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Oil prices hold on to multi-year highs
April 7, 2011--World oil prices Friday stayed above multi-year highs Friday, supported by the continued tensions in the Arab world and the postponement of elections in Nigeria, Africa's biggest crude producer.
New York's benchmark West Texas Intermediate light sweet crude for May delivery rose 55 cents to $110.85 per barrel after touching its highest level in two-and-a-half years in US trade Thursday.
Brent North Sea crude for May delivery gained 38 cents to $123.05.
Assessing Reserve Adequacy
April 7, 2011--Summary:
The dramatic increase in reserves holdings over the past decade has resumed since the global financial crisis, even at an accelerated pace. While the crisis has heightened perceptions of the importance of holding adequate reserves, there is little consensus on what constitutes an adequate level from a precautionary perspective: traditional metrics are narrowly-based and often provide conflicting signals;
; while newer approaches tend to be hostage to stylized modeling assumptions and calibrations. As a result, assessments tend to rely on comparisons with peers, probably amplifying the upward trend as perceived needs rise in line with actual holdings.
view the Assessing Reserve Adequacy paper
Strengthening the International Monetary System - Taking Stock and Looking Ahead
April 7, 2011--Summary:
The current IMS has survived for over forty years, underpinning strong growth in GDP and in the international exchange of goods and capital, one of its core objectives. As a result, interdependence among the world’s economies has grown dramatically, making the existence of a sound system ever more important.
At the same time, the system has exhibited many symptoms of instability—frequent crises, persistent current account imbalances and exchange rate misalignments, volatile capital flows and currencies, and unprecedentedly large reserve accumulation.
These symptoms have come to a head since the 2008 crisis and brought renewed international momentum to the idea of attempting to reform the IMS. Yet the debate so far suggests little consensus on the underlying problems, let alone on the solutions.
This paper identifies four root causes to these problems: inadequate global adjustment mechanisms to prevent inconsistent or imprudent policies among systemic countries; lack a comprehensive oversight framework for growing cross-border capital flows, covering both source and recipient countries; inadequate systemic liquidity provision mechanisms; and structural challenges in the supply of safe assets.
view the Strengthening the International Monetary System: Taking Stock and Looking Ahead ppaper
IMF Sees Oil Prices Staying High
Production constraints limiting increase in supply of oil
Growth in emerging markets, particularly China, boosting demand
Policies should aim at easing economies’ adjustment to increased oil scarcity
April 7, 2011--Oil prices are likely to remain high for the foreseeable future and IMF economists say that governments should be looking to back sustainable alternative sources of energy.
According to an analysis by the IMF, released as part of its World Economic Outlook (WEO), global oil markets are in a period of increased scarcity, as oil demand in emerging economies is rapidly catching up with demand in advanced economies and production constraints are beginning to bind in some major oil-exporting economies, where oil fields have reached maturity.
Improvements in oil supply have been slow, reflecting investment bottlenecks and other constraints, and the IMF expects net capacity will build only gradually.
The chapter on oil scarcity assesses the risk for the global economy in the medium term of the supply constraints. A persistent adverse oil supply shock would imply lower global output, higher revenues for oil exporters, a surge in global capital flows, and a widening of current account imbalances.
Ucits Fund Assets Tripled to $90.5 Billion in 2010, Survey Finds
April 7, 2011--Ucits funds tripled assets to $90.5 billion last year as managers attracted clients seeking to put money into the more regulated and easier-to-trade alternatives to hedge funds.
Firms started 129 funds last year that comply with the European directive known by the acronym for Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities, Hedge Fund Intelligence said in a statement today. The funds raised more than $9.5 billion, according to the London-based data provider. Ucits allow clients to withdraw money in as little as a day, place restrictions on leverage and offer investors transparency of holdings that is similar to that of mutual funds. John Paulson’s Paulson & Co., based in New York, and David Harding’s Winton Capital Management Ltd. in London are among hedge funds that started Ucits last year.
Contributions to GDP growth – Fourth quarter of 2010
Strong improvement in net exports sustains OECD GDP growth
in the fourth quarter of 2010
April 7, 2011--Real GDP in the OECD area grew by 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2010. Net exports and private consumption were the main contributors partly offset by an unwinding of inventories.
This reverses the pattern seen in earlier quarters where inventory-rebuilding had contributed positively to GDP growth and net exports had contributed negatively.
Over the whole of 2010, private consumption was the main driver of real GDP annual growth, contributing 1.2 percentage point to the overall 2.9% recorded growth.
