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CBO's Current Projections of Output, Employment, and Interest Rates and a Preliminary Look at Federal Deficits for 2020 and 2021
April 24, 2020--CBO has developed preliminary projections of key economic variables through the end of calendar year 2021, based on information about the economy that was available through yesterday and including the effects of an economic boost from legislation recently enacted in response to the pandemic.
In addition, CBO has developed a preliminary assessment of federal budget deficits and debt for fiscal years 2020 and 2021. CBO will provide a comprehensive analysis of that legislation and updated baseline budget projections later this year.
In the second quarter of 2020, the economy will experience a sharp contraction, and CBO's current economic projections include the following:
Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (real GDP) is expected to decline by about 12 percent during the second quarter, equivalent to a decline at an annual rate of 40 percent for that quarter.
The unemployment rate is expected to average close to 14 percent during the second quarter.
Interest rates on 3-month Treasury bills and 10-year Treasury notes are expected to average 0.1 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively, during that quarter.
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Source: Congressional Budget Office
Pandemic may boost state pension plan debt to $1.7 trillion
April 23, 2020--Recent market declines as a result of the coronavirus pandemic could cause state pension funds to suffer increased losses of $500 billion, which would bring the overall state pension debt to $1.7 trillion and the aggregate funding gap to an all-time high, analysis from Pew Charitable Trusts said.
Greg Mennis, director of Pew Charitable Trusts' public sector retirement systems project, noted in his analysis that most public plans are on track to face fiscal year losses for the first time since 2009 due to equity markets recent decline.
"In the aggregate, they are currently short of annual return targets by 10% to 15%," Mr. Mennis wrote.
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Source: pionline.com
Oil for Less Than Nothing? Here's How That Happened
April 20, 2020--April 20, 2020 will go down in oil-market history as the day when the U.S. benchmark price for crude dropped below zero for the first time--and then kept falling. In a massive and unprecedented swing, the future contracts for May delivery of West Texas Intermediate tumbled to minus $37.63 a barrel.
The jaw-dropping development was in no small measure down to an extreme glitch in the way oil futures operate. But it also revealed a fundamental truth about the oil market in the age of coronavirus and the aftermath of a price war: The world's most important commodity is quickly losing all value as chronic oversupply overwhelms the world’s crude tanks, pipelines and supertankers.
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Source: bloomberg.com
WisdomTree to Close and Liquidate 10 ETFs: Portfolio Products
April 20, 2020--WisdomTree is closing and liquidating 10 of its exchange-traded funds after a review of its fund family, the firm said.
Three ETFs trade on the Cboe: the WisdomTree Dynamic Long/Short U.S. Equity Fund (DYLs), Europe Multifactor Fund (EUMF) and Japan Multifactor Fund (JNMF).
Three trade on the NYSE Arca: Asia Pacific ex-Japan Fund (AXJL), ICBCCS S&P China 500 Fund (WCHN), and Yield Enhanced Global Aggregate Bond Fund (GLBY), and four trade on Nasdaq: Middle East Dividend Fund (GULF), Emerging Markets Consumer Growth Fund (EMCG), Negative Duration High Yield Bond Fund (HYND and Negative Duration U.S. Aggregate Bond Fund (AGND).
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Source: thinkadvisor.com
The Modern Federal Reserve
April 20, 2020--The Federal Reserve is expanding its toolkit to support monetary policy during the pandemic crisis. As the Federal Reserve moved to protect the economy from the damaging impact of the coronavirus, it slashed short term interest rates an additional 100 bps and unleashed an aggressive set of programs.
Stimulus programsincludedbuying $700 billion in U.S. Treasury and Mortgage Backed Securities, aimed at stabilizing the capital markets and helping to prop up the economy. These programs also include the ability to provide lending facilities to certain businesses, cities and states. In addition, the Fed encouraged banks to borrow at the discount window and also provided additional backstop programs for banks. At the time, Fed Chairman Powell indicated the Fed had more firepower and will use it to protect the U.S. economy. This proved to be a prescient statement.
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Source: winthropcm.com
ICE ETF Hub Growth Continues in First Quarter With March Notional Volumes Surging, New Functionality Going Live
April 20, 2020--Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE), a leading operator of global exchanges and clearing houses and provider of data and listings services, today announced that creation and redemption activity on ICE ETF Hub continued to increase throughout the first quarter of 2020, supported partly by new ETF Hub community members and functionality.
During the first quarter of 2020, over $136 billion in notional value was processed over ICE ETF Hub. In March alone, Authorized Participants (APs) processed a record $87 billion in notional value through the platform, compared to $27 billion in February, an increase of over 220%. A majority of the activity was in Fixed Income, where APs processed $63 billion in notional value, up 208% from February. For Equities, APs processed $24 billion in notional value in March, up 267% month over month.
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Source: Intercontinental Exchange
3 multifactor ETFs debut from iShares
April 17, 2020--iShares has brought to Cboe Global Markets three exchange-traded funds that screen large-cap, midcap and small-cap stocks for quality, momentum, size, value and low volatility.
The iShares Factors US Blend Style ETF, the iShares Factors US Mid Blend Style ETF and the iShares Factors US Small Blend Style ETF track factor-based subsets of Russell indexes.
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Source: smartbrief.com
ETFGI reports ETFs and ETPs listed globally gathered net inflows of 20.44 billion US dollars during March 2020
April 17, 2020--ETFGI, a leading independent research and consultancy firm covering trends in the global ETFs and ETPs ecosystem, reported today that ETFs and ETPs listed globally gathered net inflows of US$20.44 billion during March, bringing year-to-date net inflows to US$119.13 billion which is higher than the US$99.06 billion gathered at this point last year.
Assets invested in the global ETFs/ETPs industry have decreased by 11.1%, from US$6.04 trillion at the end of February 2020, to US$5.37 trillion at the end of March, according to ETFGI's March 2020 Global ETFs and ETPs industry landscape insights report, an annual paid-for research subscription service. (All dollar values in USD unless otherwise noted.)
Highlights
Happy 30th Anniversary to the ETF Industry
ETFs and ETPs listed globally gathered net inflows of US$20.44 billion during March.
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Source: ETFGI
U.S. Oil Fund to Move Giant WTI Position as Market Sours
April 17, 2020--Key ETF to roll some of its futures contracts to next month
Fund says it may not be able to meet its investment goal.
The $3.8 billion U.S. Oil Fund, which accounts for about 25% of all outstanding contracts in the most-traded West Texas Intermediate crude futures, said it will alter some of its position, citing market and regulatory conditions.
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Source: bloomberg.com
BNY Mellon Launches Comprehensive Technology Solution for ActiveShares ETFs
April 15, 2020--NY Mellon today announced the launch of an end-to-end technology solution to support ActiveSharesSM non-transparent actively managed exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This solution delivers a digital workflow from order placement through execution of underlying securities associated with creation and redemption activity.
Within BNY Mellon's digital platform, the new solution incorporates the Authorized Participant Representative (APR) and Verified Intraday Indicative Value Agent (VIIV Agent) in daily ETF workflows to enable efficient investor access without daily holding disclosure. The platform includes security restriction and approval processing features within the order ticket, eliminating the need for off-line phone and email communications. This results in a fully digital audit trail for all ETF orders and brings the APR role into deal handling.
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Source: bnymellon.com
