ESG and Of Interest News
How DeepSeek has changed artificial intelligence and what it means for Europe
March 20, 2025--By mid-2024, artificial intelligence large language models (LLMs) were running into diminishing returns to scale in training data and computational capacity. LLM training began to shift away from costly pre-training to cheaper fine-tuning and allowing LLMs to 'reason' for longer before replying to questions.
Fine-tuning uses chain-of-thought (CoT) training data that includes questions and the logical steps to reach correct answers. This increases the efficiency of learning for smaller AI models, such as DeepSeek. CoT data can be extracted from large 'teacher' LLMs to train small 'student, models.
These changes shift the cost structure of AI models from high pre-training costs to lower fine-tuning costs for model developers and more inference costs for users.
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Source: bruegel.org
IMF-Driving Change: Women-Led Economics
March 10, 2025-Summary
The developing world's vibrant research in the face of limited resources offers valuable global insights
For too long, Western institutions have shaped empirical research and policy recommendations. Authors based in developing economies have a far too small footprint in top economics journals.
They account for only 7 percent of articles in the top 10 journals of the profession, as Ernest Aigner, Jacob Greenspon, and I show in a forthcoming paper, even though their collective weight in the world economy exceeds 60 percent (measured by their global GDP share at purchasing power parity). The representation of women economists on all fronts is lower still.Even when research is published, getting it noticed is a major challenge. Promoting research within academic circles is one thing; bringing it to wider attention is quite another. Translating research findings into tangible policy requires sustained engagement with policymakers and the public-a demanding process that competes with researchers' limited time and resources. This creates a difficult balance: While researchers face pressure to produce new work, the crucial task of ensuring that existing research influences policy often remains underfunded and undervalued.
Global relevance
Empirical research produced in developing economies is not only locally relevant but also holds critical insights for global challenges. From climate adaptation to conflict resolution, pressing world issues first manifest intensely in developing regions.
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Source: imf.org
F&D: Reconnecting Morality with Political Economy
March 5, 2025-Putting moral insight back into economics enhances understanding of political outcomes
For much of the 20th century, the disciplines of moral psychology and economics were seen as distinct-each focused on separate concerns, with little cross-pollination. This wasn't always the case.
If we look back to philosophers such as Adam Smith and Karl Marx, discussions of political economy were deeply intertwined with questions of morality.
More recently, these fields have started to reconnect, recognizing that morality influences economic behavior, and vice versa, in profound ways.
It’s something I discussed in a recent review of the latest literature in this field (2024).
As an economist, I believe this growing intersection offers valuable lessons not only for academia but also for policymakers grappling with today's biggest challenges, such as greater inequality, political polarization, and diminishing trust in institutions.
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Source: imf.org
Half of world's CO2 emissions come from 36 fossil fuel firms, study shows
March 5, 2025-Researchers say data strengthens case for holding firms to account for their contribution to climate crisis
Half of the world's climate-heating carbon emissions come from the fossil fuels produced by just 36 companies, analysis has revealed.
The researchers said the 2023 data strengthened the case for holding fossil fuel companies to account for their contribution to global heating. Previous versions of the annual report have been used in legal cases against companies and investors.
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Source: theguardian.com
Carbon Majors: 2023 Data Update March 2025
March 5, 2025-Executive Summary
Carbon Majors traces 33.9 GtCO2e of emissions to the 169 active entities in the database in 2023, a 0.7% increase from 2022. The CO2 emissions in the database accounted for 78.4% of global fossil fuel and cement CO2 emissions in 2023, with just 36 companies linked to over half of these global emissions.
Carbon Majors is a database of historical production data from 180 of the world's largest oil, gas, coal, and cement producers representing 169 active and 11 inactive entities. This data is used to quantify the direct production-linked operational emissions and emissions from the combustion of marketed products that can be attributed to these entities.
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Source: carbonmajors.org
How Animal Spirits Affect the Economy
March 3, 2025—Viral narratives could be the missing link between emotions and economic fluctuations
Storytelling is central to how we interpret economic events. We recall economic history through haunting images of anxious crowds waiting to take money out of banks during the Great Depression or dejected office workers carrying cardboard boxes out of Lehman Brothers in 2008.
