A Few White Papers
you are currently viewing::Prospects Group Global Monthly-May 2026May 29, 2026--Overview
Inflationary pressures are becoming more evident, with input costs and output prices rising across advanced economies and EMDEs, driven by higher shipping, energy, and other commodity costs. Special Focus: The Effects of Geopolitical Oil Supply Shocks Over the past four decades, the volatility of oil prices during periods of rising geopolitical risk was nearly twice that during periods when perceptions of geopolitical risk were stable. Geopolitical oil supply shocks increase oil prices by about twice as much as estimates covering all types of oil supply shocks. Geopolitical oil shocks also exhibit strong spillovers to other commodity prices. Oil inventories, after an initial drop, typically surpass their pre-shock level in the medium-term after a geopolitical oil supply shock-a notable difference compared with other types of supply shocks. Source: worldbank.org |
Stack battles: the US-China artificial-intelligence rivalry is moving beyond chips alone
June 22, 2026--China is challenging US leadership in both AI hardware and software, with Europe unlikely to catch up
Despite Chinese progress, the United States remains for now ahead in the race for dominance over the so-called artificial intelligence hardware stack -the resources and equipment, especially semiconductors, needed to run AI models.
The Women's Health Innovation Radar: Revealing Gaps and Opportunities Across the Science-to-Patient Journey
May 18, 2026-Advancing women's health requires not only scientific progress but an innovation ecosystem capable of translating discovery into evidence, technologies and scalable solutions that improve outcomes for women globally. Yet, despite growing attention, the landscape remains fragmented, and many high-impact conditions continue to receive insufficient targeted innovation.
Paris Report 4: The New Global Imbalances
April 13, 2026--Global imbalances are back in focus. Central banks, international organizations, the G7 and the G20 are debating their causes and remedies. This Paris Report 4-a joint CEPR-Bruegel initiative-aims to provide independent analytical foundations for the debate, particularly for the French G7 presidency. It brings together 17 contributions on global imbalances over the past century, their current configuration among key players (the United States, Europe, and China), and perspectives from lower-income countries.
IMF Working Paper-Trade Policy Shocks and Corporate Valuations-Disentangling Trade and Uncertainty Channels
April 10, 2026-Summary
This paper investigates how the 2025 U.S. trade-policy shocks propagated to global equity valuations. Country-level studies have documented the aggregate costs of tariffs and uncertainty- but firm-level evidence on their joint role after the 2025 shocks remains limited. Filling this gap- we use a firm-level event-study design to disentangle a trade-exposure channel from a sensitivity-to-uncertainty channel.
IMF Working Paper-Making Stablecoins Stable
April 10, 2026-Summary
Payment stablecoins are privately issued digital money with the potential to enhance payment efficiency- foster innovation- and improve financial inclusion. At the same time- they are vulnerable to runs and associated welfare losses. One way to lower run risk is to require stablecoin issuers to hold safe assets. But doing so may lower issuers' profitability and thus their incentive to provide stablecoins- hampering payment innovation and product variety.
IMF-Understanding Global Imbalances
April 6, 2026-Summary
Against the backdrop of persistent and recently widening global imbalances, the paper presents a structured framework for understanding how domestic policies can influence current account positions by altering domestic saving and investment decisions. Staff analysis finds that traditional macroeconomic policies remain the dominant drivers of imbalances, but certain types of industrial policies could also play a role.
