A Few White Papers
you are currently viewing::IMF Working Paper-Fear and Shortages: Identifying Geopolitical Risk and Supply Disruptions in Energy MarketsOctober 12, 2026-Summary Oil supply shocks significantly affect aggregate prices and unemployment, usual central banks' policy targets, whereas geopolitical supply risk shocks have only short-lived effects on prices and no effect on unemployment. All gas shocks generate persistent effects on the price level, but muted effects on unemployment. Historical price decompositions using the high-frequency model during the Russia-Ukraine war and the 2026 Middle East war show that energy prices rise due to geopolitical risk before supply disruptions materialize. Even after disruptions occur, fears of additional shortages continue to exert upward pressure on prices. These findings highlight the importance for policymakers to distinguish realized supply disruptions from geopolitical supply risk shocks. Source: sec.gov |
Gold in Central Bank Reserves: Strategic Considerations, Market Risks, and Practical Guidance
July 9, 2026-Gold has re-emerged as a prominent component of central bank reserves, largely reflecting valuation gains from higher gold prices rather than large-scale accumulation. This Note assesses gold's role from a reserve management perspective, emphasizing that while gold carries no credit risk and may support long-term balance-sheet resilience, it is highly volatile, offers only conditional hedging and diversification benefits, and is ill-suited to the liquidity tranche of reserves.
