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CBO-Monthly Budget Review for August 2019
September 9, 2019--The federal budget deficit was $1,067 billion for the first 11 months of fiscal year 2019, the Congressional Budget Office estimates-$168 billion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last year. Revenues were $102 billion higher and outlays were $271 billion higher than in the same period in fiscal year 2018.
Shifts in the timing of certain payments increased outlays in the first 11 months of this year by $52 billion; last year such shifts increased outlays by $28 billion. If not for those shifts, the increase in the deficit so far this year would have been $144 billion rather than $168 billion.
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Source: Congressional Budget Office
JP Morgan has created an index to track the effect of Trump's tweets on financial markets: 'Volfefe index'
September 8, 2019--Trump's market-moving tweets most often address trade and monetary policy, with keywords including "China," "billion' and "products."
J.P. Morgan's "Volfefe Index," named after Trump's infamous and still mysterious "covfefe" tweet, explains a measurable fraction of the moves in implied rate volatility for 2-year and 5-year Treasurys.
Out of about 4,000 non-retweets by Trump occurring during market hours from 2018 to the present, only 146 moved the market.
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Source: CNBC.com
Big US sustainable funds fail to support ESG shareholder proposals
September 7, 2019--2During the 2019 shareholder voting season, funds labelled by BlackRock, JPMorgan Asset Management and Vanguard as sustainable frequently sided with a company's management and against shareholder proposals on issues ranging from political spending to diversity disclosures, according to new reports filed with the US...
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Source: FT.com
Beige Book
September 4, 2019--Overall Economic Activity
On balance, reports from Federal Reserve Districts suggested that the economy expanded at a modest pace through the end of August. Although concerns regarding tariffs and trade policy uncertainty continued, the majority of businesses remained optimistic about the near-term outlook. Reports on consumer spending were mixed, although auto sales for most Districts grew at a modest pace.
Tourism activity since the previous report remained solid in most reporting Districts. On balance, transportation activity softened, which some reporting Districts attributed to slowing global demand and heightened trade tensions. Home sales remained constrained in the majority of Districts due primarily to low inventory levels, and new home construction activity remained flat. Commercial real estate construction and sales activity were steady, while the pace of leasing increased slightly over the prior period. Overall manufacturing activity was down slightly from the previous report. Among reporting Districts, agricultural conditions remained weak as a result of unfavorable weather conditions, low commodity prices, and trade-related uncertainties. Lending volumes grew modestly across several Districts. Reports on activity in the nonfinancial services sector were positive, with reporting Districts noting similar or improved activity from the last report.
VanEck, SolidX to Offer Bitcoin ETF-Like Product to Institutions
September 3, 2019--While the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has so far blocked a number of proposed bitcoin ETFs, two firms aim to launch a more limited option this week.
Announced Tuesday, VanEck Securities and SolidX Management-which have previously had a decision on their proposed bitcoin ETF postponed by the SEC-revealed they are taking an unusual route to bypass the regulatory hurdles.
The companies will use an SEC exemption that will allow shares in their VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust to be offered to institutions such as hedge funds and banks, but not to retail investors.
Though not in fact a true exchange-traded fund, the product is similar.
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Source: coindesk.com
CBO-Budgetary Outcomes Under Alternative Assumptions About Fiscal Policy
August 29, 2019--Summary
CBO regularly publishes baseline budget projections that show how federal spending, revenues, and deficits would look if current laws governing spending and taxes generally remained unchanged. Those projections are not intended to be a forecast of budgetary outcomes; rather, they are meant to provide a benchmark that policymakers can use to assess the potential effects of policy decisions.
To provide additional information about possible budgetary outcomes, CBO has estimated how its most recent budget projections would change under alternative assumptions about future fiscal policies, as follows:
Discretionary Spending. In CBO's baseline projections, discretionary outlays average 6.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) from 2019 through 2021, before falling to 5.6 percent of GDP by 2029, which would be the lowest percentage recorded since the inception of the modern Congressional budget process. As one alternative policy, CBO projected what discretionary spending would be if it remained at about 6.3 percent of GDP through 2029. As a second alternative path for discretionary spending, CBO also estimated the budgetary effects of freezing all discretionary appropriations at the 2019 amounts through 2029.
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Source: Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
CFTC.gov Swaps Report Update
August 28, 2019--CFTC's Weekly Swaps Report has been updated, and is now available.
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Source: CFTC.gov
Ordinary savers should be allowed to invest in private equity
August 27, 2019--SEC should ease restrictions and permit retail clients to use funds of funds.
Despite all the attention that is paid to the ups and downs of the big stock indices, private markets are where much of the action is.
Last year. companies in the US received twice as much investment-$2.9tn-from private sources than they raised in the public equity and debt markets,, and academic studies have found that the average private equity and venture capital fund has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 in recent decades
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Source: FT.com
Innovator Announces Upside Cap Ranges for September Series of S&P 500 Buffer ETFs(TM)
August 27, 2019--The only ETFs that provide S&P 500 exposure up to a cap, with downside buffer levels of 9%, 15%, or 30% over a one-year Outcome Period
Innovator's Defined Outcome ETFsTM are the subject of a patent application filed with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office.
Innovator Capital Management, LLC (Innovator) announced today the anticipated upside cap ranges and return profiles for the September Series of Innovator S&P 500 Buffer ETFsTM, scheduled for Cboe listing on September 3, 2019.
"We look forward to expanding the Innovator Defined Outcome ETFTM suite with a September series of S&P 500 Buffer ETFs," said Bruce Bond, CEO of Innovator ETFs. "We believe Defined Outcome ETFs solve a key challenge that millions of Americans face saving for retirement by providing the ability to stay invested in the market knowing they have both upside growth potential and built-in downside buffers against loss. With the September series, Innovator will soon have S&P 500 Buffer ETFs available beginning seven months of the year, as we build out the full suite, creating greater opportunity and flexibility for investors."
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Source: Innovator Defined Outcome ETFsTM
U.S. yield inversion deepens, stokes recession fears
August 27, 2019--The U.S. yield curve inversion deepened on Tuesday to levels not seen since 2007, rekindling fears of a looming recession that spurred a sell-off on Wall Street and stoked even more safe-haven demand for government bonds.
The intense interest in Treasuries supported demand for $40 billion worth of two-year government debt for sale, part of this week's $113 billion fixed-rate Treasury supply.
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Source: Reuters
