Global ETF News Older than One Year
Global Financial Fragilities Mount Despite Rate Cuts and Buoyant Markets
October 22, 2024-- Increased investor risk-taking could fuel vulnerabilities
When it comes to financial stability, the world is facing a split screen of short-term and medium-term factors. The good news is that near-term financial stability risks remain contained.
Why? Because the likelihood of a soft landing for the global economy has significantly increased.
As inflation continues to decline, major central banks have started cutting interest rates. This is boosting already buoyant asset prices and keeping financial market volatility subdued.
At the same time, our latest Global Financial Stability Report calls on policymakers to remain vigilant about the medium-term prospects. We want to highlight two areas of concern.
Source: imf.org
IMF-As Inflation Recedes, Global Economy Needs Policy Triple Pivot
October 22, 2024--Let’s start with the good news: it looks like the global battle against inflation has largely been won, even if price pressures persist in some countries. After peaking at 9.4 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2022, we now project headline inflation will fall to 3.5 percent by the end of next year, slightly below the average during the two decades before the pandemic.
In most countries, inflation is now hovering close to central bank targets, paving the way for monetary easing across major central banks.
The global economy remained unusually resilient throughout the disinflationary process. Growth is projected to hold steady at 3.2 percent in 2024 and 2025, but some low-income and developing economies have seen sizable downside growth revisions, often tied to intensifying conflicts.
Source: imf.org
China stimulus unleashes ETF buying spree in US and Europe
October 10, 2024-A scramble for Chinese equities united the global investment industry last month, just as attitudes towards European and Japanese stock markets became heavily bifurcated along geographical lines.
Despite strong domestic enthusiasm, foreign exchange traded fund investors turned their backs on European and Japanese stock markets in September.
Yet global investors were unified in their enthusiasm for Chinese stocks after the People's Bank of China unveiled a series of stimulus measures that included monetary easing, steps to support the country's crisis-hit property market and a Rmb800bn fund to boost the stock market, by lending to asset managers, insurers and brokers to buy equities and to listed companies to buy back their stock.
Source: msn.com
Global goods trade on track for gradual recovery despite lingering downside risks
October 10, 2024--Global goods trade is projected to post a 2.7% increase in 2024, up slightly from the previous estimate of 2.6%, WTO economists said in an updated forecast on 10 October.
The volume of world merchandise trade is likely to increase by 3.0% in 2025; however, rising geopolitical tensions and increased economic policy uncertainty continue to pose substantial downside risks to the forecast.
Services trade has a more favourable outlook compared to goods according to leading indicators.
In the October 2024 update of "Global Trade Outlook and Statistics," WTO economists note that global merchandise trade turned upwards in the first half of 2024 with a 2.3% year-on-year increase, which should be followed by further moderate expansion in the rest of the year and in 2025. The rebound comes on the heels of a -1.1% slump in 2023 driven by high inflation and rising interest rates. World real GDP growth at market exchange rates is expected to remain steady at 2.7% in 2024 and 2025.
Source: World Trade Organization (WTO)
OECD headline inflation drops to 4.7% in August 2024 as energy inflation declines
October 3, 2024--"Year-on-year inflation in the OECD as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 4.7% in August 2024 from 5.4% in July.".
Year-on-year inflation in the OECD as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 4.7% in August 2024 from 5.4% in July. The fall was driven to a large extent by a decline of about 10 percentage points in Turkey inflation, which nevertheless still remained above 50%.
Declines were also observed in 24 of 38 of OECD countries. Excluding Turkey, inflation in the OECD area is estimated to have decreased more moderately, to 2.7% in August from 3.0% in July.
Inflation rose in nine OECD countries and was stable or broadly stable in five. Headline inflation stood at or below 2% in 16 countries in August, while only 9 countries had reached that mark in July.
Year-on-year OECD energy inflation fell significantly to minus 0.1% in August from 3.3% in July, with declines in 31 OECD countries. Year-on-year food inflation and core inflation (inflation less food and energy) declined in the OECD area, mainly due to sharp falls in Türkiye. Core inflation only fell in 9 countries while it rose in 10 and was stable or broadly stable in 19.
In the G7, year-on-year headline inflation eased to 2.4% in August from 2.7% in July, driven by energy prices. Headline inflation fell in all G7 countries except in Japan where it increased, and in the United Kingdom where headline inflation remained stable. Year-on-year headline inflation reached low levels last seen in 2021 in Canada and the United States (lowest level since February 2021), in Germany (since March 2021), and in France (since July 2021). Energy prices fell markedly, while G7 food and core inflation rates were stable.
Source: oecd.org
BIS-Monetary policy in an era of supply headwinds-do the old principles still stand?
