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Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence
July 6, 2011--Summary: This paper investigates the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in OECD economies. We examine the historical record, including Budget Speeches and IMFdocuments, to identify changes in fiscal policy motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by responding to prospective economic conditions.
Using this new dataset, our estimates suggest fiscal consolidation has contractionary effects on private domestic demand and GDP. By contrast, estimates based on conventional measures of the fiscal policy stance used in the literature support the expansionary fiscal contractions hypothesis but appear to be biased toward overstating expansionary effects.
view the IMF Working paper-Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence
The Behavior of Conventional and Islamic Bank Deposit Returns in Malaysia and Turkey
July 6, 2011--Summary: This paper examines the empirical behavior of conventional bank deposit rates and the rate of return on retail Islamic profit-and-loss sharing (PLS) investment accounts in Malaysia and Turkey, using monthly data from January 1997 to August 2010.
The analysis shows that conventional bank deposit rates and PLS returns exhibit long-run cointegration and the time-varying volatility of conventional bank deposit rates and PLS returns is correlated and is statistically significant. The pairwise and multivariate causality tests show that conventional bank deposit rates Granger cause returns on PLS accounts. These findings have policy implications in terms of price stability and financial stability.
OECD annual inflation accelerates to 3.2% in May 2011
July 5, 2011--Consumer prices in the OECD area rose by 3.2% in the year to May 2011, compared with 2.9% in April - the highest rate since October 2008. This increase was mainly driven by a sharp acceleration of inflation in Canada (to 3.7% in May, up from 3.3% in April) and the United States (to 3.6%, up from 3.2%) with high food and energy prices being the main drivers.
For the OECD as a whole, the increase in food and energy prices accelerated to 3.9% and 14.2% respectively in May, compared with 3.1% and 13.8% in April.
Excluding food and energy, consumer prices rose by 1.7 % in May 2011, compared with 1.6% in April - the highest rate since July 2009.
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Panel reports out on China’s export measures on various raw materials
July 5, 2011--The WTO, on 5 July 2011, issued the reports of the panel that had examined complaints by the United States, the European Union and Mexico regarding “China — Measures Related to the Exportation of Various Raw Materials” (D394, D395 and D398, respectively).
view the CHINA – MEASURES RELATED TO THE EXPORTATION OF VARIOUS RAW MATERIALS-Reports of the Panel
Public Infrastructure, Labor Force Skills, and Access to Finance key to unleashing private sector growth
New World Bank Report Highlights Challenges to Enterprise Performance
July 5, 2011 – Businesses in Eastern Europe and Central Asia say that constraints in financing, infrastructure, and labor quality inhibit doing business in the region, according to a new report released today by the World Bank.
“What we find, is that constraints in these markets have worsened over time. In addition, firms of different sizes face varying constraints. For example, large firms had better access to external funding during the crisis and were able to survive the economic crisis much better than smaller firms.” said Yvonne Tsikata, Sector Director for Poverty Reduction and Economic Management in the World Bank’s Europe and Central Asia Region
The report – ‘Challenges to Enterprise Performance in the Face of the Financial Crisis’ – explores trends emerging from the 2008 Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey (BEEPS), carried out jointly with the EBRD. A triennial survey of businesses in the region, carried BEEPS captures private sector impressions of various aspects of the business environment.
Jovian shares jump over 33 percent on ETF sale talks
July 5, 2011--Shares of Jovian Capital Corp jumped over 33 percent on Tuesday after the company confirmed it was in talks with South Korea's Mirae Asset Global Management 037620.K to sell its 60 percent stake in Canada's No. 3 exchange-traded funds business, BetaPro Management.
Mirae is also interested in buying out minority shareholders in BetaPro, valuing the whole business at around C$150 million ($156.2 million).
While Jovian said there was no assurance the negotiations would lead to a deal, shares of the company rose C$2.55 to C$10.23 on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Tuesday. The shares had been halted on Monday.
ETFS Precious Metals Weekly: Cyclical metals benefit as Greece debt meltdown averted, US manufacturing picks up
July 5, 2011--Cyclical precious metal prices recover as the near-term risk of a negative growth shock from a Greek sovereign debt crisis eases, US manufacturing rebounds. Japan and US manufacturers are seeing industrial production rise faster
than expected post-Japan’s earthquake, boosting risk appetite despite moderating China manufacturing growth.
Platinum and palladium supply uncertainties resurface. Talk of mining tax, nationalization and further labour unrest in Africa thrust platinum and palladium supply vulnerabilities back into the spotlight last week. The combination of a pick-up
in expected US manufacturing growth and supply concerns helped push up both
platinum and palladium prices.
Gold sees strong buying interest below $1,500/oz. Gold prices eased last week amidst retreating risk aversion as crucial Greek deficit reduction measures were passed and a IMF/EU funding was secured. Bargain hunting emerged under $1500/oz however, making the break below short-lived.
Supply chain bottlenecks appear to be easing as the US ISM unexpectedly rose in June and Japan posted its largest jump in manufacturing activity since 1953 in May. Number one global automaker Toyota has announced a return to near full production by September – two months earlier than previously estimated. Rival Nissan announced that it is expecting a 10% rise in global vehicle sales in the year to April, having stocked up on auto components prior to Japan’s March 11 earthquake.
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Jovian in talks to sell ETF stake to Korea's Mirae
July 4, 2011--Jovian Capital Corp is in talks to sell its 60 percent stake in exchange traded funds business BetaPro Management to South Korea's Mirae Asset Global Investments Co, Jovian said on Monday.
Jovian said Mirae could also buy the stake held by minority shareholders based on an enterprise value of around C$150 million ($156.2 million) for the whole business.
If the negotiations are successful, a share purchase agreement could be signed in mid-July, Jovian said. It said there was no assurance the negotiations would lead to a deal.
D Börse-NYSE merger 'bad for markets'
July 4, 2011--Icap, the world’s largest interdealer broker, has hit out at the proposed combination of Deutsche Börse and NYSE Euronext, saying it would create a monopoly that would be “fundamentally bad for markets”.
Michael Spencer, Icap founder and chief executive, also criticised exchanges’ control of access to their clearing houses, where they own such post-trade businesses in a “vertical silo”.
LSE open to approach from Nasdaq
July 4, 2011--The London Stock Exchange would be open to considering a merger of equals with Nasdaq OMX, the US exchange operator, in the first sign that the British bourse could yet turn its attention to securing its future in another big merger after its attempted tie-up with Canada’s TMX Group collapsed.
Nasdaq’s chief executive, Bob Greifeld, is considering an approach for the LSE but people familiar with the matter said advisers were not yet formally involved. Nor had Mr Greifeld spoken with his counterpart at the LSE, Xavier Rolet.