A Few White Papers
you are currently viewing::IMF Working Paper: Understanding China's 2024-25 Frontloading from the Lens of Product-Level Export BasketsJanuary 23, 2026-Summary Applying this to data from China's General Administration of Customs, we document the channels behind the 2024-25 episode and compare them with the 2018 US-China trade tensions. Our analysis points to broad-based adjustments across multiple dimensions in a manner not observed in 2018: (i) shipments to the US accelerated in the second half of 2024, possibly supported by the retention of intermediate inputs that facilitated a ramp-up in domestic production; (ii) from January 2025, domestic production slowed and shipments of intermediate inputs to Vietnam and other ASEAN economies accelerated, consistent with the relocation of export-oriented manufacturing following US tariffs; (iii) exporters prioritized shipments to the US through March 2025, reallocating flows away from third destinations with similar export profiles; and (iv) as shipments to the US fell sharply in April-May amid the escalation of reciprocal tariffs, the decline was offset by increased shipments to third destinations consistent with fulfilling previously deferred orders. Source: imf.org |
IMF Working Paper-Stablecoin Shocks
March 6, 2026-Summary
We develop novel measures of stablecoin shocks and use them to identify the causal effects of stablecoin adoption on U.S. financial markets. Combining a daily narrative dataset of stablecoin-specific news with changes in the combined market capitalization of USDC and USDT, we measure high-frequency movements in stablecoin market capitalization and implement heteroskedasticity-based identification within an event-study and SVAR-IV framework.
IMF Working Paper-Population Aging and Pension Reforms in China
February 20, 2026--China is experiencing rapid population aging and a declining workforce, posing significant economic and fiscal challenges, especially to the pension system. This paper examines the evolution of China's pension system, assesses its gaps relative to international peers, and evaluates the macro-fiscal implications of population aging and various pension reforms.
IMF Working Paper-Optimal Exchange Rate Policy with Oil Shocks
February 20, 2026--Summary We study optimal monetary and exchange rate policy in a small open economy facing oil price shocks. In a model with segmented financial markets that generate endogenous UIP deviations, the first-best allocation is achieved through a combination of interest rate policy and foreign exchange intervention (FXI). Monetary policy stabilizes domestic inflation and the output gap, while FXI targets the UIP wedge to offset financial frictions.
IMF Staff Country Report-Australia: Selected Issues
February 15, 2026--The re-elected government has laid out a bold reform agenda since taking office in May. Following a period of high inflation, the convergence of the economy toward balance is creating the opportunity to focus on ambitious structural reforms to address medium-term challenges.
From Ports to Prices: The Inflationary Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions
February 13, 2026--Summary
This paper examines the inflationary effects of shipping delays. We construct a novel measure of port-to-port shipping time using real-time AIS maritime data and link it with granular port-level trade and item-level price data. We document substantial heterogeneity in goods imports across ports and regions, variation in exposure to delays, and aggregate price responses to congestion shocks.
New SIX White Paper: Swiss Versus US Listings
February 4, 2026-Switzerland is uniquely positioned as a listing destination, yet tech companies sometimes gravitate in their listing considerations toward the US in pursuit of higher valuations and broader perceived advantages such as investor access, liquidity, and research coverage.
IMF Working Paper: Structural Reforms in Saudi Arabia Since 2016
January 23, 2026-Summary
Since 2016, Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 reforms have improved governance, business regulations, capital markets, the labor market, and the external sector, narrowing structural gaps with frontier economies and improving economic performance.
IMF Working Paper: Structural Reforms in Saudi Arabia Since 2016
January 23, 2026-Summary
Canada is adjusting to the largest shift in North American trade policy since
NAFTA. The economy has been more resilient than initially feared, supported by
USMCA exemptions, resilient consumption, and policy cushioning.
IMF Working Paper: From Par to Pressure: Liquidity, Redemptions, and Fire Sales with a Systemic Stablecoin
January 16, 2026-Summary
Fiat-backed stablecoins are expanding, and their issuers may attain systemic relevance as reserve portfolios grow and as they become increasingly intertwined with financial markets. This paper analyzes the resulting risks and the design choices that can mitigate them. A detailed financial-economics discussion forms the core of the paper.
IMF Working Paper: Market Access and High Spread Issuances
January 16, 2026-Summary
We investigate the factors determining emerging markets' likelihood to access international capital markets. First, we develop a simple model to outline the theoretical foundations of market access, highlighting the role of risk, spreads, net worth, and the cost of repaying debt. The model also shows a trade-off between risk insurance and moral hazard and underscores the relevance of unconventional instruments such as guarantees and macro-contingent debt.
