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IMF Staff Completes 2020 Article IV Mission to Nigeria
December 11, 2020-Real GDP is contracting, inflation is increasing, and external vulnerabilities remain large.
Major policy adjustments embracing broad market reforms are needed.
Exchange rate and monetary policy reforms, increased revenue mobilization and structural reforms will help to unlock Nigeria's growth potential.
An International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff team led by Jesmin Rahman conducted a virtual mission from October 30 to November 17, 2020 in the context of the 2020 Article IV Consultation with Nigeria.
At the conclusion of the mission, Ms. Rahman issued the following statement:
"The COVID-19 global pandemic is exacting a heavy toll on the Nigerian economy, which was already experiencing falling per capita income and double-digit inflation, with limited buffers and structural bottlenecks. Low oil prices and sharp capital outflows have significantly increased balance of payments (BOP) pressures and, together with the pandemic-related lockdown, have led to a large output contraction and increased unemployment. Supply shortages have pushed up headline inflation to a 30-month high."
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Source: IMF
Nigeria Development Update (NDU)-Rising to the Challenge: Nigeria's COVID Response
December 10, 2010--In 2020, Nigeria's economy is expected to experience its deepest recession since the 1980s due to the COVID-19-related disruptions, notably lower oil prices and remittances, enhanced risk aversion in global capital markets, and mobility restrictions.
In our baseline scenario-which assumes further macroeconomic reforms and a gradual recovery in oil prices-Nigeria's gross domestic product (GDP) is projected to contract by about 4 percent in 2020, growing modestly by 1.1 percent in 2021, and then recovering gradually towards the estimated population growth rate of 2.6 percent. With the rate of economic growth remaining below the population growth rate, per-capita incomes would continue declining and better full-time jobs will be much harder to find.
view the Nigeria Development Update (NDU)-Rising to the Challenge: Nigeria's COVID Response
Source: World Bank
South Africa: GDP Recovers to 66.1 Percent Growth
December 8, 2020--The South African economy began its journey to recovery during the third quarter of 2020- this after the national lockdown aimed at curbing the spread of COVID-19 had sent it into a tailspin.
During this period, the country's economy rose by an annualised rate of 66.1%, Statistics South Africa (StatsSA) revealed on Tuesday.
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Source: allafrica.com
Ethiopia: How Digital Ethiopia 2025 National Strategy Reinforces Economic Growth
December 1, 2020--Digital Ethiopia 2025 national strategy set to transform the country's national economy through four major pathway sectors including agriculture, manufacturing, IT-enabled services and the tourism.
The digitization of these sectors is expected to boost the economic transformation of the country in the coming five years to drive its status to the middle-income countries of the world.
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Source: allafrica.com
Economic outlook for the Central African Republic: Diversifying the economy to build resilience and foster growth
November 30, 2020-- According to the latest economic update for the Central African Republic (CAR), which was published today by the World Bank, the country's pace of economic growth for 2020 will have slumped to between 0 and -1.2% as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic following five years of robust growth (4.1%, on average).
In 2019, although the country's growth rate slipped to 3.1%, it was still higher than the rates recorded by neighboring countries that are facing a similar situation of fragility, conflict, and violence.
Entitled The Central African Republic in Times of COVID-19: Diversifying the economy to build resilience and foster growth, the update notes that the global slowdown has not spared CAR, where production of its main export products, such as coffee and cotton, has plummeted. The health crisis has weakened public finances and deepened the country's balance of payments deficit.
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Source: World Bank
Africa: Trump's Legacy in Africa and What to Expect From Biden
November 25, 2020--Donald Trump was propelled to the US presidency by promising to rewrite globalisation rules. This included restricting trade when it directly hurt the US, clamping down on immigration, and reducing commitments to the global order.
His administration's "America First" foreign policy also meant disengaging from its obligations to Africa, which he infamously referred to as "shit-hole countries".
Historically, the US foreign policy approach to Africa could be classified as benign neglect. This was characterised by a general lack of interest in the continent in the pre-World War II era. After World War II, US policy involved engaging or disengaging with individual countries, mostly defined in terms of counteracting the Soviet Union's attempt to gain influence in the region.
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Source: allafrica.com
Nigeria slips into recession blamed on COVID-19 and oil prices
November 21, 2020--The country's economy shrinks two quarters in a row amid contraction in its oil sector.
Nigeria has slipped into a recession after its gross domestic product contracted for the second consecutive quarter, according to official data released.
Africa's biggest economy is in recession for the first time since 2016. The recession four years ago was its first in a generation, and the country emerged from it the following year.
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Source: aljazeera.com
Moody's and Fitch both cut SA further into junk on Covid-19 economic shock, rising debt
November 20, 2020--Global rating agencies Fitch and Moody's both downgraded South Africa's sovereign credit rating further into junk on Friday evening, citing a combination of SA's weakening fiscal position, rising government debt and the economic shock triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic.
A majority of respondents to Bloomberg survey had expected both Fitch and Moody's to keep SA's credit ratings unchanged.
One slight piece of good news was that the third major global ratings agency, S&P, chose to keep SA's sovereign credit rating assessment unchanged.
All three agencies already assessed SA's debt at below investment grade ahead of the announcements on Friday evening. But the further downgrades mean that SA's borrowing costs may rise.
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Source: news24.com
South African stocks advance with boost from Naspers and miners
November 13, 2020--Emerging-market stocks and currencies were poised for a second week of gains amid optimism over a vaccine breakthrough and bets for more internationalist policies by the new US administration.
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Source: news24.com
Nigerian Stocks Surge Most Since 2015, Trigger Circuit Breaker
November 12, 2020--Nigerian stocks surged the most in more than five years on Thursday and triggered a market-wide circuit breaker for the first time as traders bought up shares in a hunt for assets with attractive yields.
The Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index jumped by 6.2%, its steepest increase since April 2015. As the gains in the benchmark index raced beyond 5%, an automatic 30-minute trading halt was activated for the first time since its introduction in 2016, the exchange said in a statement.
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Source: bloombergquint.com