We gauge inflation by comparing shopping baskets with friends and family. We grapple with the consequences of artificial intelligence by channeling our hopes and fears into science fiction.
Storytelling is central to how we interpret economic events. We recall economic history through haunting images of anxious crowds waiting to take money out of banks during the Great Depression or dejected office workers carrying cardboard boxes out of Lehman Brothers in 2008. We gauge inflation by comparing shopping baskets with friends and family. We grapple with the consequences of artificial intelligence by channeling our hopes and fears into science fiction.
But do stories themselves influence the economy? This idea has a long precedent in economic thought. John Maynard Keynes wrote extensively about how "animal spirits"-nstincts and emotions that influence behavior-prompt people's economic actions, like spending or investing in businesses. He argued that these herd emotional urges lie at the heart of economic booms and busts.
Taking this idea one step further, Robert Shiller, an economist at Yale University, has pushed for a more detailed study of economic narratives-the contagious stories that shape how individuals view the economy and make decisions. Shiller hypothesizes that sufficiently popular narratives can go viral and have society-wide impact (Shiller 2020).
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Source: IMF.org
Trump's latest global tariffs, announced on a self-proclaimed 'Liberation Day', will likely cause sharp short-term trade declines-and a significant surge in inflation for the US
March 3, 2025—On 2 April 2025 - his self-proclaimed 'Liberation Day' - President Donald Trump once again announced new tariffs. This time, all US trade partners will face a minimum 'discounted reciprocal tariff' of 10%. For countries with trade surpluses deemed guilty of 'currency manipulation and trade barriers', tariffs could rise to nearly 50%. Southeast Asian export-driven economies will particularly be affected. Major trading partners-such as China (34%), the EU (20%) and Japan (24%)-will face intermediate rates, although they are extremely high by historical standards.
Regarding China, the official White House communication is unclear, but Trump's press secretary indicated that these new tariffs are in addition to previously imposed and announced measures. The UK and several other countries will be subject to the 'baseline' 10% tariff. For Canada and Mexico, the situation is more complex, as previous fentanyl- and migration-related tariffs will remain in effect. Additionally, tariffs on goods already targeted (e.g. steel, aluminium and cars) will stay in place. Exemptions include inter alia copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and lumber as well as energy imports and certain minerals that are not available in the US.
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Source: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies
WTO and OECD release expanded dataset on trade in services covering over 200 economiess
February 17, 2025-New data on bilateral trade in services covering over 200 economies from 2005 to 2023 was released by the WTO and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) on 17 February.
The Balanced Trade in Services (BaTIS) dataset, available on the WTO Global Services Trade Data Hub, provides insights into trade in 26 services sectors, covering digitally deliverable services , total commercial services and other breakdowns. Interactive data visualizations allow users to customize the information provided.
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Source: World Trade Organization (WTO)
OECD Services Trade Restrictiveness Index
Policy Trends up to 2025
February 12, 2025- Abstract
The OECD Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI) provides annually updated, comparable information on regulations affecting trade in services across 51 countries and 22 sectors from 2014 to 2024.
The OECD's quantification of services regimes across countries and over time seeks to inform the decisions of policy makers and regulators, to convey transparent and accessible information to exporters, and to provide a source of data for academic research on drivers and impediments to services trade.
This report highlights key policy developments up to 2025 and the latest trends affecting services trade. It also indicates best practices and the countries that lead in services reforms.
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Source: OECD
The Economic Costs of Temperature Uncertainty
January 24, 2025--Summary
Beyond its environmental damage, climate change is predicted to produce significant economic costs. Combining novel high-frequency geospatial temperature data from satellites with measures of economic activity for the universe of US listed firms, this article examines a potentially important channel through which global warming can lead to economic costs: temperature uncertainty.
The results show that temperature uncertainty-by increasing power outages, reducing labor productivity, and increasing the degree of exposure of firms to environmental and non-political risks, as well as economic uncertainty at the firm-level-persistently reduce firms' investment and sales. This effect varies across firms, with those characterized by tighter financial constraints being disproportionally more affected.
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Source: imf.org
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