio manager for the suite of funds.
REX and BKCM see a large demand for regulated investment products that give exposure to the potential value creation taking place with the evolution of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology.
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Source: REX
Merrill Lynch to its Herd: No Bitcoin Trades
January 4, 2018--Should your clients be allowed to buy bitcoin? Increasingly, brokerage firms are taking that decision out of the hands of advisors and clients. In the latest development, Merrill Lynch has barred bitcoin-related trading in all accounts.
Bitcoin, of course, is the poster child for volatility and speculation. Having started last year below $1,000, it had five major selloffs en route to exceeding $19,000 by December. Bitcoin sits near $15,000 today
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Source: Barron's
DR Index Monthly Performance-December 2017
January 4, 2017--The BNY Mellon DR Index Monthly Performance for November 2017 report is now available.
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Source: BNY Mellon
Thomson Reuters-U.S. Weekly FundFlows Insight Report: Despite a Good Beginning to 2018, Fund Investors Are Net Redeemers for the Week
January 4, 2018--Despite a rather good start for equities in 2018, for the second week in three investors were net sellers of fund assets (including those of conventional funds and ETFs), withdrawing $12.3 billion.
Fund investors padded the coffers of taxable bond funds (+$3.3 billion) but were net redeemers of equity funds (-$8.4 billion), money market funds (-$7.1 billion), and municipal bond funds (-$48 million) for the week.
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Source: Thomson Reuters
Cboe Global Markets Reports Trading Volume for December and Full Year 2017
January 4, 2018--Options ADV up 11%, Futures ADV up 23%, Global FX ADNV up 10% over 2016
Total Index Options, SPX Options, VIX Options and VIX Futures Set Annual Volume Records
Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (Cboe: CBOE | Nasdaq: CBOE), one of the world's largest exchange
holding companies, today reported December and full-year 2017 trading statistics at www.cboe.com/monthlyvolrpc.
The data sheet "Cboe Global Markets Monthly Volume & RPC/Net Revenue Capture Report" contains an overview of certain December and full-year 2017 statistics. Data sheets are available on an as reported and combined basis for 2017 and 2016.
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Source: Cboe Global Markets
Vanguard retains title as world's fastest-growing asset manager
January 4, 2018--Fund house's assets pass $5tn milestone, closing gap on arch rival BlackRock.
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Source: FT.com