October 2, 2024--Adverse supply shocks have played a significant role in the post-pandemic inflation surge, when inflation rates in advanced economies reached levels not seen since the 1970s. The future is likely to bring more volatile inflation due to less elastic supply capacities and more frequent adverse supply shocks, necessitating a re-evaluation of monetary policy principles and frameworks
The traditional approach of "looking through" supply-driven inflation has been based on the transitory nature of such shocks and anchored inflation expectations. However, the recent inflation surge has revealed that risks of inflation de-anchoring can emerge suddenly, and forceful monetary tightening may be required to re-anchor expectations and stabilise inflation. Going forward, more frequent adverse supply shocks mean that central banks must exercise care when assessing if they can look through their inflationary effects.
Source: BiS
WEF-Chief Economists Outlook: September 2024
September 25, 2024--The September 2024 Chief Economists Outlook explores key trends in the global economy, including the latest outlook for growth, inflation, monetary and fiscal policy, the implications of high public debt levels, and the prospects for a new growth agenda.
This latest edition of the Chief Economists Outlook launches amid continuing economic uncertainty. The short-term outlook for the global economy has begun to stabilize, but many vulnerabilities remain.
There are reasons for cautious optimism, notably including a continued gradual easing of inflation rates and a shift to looser monetary policy. However, the prolonged sluggish pace of global growth, compounded by heightened political volatility, leaves many countries vulnerable to economic shocks. Current debt dynamics are undermining government efforts to boost growth and leave countries poorly prepared for the next economic downturn. When it comes to the prospects for a new growth agenda, greater political consensus and international collaboration will be essential to balance the quality and quantity of growth.
Source: World Economic Forum (WEF)
OECD: Global economy is turning the corner as inflation declines and trade growth strengthens
September 25, 2024--The global economy is turning the corner as growth remained resilient through the first half of 2024, with declining inflation, though significant risks remain, according to the OECD's latest Interim Economic Outlook.
With robust growth in trade, improvements in real incomes and a more accommodative monetary policy in many economies, the Outlook projects global growth persevering at 3.2% in 2024 and 2025, after 3.1% in 2023.
Inflation is projected to be back to central bank targets in most G20 economies by the end of 2025. Headline inflation in the G20 economies is projected to ease to 5.4% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025, down from 6.1% in 2023, with core inflation in the G20 advanced economies easing to 2.7% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025.
Source: oecd.org
G20 GDP growth remains relatively stable in the second quarter of 2024
September 12, 2024--Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the G20 area remained relatively stable in Q2 2024, with a 0.7% quarter-on-quarter increase according to provisional estimates, slightly down from 0.8% in the previous quarter (Figure 1).
China, India, and the United States contributed the most to G20's economic growth in Q2 2024, 1 although Brazil and Saudi Arabia saw the highest growth rates (both at 1.4%). Growth in both China and India slowed (from 1.5% to 0.7% and from 1.7% to 1.3%, respectively).
Japan saw a significant recovery, from a 0.6% contraction in Q1 to a 0.7% expansion in Q2, whereas the United States recorded a more modest increase, from 0.4% to 0.7%.
The remaining G20 countries experienced weaker growth than the G20 as a whole, with GDP in Korea and Germany even contracting (by 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively). Growth in Turkey slowed sharply, from 1.4% to 0.1%. France, Italy, and the United Kingdom recorded minor decreases (with growth rates of 0.2%, 0.2% and 0.6% respectively). On the other hand, Canada and Mexico saw small increases (to 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively), while growth picked up in South Africa to 0.4% in Q2, after no growth in Q1. Growth remained stable in Australia at 0.2% and little change was observed in the European Union and the euro area, both zones recording 0.2% in Q2 compared to 0.3% in Q1 2024.
Source: oecd.org
Goods barometer rises above trend, signalling upturn in trade volume
September 4, 2024--Global goods trade has continued to recover in the third quarter of 2024 after demand for traded goods stalled in 2023 amid high inflation and rising interest rates, according to the latest WTO Goods Trade Barometer.
Despite the positive signal from the barometer index, the outlook for trade remains highly uncertain due to rising geopolitical tensions, ongoing regional conflicts, shifting monetary policy in advanced economies and weakening export orders.
The Goods Trade Barometer is a composite leading indicator for world trade, providing real-time information on the trajectory of merchandise trade relative to recent trends. Barometer values greater than 100 are associated with above-trend trade volumes while barometer values less than 100 suggest that goods trade has either fallen below trend or will do so in the near future.
The full Goods Trade Barometer is available here.
Source: World Trade Organization (WTO)
