Global ETF News Older than One Year
IMF: World Economic Outlook - Slowing Growth, Rising Risks
September 20, 2011--Relative to our previous World Economic Outlook last April, the economic recovery
has become much more uncertain. The
world economy suffers from the confluence of two adverse developments. The first is a much slower recovery in advanced economies since the beginning of the year, a development we largely
failed to perceive as it was happening. The second is a large increase in fiscal and financial uncertainty,
which has been particularly pronounced since August.
Each of these developments is worrisome— their combination and their interactions more so. Strong policies are urgently needed to improve the outlook and reduce the risks.
Growth, which had been strong in 2010, decreased in 2011. This slowdown did not initially cause too much worry. We had forecast some slowdown, due to the end of the inventory cycle and fiscal consolidation. One-time events, from the earthquake and tsunami in Japan to shocks to the supply of oil, offered plausible explanations for a further slowdown. And the initial U.S. data understated the size of the slowdown itself. Now that the numbers are in, it is clear that more was going on.
view the MF: World Economic Outlook - Slowing Growth, Rising Risks report
Source: IMF
FOA Announces Independent Study On The Impact Of Speculative Trading In Commodity Markets
September 20, 2011--The Futures and Options Association (FOA) announces the findings of a report on speculation in commodities markets. The report “The impact of speculative trading in commodity markets – a review of the evidence”, which was compiled by the economic research group, FTI Consulting (FTI), constitutes a literature review of the evidence on market speculation and an investigation into the underlying arguments for and against
financial participation in commodity markets.
The report notes that speculation is one element of financial activity in commodity markets (which may also
include portfolio hedging and investment diversification). FTI found little evidence to support the common
perception that speculation is a direct or major cause of long-term pricing trends but recommends that further
work should be undertaken to fully understand the complex interaction between financial and commodity
markets. In addition, the report concluded:
speculation is not a major cause of market volatility, but can amplify underlying price movements;
the most critical reports accept that, at worst, speculation accounts for no more than 25% of
commodity price movements in recent years, leading to the conclusion that 75% of such movements
Source: FOA
Opportunities to hide in murky world of ETFs
September 19, 2011--Director ETF and Delta1 Trading,” read the job title listed on the LinkedIn profile of Kweku Adoboli, the junior trader charged last week with causing a $2.3bn loss at UBS.
Just underneath this line in Mr Adoboli’s profile was a much more telling career detail: the 31-year-old Ghanaian’s former position in the back office of UBS as a “Trade Support Analyst”.
Source: FT.com
Copper Tumbles Most in 10 Months on Mounting European-Debt Woes
September 19, 2011-Copper futures tumbled the most in 10 months on speculation that Europe’s escalating debt woes will hinder the global economy, eroding demand for industrial metals.
European manufacturing contracted in September for the second straight month, economists said before a report on a purchasing-managers index this week. Europe’s economy is cooling as governments extend spending cuts to narrow budget deficits. In China, home prices in all 70 cities monitored rose for the first time this year, the statistics bureau said yesterday.
Source: Bloomberg Business Week
Growth Spillover Dynamics from Crisis to Recovery-IMF Working paper
September 19, 2011--Summary: Can positive growth shocks from the faster-growing countries in Europe spill over to the slower growing countries, providing useful tailwinds to their recovery process? This study investigates the potential relevance of growth spillovers in the context of the crisis and the recovery process.
Based on a VAR framework, our analysis suggests that the U.S. and Japan remain the key source of growth spillovers in this recovery, with France also playing an important role for the European crisis countries. Notwithstanding the current export-led cyclical upswing, Germany generates relatively small outward spillovers compared to other systemic countries, but likely plays a key role in transmitting and amplifying external growth shocks to the rest of Europe given its more direct exposure to foreign shocks compared to other European countries. Positive spillovers from Spain were important prior to the 2008 - 09 crisis, however Spain is generating negative spillovers in this recovery due to a depressed domestic demand. Negative spillovers from the European crisis countries appear limited, consistent with their modest size.
view the Growth Spillover Dynamics from Crisis to Recovery -IMF Working paper
Source: IMF
ETFS Precious Metals Weekly: Gold price drop short-lived as bargain hunters emerge below $1,800/oz
September 19, 2011--Gold prices ended last week close to $1,800/oz despite a marginal easing in bank jitters on international liquidity coordination. The announcement that major central banks would coordinate to extend short term loans to Euro-region banks saw risk aversion dialled back a touch, though the move was largely interpreted by markets as yet another stop-gap measure. The intra-week drop in
gold prices below $1,800/oz stimulated a jump in gold trading activity in emerging markets, mirroring recent trends.
Metals consultancy Thomson Reuters GFMS forecast record gold investment in H2 2011, as spot prices seen breaking $2,000/oz by year end. The consultancy sees investment demand as the main driver of price growth for the remainder of 2011, with public sector investment increasingly complementing emerging market-led private sector demand. Investment is expected to double from H1 levels to $60bn.
