A Few White Papers
you are currently viewing::Prospects Group Global Monthly-May 2026May 29, 2026--Overview
Inflationary pressures are becoming more evident, with input costs and output prices rising across advanced economies and EMDEs, driven by higher shipping, energy, and other commodity costs. Special Focus: The Effects of Geopolitical Oil Supply Shocks Over the past four decades, the volatility of oil prices during periods of rising geopolitical risk was nearly twice that during periods when perceptions of geopolitical risk were stable. Geopolitical oil supply shocks increase oil prices by about twice as much as estimates covering all types of oil supply shocks. Geopolitical oil shocks also exhibit strong spillovers to other commodity prices. Oil inventories, after an initial drop, typically surpass their pre-shock level in the medium-term after a geopolitical oil supply shock-a notable difference compared with other types of supply shocks. Source: worldbank.org |
