Quarterly National Accounts - Contributions to GDP growth - Second Quarter 2010, OECD
October 6, 2010-Real GDP in the OECD area increased by 0.9% in the second quarter of 2010 from the previous quarter, a stronger pace than previously estimated (0.7%). Gross fixed investment was the main contributor to the GDP increase, adding 0.4 percentage point to overall growth. The rise in investment was the first since early 2008, and the pace was the fastest since the first quarter of 2000.
Private and government consumption contributed 0.3 and 0.1 percentage point to overall growth respectively. The rebuilding of inventories continued, but at a slower pace than in previous quarters. The increase in domestic demand was partially offset by negative contributions from net exports, which reduced overall GDP growth by 0.2 percentage point.
Among the seven major countries, the strong pace of GDP growth in Germany (to 2.2% in the second quarter) was driven by higher investment and net exports, which contributed 0.8 point each. In the United Kingdom, stronger GDP growth (up by 1.2%) reflected the positive contributions from private consumption and inventories. In Italy, foreign trade added 0.6 percentage point to overall GDP growth, more than offsetting lower domestic demand. In France, the increase in GDP growth from the previous quarter (to 0.7%) is entirely attributed to rebuilding inventories.
Source: OECD
The rise and rise of correlation
October 6, 2010--From New York to Hong Kong, investors, dealers, analysts and academics are puzzled. For months, they have been struggling to explain an investment phenomenon that has defined this year’s sharp swings in financial markets. Now they may have an answer.
Like fish swimming in shoals, shares in the world’s largest companies have see-sawn in lockstep as investors have bought heavily only to head for the exits later. This indiscriminate buying and selling, also called “risk-on, risk-off” trading, has characterised the sharp swings in equity markets during the summer sell-off and later rally that has this week sent Wall Street to near five-month highs.
Source: FT.com
IMF-World Economic Outlook—Recovery, Risk, and Rebalancing
October 6, 2010--Executive Summary
Thus far, economic recovery is proceeding broadly as
expected, but downside risks remain elevated. Most advanced economies and a few emerging economies still face large adjustments. Their recoveries are
proceeding at a sluggish pace, and high unemployment poses major social challenges. By contrast, many
emerging and developing economies are again seeing strong growth, because they did not experience major
financial excesses just prior to the Great Recession.
Sustained, healthy recovery rests on two rebalancing acts: internal rebalancing, with a strengthening of private demand in advanced economies, allowing for fiscal consolidation; and external rebalancing, with an increase in net exports in deficit countries, such as the United States, and a decrease in net exports in surplus countries, notably emerging Asia. The two interact in strong ways. Increased net exports in advanced economies imply higher demand and higher growth, allowing more room for fiscal consolidation. Strengthened domestic demand helps emerging market economies maintain growth in the face of lower exports. A number of policies are required to support these rebalancing acts. In advanced economies, the repair and reform of the financial sector need to accelerate to allow a resumption of healthy credit growth.
view the World Economic Outlook October 2010-Recovery, Risk, and Rebalancing
Source: IMF
MSCI Becomes Signatory to the United Nations Principles for Responsible Investment
October 6, 2010--MSCI Inc. (NYSE: MSCI), a leading provider of investment decision support tools worldwide, including indices, portfolio risk and performance analytics and corporate governance services, announced today that it has become a signatory to the UN Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI).
The UN PRI is a global initiative supporting the integration of environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors into institutional investing practices. There are currently over 800 UN PRI signatories from 45 countries, collectively representing more than USD 22 trillion in assets under management1. They include asset owners, investment managers, as well as service providers such as MSCI.
“Investing in companies who exhibit principles of strong corporate governance and who are committed to sustainable environmental and social practices is becoming increasingly important for our clients,” said Henry Fernandez, Chairman and CEO of MSCI Inc. “By becoming a UN PRI signatory, we are demonstrating our commitment to provide critical investment decision support tools to the growing number of investors throughout the world who are focusing on long-term sustainable investing.” . They include asset owners, investment managers, as well as service providers such as MSCI.
Source: MSCI
Financial Sector the "Achilles’ Heel" of Global Recovery
Financial system still vulnerable despite ongoing recovery
Funding risks for banks and governments a major concern
Financial reforms remain unfinished
October 5, 2010--Progress to restore global financial stability has suffered a setback in advanced economies, the International Monetary Fund said in its latest Global Financial Stability Report, with markets still sensitive to negative surprises.
While the outlook in the Global Financial Stability Report is for continued recovery and a gradual improvement in financial stability, considerable risks remain. Rising public debt burdens, funding challenges for banks, and increased uncertainty about the next phase of the recovery have prevented a return of confidence.
José Viñals, Financial Counselor and Director of the IMF’s Monetary and Capital Markets Department, said the financial system remains the “Achilles’ heel of the recovery” because of unfinished repairs to bank balance sheets and the need for further regulatory reforms.
“As a result, financial markets remain sensitive to negative surprises, and can quickly shift back to crisis mode,” said Viñals.
Sovereign risks and financial fragilities
Coordinated government support programs and the announcement of ambitious fiscal reforms have helped contain the market turmoil that broke out in April and May this year. However, fiscal risks remain elevated, particularly in advanced economies where public sector balance sheets have significant weaknesses.