Platinum prices hold their ground as the gold:platinum ratio approaches record high. Platinum spot prices have held relatively steady over the past 3 months, in contrast to palladium, as speculative futures investor positioning continues to hold at its highest level in six months. Platinum is now at its cheapest level relative to gold since the height of the post-Lehman credit crisis in 2008.
London to see second new precious metals vault in as many years as sharp rise in investor demand for vaulted gold bars spurs building of extra facilties. Investors own 2,145 tons of metal in exchange traded products according to Bloomberg estimates, holdings that are greater than all but the largest four central banks.
visit www.etfsecurities.com for more info
Source: ETF Securities
Dow Jones Indexes Reclassifies Colombia To ‘Emerging’ From ‘Frontier’ Markets Status After Annual Review of Its Country Classification System
11 Countries Added to Classification System as ‘Frontier’ Markets:
4 from Europe, 4 Middle East/Africa, 3 Asia/Pacific
September 16, 2011-- Dow Jones Indexes, a leading global index provider, today announced it reclassified Colombia to “Emerging Markets” status from “Frontier Markets” status, and added 11 countries to Frontier Markets status following the annual review of the Dow Jones Indexes Country Classification System. The changes are effective as of March 19, 2012.
Designed with the global investor in mind, the Dow Jones Indexes Country Classification System is used to classify all countries covered in Dow Jones Indexes’ major index families. Assessments of the countries are used to produce a country classification assignment into one of three categories:
Developed Markets: the most accessible to, and supportive of, foreign investors with a high degree of consistency across these markets;
Emerging Markets, which generally have less accessibility relative to developed markets, but demonstrate a level of openness; and
Source: Dow Jones Indexes
August 2011 FIF Market Share and Market Dynamics Reports – Executive Summary
September 15, 2011--U.S. Equities Market Share
Share volumes traded across Tape A, B, and C increased 74% monthly to 243 billion shares the highest since March 2009.
In August 2011, off-exchange trading accounted for 27% of the shares traded in NMS Equity Securities which is the lowest since February 2009.
Share volumes in NYSE-listed securities
increased 75% monthly to 133 billion shares, the highest since May 2009.
NASDAQ-listed securities traded over exchange increased 53% monthly to 58 billion shares, the highest since October 2008.
view August 2011 FIF Market Share and Market Dynamics Reports – Executive Summary
Source: Financial Information Forum (FIF)
IOSCO announces commodity derivatives markets supervisory principles
September 15, 2011--The Technical Committee of the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) has today published its report on Principles for the Regulation and Supervision of Commodity Derivatives Markets. The Report, prepared by the Task Force on Commodity Futures Markets, addresses the G20’s November 2010 request for further work on regulation and supervision of physical commodity derivatives markets.
The Principles are aimed at ensuring a globally consistent approach to the oversight of commodity derivatives markets which will deliver effective supervision, combats market manipulation and improves price transparency. They are aimed at contributing to enhanced price discovery in commodity derivative markets as opposed in themselves to addressing absolute price levels or price volatility in an underlying physical commodity.
The Principles update and add to the guidance in the 1997 Tokyo Communiqué which set benchmarks for contract design, market surveillance and information sharing for physical commodity derivatives markets. They are primarily intended to apply to exchange-traded futures contracts, futures contracts options and options referenced to a physical commodity, index or price series which may settle in cash or by physical delivery, although many of the principles will also be applicable to OTC markets.
Source: IOSCO
Resource Summit Predicts Dangerous Future Trend towards Nationalization
September 15, 2011--More than 20 mining and metal industry leaders and cross-industry partners unanimously predicted an inevitable future increase in government nationalization of critical resources over the next two decades as a burgeoning middle class in emerging economies begins to demand higher living standards.
“The resounding answer was that nationalizations will take place and that this is not a good thing,” said Richard O’Brien, President and Chief Executive Officer of Newmont Mining Corporation, USA. The corporate executives were meeting as part of this year’s Resource Summit, a feature of the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting of the New Champions 2011 in Dalian, People’s Republic of China. The Summit is part of an ongoing dialogue on resource issues sponsored by the World Economic Forum. If nationalizations do take place, they will very likely have a negative impact on globalization and world trade.
By 2030, the world population will pass the 8 billion mark, and shortages are likely to be felt in water and food as well as petroleum mineral resources. In a panel discussion on resources, Sir Mohammad Jaafar, Chairman and Managing Director of the Kuwaiti Danish Dairy Company, Kuwait, noted that, by 2030, matching European living standards would require three planets of natural resources, and to match US living standards would require at least five. While it may be possible to meet some of the increasing demand with technology and innovation, prices – especially on fuel – will inevitably rise and even populations in the US and Europe will be forced to modify their lifestyles.
Source: World Economic Forum
