Global ETF News Older than One Year
Composite Leading Indicators (CLI), OECD, February 2021
February 9, 2021--CLIs point to stable growth in most large OECD economies
The OECD Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, point to stable growth in most large OECD economies.
The CLIs continue to signal stable growth in the United States, Japan and the euro area as a whole, including Germany, France and Italy. In Canada, the CLI now points to stabilising growth. The CLI for the United Kingdom still signals a slowdown.
Among major emerging economies, the CLIs for the manufacturing sector of China and for India and Brazil all point to a steady increase in growth.In Russia, the CLI continues to signal stable growth.
The CLIs should continue to be interpreted with care as fluctuations in the underlying components are likely influenced by the changing measures to contain Covid-19 and the progress of vaccination campaigns.
Source: OECD
New Report: Transnational Repression Is a Growing Threat to Global Democracy
February 4, 2021--Dozens of governments around the world systemically employ violence against exiles and diasporas, reaching beyond national borders to silence dissent.
Human rights activists, dissidents, and their families face a worldwide pattern of violence and intimidation perpetrated by the authoritarian regimes they hoped to avoid by fleeing abroad, according to a new Freedom House report that details the immense scope of such "transnational repression."
The Saudi authorities' 2018 murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey is perhaps the most infamous recent case of transnational repression, but many other incidents have been reported, and still more have largely escaped media attention.
The key findings of the report, Out of Sight, Not Out of Reachinclude the following:
Source: freedomhouse.org
Growth and economic well-being: third quarter 2020, OECD
In most OECD countries, however, the rebound of real GDP per capita in the third quarter of 2020 helped lift household income.
Source: OECD
COVID's Long Shadow: Social Repercussions of Pandemics
Animosity and anger were soon directed at the unpopular King. The funeral of General Lamarque-pandemic victim and defender of popular causes-spurred large anti-government demonstration on the barricaded streets: scenes immortalized in Victor Hugo's novel Les Misérables. Historians have argued that the epidemic’s interaction with pre-existing tensions was a principal cause of what came to be known as the Paris Uprising of 1832, which may in turn explain subsequent government repression and public revolt in the French capital in the 19th century.
Source: IMF
IMF-Measuring the Informal Economy
Based on the proposed framework, the informal economy "comprises production of informal sector units, production of goods for own final use, production of domestic workers, and production generated by informal employment in formal enterprises." This proposed framework will facilitate preparation of estimates of the informal economy as a component of GDP.
Source: IMF
4 predictions for blockchain in 2021-from cryptocurrencies to art
This year has been off to a notable start for crypto and blockchain. On Jan. 7 the total cryptocurrency market hit an all-time high exceeding $1 trillion for the first time. Renewed interest in, and conversations around, blockchain technology and digital currencies from industry and government leaders have accompanied the rise.
At the same time, the challenges of 2020 continue, including the global pandemic. COVID-19 dominated the recent Davos agenda, with the need for digital solutions and real-time multi-party access to consistent information highlighted across multiple sectors.
Source: World Economic Forum
Bassanese Bites: The big squeeze
In terms of fundamentals, the global economy continues to recover despite COVID still raging in Europe and the United States. Indeed, the Q4 U.S. earnings reporting season is surprising to the upside and last week we learnt that the U.S. Markit service and manufacturing PMI indicators for January remained at levels indicating solid ongoing improvement. U.S. Q4 GDP rose by a solid 4% annualised, following a 33% post-lockdown surge in Q3. Inflation remains benign. The message from central banks is that policy will remain firmly accommodative.
Source: betashares.com.au
The Pre-Pandemic Debt Landscape-and Why It Matters
This substantial debt created challenges for countries that faced a debt surge in 2020, as economic activity collapsed and governments acted swiftly to provide support during the pandemic. As shown in our chart of the week, a dive into the numbers reveals that the 2019 global public debt surpassed its 2007 level by 23 percentage points of GDP
Source: IMF
New Nature Economy Report II: The Future of Nature and Business
As the world prepares to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic and resulting crisis, we are presented with an unprecedented clarion call, and opportunity, to change the way we eat, live, grow, build and power our lives to achieve a carbon-neutral, 'nature-positive' economy and halt biodiversity loss by 2030. Business as usual is no longer an option. The report highlights the need for a fundamental transformation across three socio-economic systems, which represent over a third of the global economy and provide up to two-thirds of all jobs. These systems are: food, land and ocean use; infrastructure and the built environment; and extractives and energy. Together they drive the threats which endanger almost 80% of the total threatened and near-threatened species. These systems, therefore, have a significant opportunity and responsibility to reverse nature loss. But they also have tremendous upside benefits to gain by embracing this transformation now.
Source: World Economic Forum
Financial Perils in Check for Now, Eyes Turn to Risk of Market Correction
Financial stability risks have been in check so far, but we cannot take this for granted.
Prices for stocks, corporate bonds, and other risk assets have risen higher on the news of vaccine rollouts. Financial markets have shrugged off rising COVID-19 cases, betting that continued policy support will offset any bad economic news in the short term and provide a bridge to the future. As the apparent disconnect between exuberant financial markets and the still-lagging economic recovery persists, it raises the specter of a possible market correction should investors reassess the economic outlook or the extent and duration of policy backstop.
Source: IMF
February 4, 2021--Real household income per capita, which provides a better picture of changes in people's economic well-being, rose by only 0.6% in the OECD area in the third quarter of 2020, despite a sharp 9.1% rise in real GDP per capita. Reduced growth in household income for the OECD area as a whole was largely due to marked decreases in income levels in the United States (-4.2%) and Canada (-3.6%).
February 3, 2021--In 1832, the great cholera pandemic hit Paris. In just a few months, the disease killed 20,000 of the city''s 650,000 population. Most fatalities occurred in the heart of the city, where many poor workers lived in squalid conditions, drawn to Paris by the Industrial Revolution. The spread of the disease heightened class tensions, as the rich blamed the poor for spreading the disease and the poor thought they were being poisoned.
February 2, 2021--Summary:
This paper proposes a framework for measuring the informal economy that is consistent with internationally agreed concepts and methodology for measuring GDP.
February 1, 2021--As the total cryptocurrency market hits an all-time high, there is renewed interest in blockchain from 'immunity passports' to high-value assets.
Expect to see more use of blockchain technology in supply chains and sustainable sourcing, particularly in the mining and metals sector.
Demand may rise for greater decentralized infrastructure provision, from finance to cloud storage.
February 1, 2021--Global markets
It's great to be back for another years of Bites! Since I last wrote on December 21, global equities have essentially moved sideways (consolidating after the big push higher in November), while bond yields have pushed modestly higher. The $US is trying to bottom out, while gold remains in retreat and oil prices are trying to push higher.
February 1, 2021--Many countries entered the pandemic with elevated debt levels. Our new update of the IMF's Global Debt Database shows that global debt-public plus private-reached $197 trillion in 2019, up by $9 trillion from the previous year.
January 27, 2021-The Future of Nature and Business, the second of three reports in the World Economic Forum's New Nature Economy series, provides the practical insights needed to take leadership in shifting towards a much needed nature-positive economy.
January 27, 2021--"The vaccines are here!"-the cry heard and welcomed the world over-has boosted hopes of a global economic recovery in 2021. Yet until vaccines are widely available, the market rally and the economic recovery rest on continued monetary and fiscal policy support.
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