NYSE Euronext Announces Trading Volumes For March 2011 And Other Metrics
NYSE Liffe U.S. Executes 480,000 Eurodollar and U.S. Treasury Futures Contracts Since March 21
Global Derivatives Averaged 9.2 Million Contracts per Day in March, Up 12% vs. Prior Year-U.S Equity Options Volumes Up 23%; European Derivatives Up 3%-European Cash Trading Volumes Up 44%, U.S. Cash Down 2%
April 6, 2011--NYSE Euronext (NYX) today announced trading volumes for its global derivatives and cash equities exchanges for March 2011[1]. Global derivatives average daily volume ("ADV") of 9.2 million contracts traded per day in March 2011 increased 11.9% versus the prior year.
The increase in global derivatives ADV versus prior year levels was driven by a 22.8% increase in U.S. equity options ADV and a 3.2% increase in European Derivatives ADV. Cash equities ADV in March 2011 was mixed, with European cash ADV increasing 44.0% and U.S. cash trading volumes decreasing 2.1% from March 2010 levels.
Highlights
NYSE Euronext global derivatives ADV in March 2011 of 9.2 million contracts increased 11.9% compared to March 2010 and increased 2.5% from February 2011 levels.
NYSE Euronext European derivatives products ADV in March 2011 of 4.8 million contracts increased 3.2% compared to March 2010 and increased 8.0% from February 2011 levels. Excluding Bclear, NYSE Liffe's trade administration and clearing service for OTC products, European derivatives products ADV increased 3.9% compared to March 2010, but decreased 0.9% from February 2011. Total European fixed income products ADV in March 2011 of 2.7 million contracts increased 1.6% compared to March 2010, but decreased 5.0% from February 2011. Total equity products ADV of 2.0 million contracts in March 2011 increased 2.9% compared to March 2010 and increased 31.6% from February 2011. Total commodities products ADV of 101,000 contracts in March 2011 increased 95.5% compared to March 2010 and increased 16.6% from February 2011.
RI’s regular round-up of responsible investing news; FTSE launches ESG ratings service
April 6, 2011-Index firm FTSE has launched an ESG ratings service that builds on the FTSE4Good index series, according to a report in the Financial Times. The FT said the service would give more detailed analysis of how global companies compare on governance and social and environmental practices. Company ratings are re-assessed twice a year by research firm EIRIS.
Société Générale’s corporate and investment banking arm has launched the group’s first Socially Responsible Investment Exchange Traded Note (SRI ETN) on the London Stock Exchange and is donating the management fees to charity. The bank said the launch followed a report published by its broker research team on the growing importance of integrating Environmental, Social & Governance (ESG) metrics into investment research to gauge a company’s management quality and risk governance.
Financial Cycles: What? How? When?-IMF Working Paper
April 5, 2011--Summary: This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of financial cycles using a large database covering 21 advanced countries over the period 1960:1-2007:4. Specifically, we analyze cycles in credit, house prices, and equity prices. We report three main results
First, financial cycles tend to be long and severe, especially those in housing and equity markets. Second, they are highly synchronized within countries, particularly credit and house price cycles. The extent of synchronization of financial cycles across countries is high as well, mainly for credit and equity cycles, and has been increasing over time. Third financial cycles accentuate each other and become magnified, especially during coincident downturns in credit and housing markets. Moreover, globally synchronized downturns tend to be associated with more prolonged and costly episodes, especially for credit and equity cycles. We discuss how these findings can guide future research on various aspects of financial market developments.
view Financial Cycles: What? How? When?-Paper
What is the economic outlook for OECD countries
An interim assessment
April 4, 2011--The news has of course been dominated by the disaster in Japan following the Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami. We express our deep sorrow at the enormous loss of life and offer our condolences to those affected by this tragedy. The full cost of the disaster is not yet known, but the authorities’ preliminary estimate is that the loss of physical capital amounted to 3.3 to 5.2% of annual GDP.
It is impossible at this point to assess the effect on economic growth, and therefore this interim outlook contains no projections for Japan. As a first estimate, growth in Japan might be reduced between 0.2 and 0.6 percentage points (non-annualised rates) in the first quarter and by somewhere between 0.5 and 1.4 percentage points in the second quarter. This includes the impact of the disaster on production in the areas hit directly, the rationing of power, the hit to confidence and supply chain disruptions. Reconstruction efforts are likely to begin relatively quickly, and these could begin to outweigh the negative effects on GDP by as early as the third quarter.