Public debt is still high and rising in many advanced economies, and more needs to be done to ensure sustainability;
view the Global Financial Stability Report
Source: IMF
OECD annual inflation rate steady at 1.6% in August 2010
October 5, 2010--Consumer prices in the OECD area1 rose by 1.6% in the year to August 2010, the same inflation rate as in July. Growth in energy prices slowed down to 4.8% in August compared with 6.2% in July,
while consumer prices for food rose by 1.4% compared with 1.1% in July.
Excluding food and energy, the annual inflation rate held steady at 1.2 % in the year to August 2010.
Deflation continued in Japan for the nineteenth consecutive month with consumer prices falling by 0.9% in the year to August. Inflation decelerated slightly in all other G7 countries. Annual inflation was 1.7% in Canada (down from 1.8% in July), 1.6% in Italy (down from 1.7%), 1.4% in France (down from 1.7%), 1.1% in the United States (down from 1.2%) and 1.0% in Germany (down from 1.2%). Euro area annual inflation (HICP) was 1.6% in August, down from 1.7% in July.
Source: OECD
PE-Backed Buyout Deal Flow Increases for Third Quarter in Succession in Strongest Quarter since Financial Crisis
Private equity-backed deals announced in Q3 2010 have an aggregate value of $66.7bn, an
increase of nearly one-third on the previous quarter.
October 4, 2010--Preqin’s quarterly deal flow data shows a total of 515 private equity buyout deals announced in Q3 2010, with an aggregate value
of $66.7bn. This represents a 29% increase in the aggregate value from Q2 2010, when 498 deals were announced with an aggregate value of $51.9bn, and a notable 147% increase on the 396 deals valued at $27bn reported in Q1 2010. Deal flow in Q3 2010 represents the strongest quarter for buyout deals in the post-financial crisis landscape.
Other key findings include:
In Q3 2010, North American aggregate deal value increased 6.5% from the previous quarter, with 249 deals valued at $34.2 billion announced in Q3 2010, up from the 233 buyouts valued at $32bn in Q2 2010.
Furthermore, Q3 2010 deal flow in North America represents a significant 165% increase on the aggregate deal value seen in the region in Q1 2010, and remains notably higher than deal flow witnessed in the region during 2009.
European aggregate deal value increased significantly from the previous quarter, with 186 buyouts valued at $26.3bn announced during the quarter, a notable 120% increase from the $12bn in deal value witnessed during Q2 2010. Notable deals in the region include the take private of UK-based Tomkins plc by Onex Corporation and CPP Investment Board for $5bn, and the announced acquisition of Switzerland-based Sunrise Communications by CVC Capital Partners from PEbacked TDC A/S for CHF 3.3bn.
While deal flow in Asia and Rest of World has seen a slight decrease from the previous quarter, it has continued to remain above the levels seen in the previous year, with 80 deals valued at $6.2bn announced in the region, a 62% increase from the $3.8bn reported a year earlier in Q3 2009.
Source: Preqin
BATS Y-Exchange (BYX) Will Rebate Liquidity Removers, Launches October 15
Announces $0.0003 Rebate Per Share To Remove Liquidity, No Charge To Add Displayed Liquidity
October 4, 2010-- BATS Y-Exchange (BYX), which launches October 15th, will offer a rebate of $0.0003 per share to remove liquidity from the BYX book and no charge to add displayed liquidity.
Under traditional maker-taker pricing, the liquidity remover pays a fee to trade against orders on the exchange. Under the new BYX program, however, BATS will provide a rebate to these market participants, creating a very attractive price differentiation for the new exchange.
"We are pleased to launch BYX while offering members a new price point, including the highest liquidity removal rebate among exchanges for all securities, consistent with our philosophy of simple and aggressive pricing," said Chris Isaacson, chief operating officer of BATS Exchange. "BYX will also feature BATS' sophisticated smart order routing technology to help our members navigate market complexities in an efficient and cost-effective manner.
Source: BATS
Institutional Use Of Stock Trading Ideas Set New Records In 3Q10
October 4, 2010--Institutional use of stock trading ideas set new records in the third quarter ended September 30, 2010, according to the Trade Idea Monitor (TIM). This is as opposed to trading volumes, which generally declined.
Sell side firms sent a record 204,679 new and closed ideas to buy side clients in 3Q10, up 6% from the prior record set last quarter, and up 64% from the year ago third quarter. New ideas recommend when to open positions; closed ideas when to get out.
The TIM reported a record net 700 firms around the world with live trade idea programs as of September 30, 2010, up 8% from 2Q10 and up 28% from 3Q09. About 75% are brokers developing ideas and 25% are hedge and quant funds and traditional long-only investment managers buying ideas.
The TIM's database of closed ideas as of September 30, 2010 totaled a record 1,194,172, up 15% from June 30, 2010 and up 70% from a year ago. The "idea base" is used by money managers to assess the historical performance of brokers for fundamental trade idea investment programs, or to develop quantitative trade idea investing models.
Source: Mondovisione
Faltering risk appetite boosts Treasuries
October 4, 2010--Monday 21:30 BST. Risk appetite was in retreat as market gauges presented a confusion picture of for investors, and gloomy economic indicators dominated sentiment.
US and European equities are flat as traders struggle to justify pushing stocks further ahead following their recent good run and desks absorb some mixed US home sales and factory data.
Two-year Treasury yields have hit a record low, touching 0.40 per cent, as concerns about US growth leaves many investors convinced that the Federal Reserve will provide more monetary stimuli. Meanwhile the dollar, of late the market’s favourite inverse proxy for risk appetite, is bouncing firmly off recent 8-month lows.
Source: FT.com