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LCH.Clearnet Goes Exclusive With Markit
August 15, 2011--LCH.Clearnet, the embattled Anglo-French clearing house, has entered into exclusive negotiations with Markit, the credit information and market infrastructure provider, regarding a potential takeover of the clearing house,
according to two sources familiar with the situation.
The LCH.Clearnet management approached shareholders at the end of June to seek permission to enter into exclusive discussions with ...
ETF Securities-Research Update: CME Hikes Gold Margins 22% - What Does it Mean for the Gold Price?
August 12, 2011--Summary:
The CME raised margin requirements on COMEX gold futures positions 22% effective 11 August 2011. The
increase has been compared to the margin requirement increases on COMEX silver futures in May 2011 that
precipitated a sharp fall in the silver price during that period. Below we take a closer look at the current
situation and assess the likelihood of a similar situation developing for gold.
Key points:
The CME increased margin requirements on US gold futures positions by 22%. The hike went into effect at
the end of trade on 11 August 2011. There is some concern that the rise may be a precursor to more
aggressive margin increases that might spark a sell-off similar to the silver price correction in May 2011
following an 84% increase in COMEX silver futures margin requirements in the April-May period.
Based on current volatility levels, gold margin requirements are unlikely to be increased as sharply as those for silver in May. On our calculations, based on current volatility, average gold margin requirements have the potential to be increased by up to another 16% or so, bringing total margin increases to around 38%, less than half the rise faced by silver futures investors in May. Over the past two and a half years, similar levels of volatility have historically been associated with an average margin requirement equivalent to around 4.2% of the front month gold futures price. After the most recent increase, the ratio stands at approximately 3.6%, indicating a possible 0.6% further increase as a proportion of current futures pricing if the historic relationship between volatility and margin requirements hold. This would be equivalent to a total potential average margin requirement rise of around 38%.
visit www.etfsecurities.com for more info.
Brent crude recovers as traders spot opportunity
August 12, 2011--Commodities rebounded to end a tumultuous week at a higher level than where they began, as investors and companies interpreted the slide in prices as a buying opportunity.
Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, rallied nearly $10 a barrel from a low of $98.74 a barrel on Tuesday to close at $108.03 on Friday. Over the week, Brent was down just 1 per cent.
Oil Shocks in a Global Perspective: Are they Really that Bad?- IMF working paper
August 11, 2011--Summary: Using a comprehensive global dataset, we outline stylized facts characterizing relationships between crude oil prices and macroeconomic developments across the world. Approaching the data from several angles, we find that the impact of higher oil prices on oil-importing economies is generally small: a 25 percent increase in oil prices typically causes GDP to fall by about half of one percent or less.
While cross-country differences in impact are found to depend mainly on the relative size of oil imports, we also show that oil price shocks are not always costly for oil-importing countries: although higher oil prices increase the import bill, there are partly offsetting increases in external receipts. We provide a small open economy model illustrating the main transmission channels of oil shocks, and show how the recycling of petrodollars may mitigate the impact.
view the IMF Working paper-Oil Shocks in a Global Perspective: Are they Really that Bad?
Gold pulls back from $1,800 record high
August 11, 2011--Gold dropped from record highs above $1,800 a troy ounce on Thursday as short-term traders pulled out of the market amid a rally in equities.
The fall was amplified by an announcement late on Wednesday from CME Group, which owns the Comex exchange in New York, that it would raise margin requirements – or the amount of cash investors must set aside in order to hold futures positions – for gold futures trading by 22 per cent at the end of Thursday.
Markets carnage wipes out $4 trillion
August 11, 2011--About $4 trillion has been wiped off the value of world stocks this month on concerns the eurozone debt crisis is spreading to Italy and Spain and hurting Europe's banking system, and the global economy is falling into recession.
The sum wiped off the MSCI All-Country World Index - about one-seventh of its value - is almost equivalent to the size of the combined economies of Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland and Greece.
The sell-off this week knocked nearly $1.6 trillion off the market capitalisation of the global benchmark after last week's $2.5 trillion loss
Emerging market bubble more likely in equities than debt, says FSI
August 11, 2011--A bubble is less likely to develop in emerging markets debt than in equities, according to First State Investments (FSI).
Gary Withers, FSI's regional managing director for EMEA, told IPE: "Due to the inflow of money and high level of returns, we have been concerned about asset bubbles potentially developing on the emerging markets equity side.
Crude oil prices have plunged for the third time in three months
Concerns over debt levels in Europe and the US, and signs of slowing economic growth in China and India have spooked the market - August Oil Market Report
August 11, 2011--Crude oil prices have plunged for the third time in three months, reviving all the old clichés about roller-coaster volatility. In passing, we note that just as a certain asymmetry in pump prices is often remarked upon, so too policy makers seem rather less concerned with price volatility when it is to the downside (although arguably there are bigger problems to worry about with financial meltdown on the horizon).
Brent and WTI futures at the time of writing are flirting with lows near $100/bbl and $80/bbl respectively. Brent at $125/bbl back in late-April seems a long time ago. Concerns over debt levels in Europe and the US, and signs of slowing economic growth in China and India have spooked the market and raised fears in some quarters of a double-dip recession.
From an oil market standpoint, perceived wisdom is that this must inevitably mean weaker oil demand to come. With extra crude volumes now hitting the market after OPEC boosted supply and the IEA released emergency stocks, this has been sufficient to sharply weaken prices. Lower energy input costs are well and good, but not if they are achieved at the cost of another economic crisis. Arguably, political paralysis has played a greater role in the current situation than has the financial sector. Either way, earlier bullish oil market prognoses are being hastily re-examined.
Our own base case demand trend remains remarkably unscathed, partly since our view of 2011 demand growth was already below that of some of our peers. That said, our global 2011/2012 GDP growth assumption in excess of 4% might seem optimistic in the present climate. Downward adjustments to recent US and Chinese demand data carry forward through 2012. But there are inter-fuel substitution offsets, notably in Japan.
Systemic Risk and Optimal Regulatory Architecture-IMF working paper
August 10, 2011--Summary: Until the recent financial crisis, the safety and soundness of financial institutions was assessed from the perspective of the individual institution. The financial crisis highlighted the need to take systemic externalities seriously when rethinking prudential oversight and the regulatory architecture. Current financial reform legislation worldwide reflects this intent.
However, these reforms have overlooked the need to also consider regulatory agencies’ forbearance and information sharing incentives. In a political economy model that explicitly accounts for systemic connectedness, and regulators’ incentives, we show that under an expanded mandate to explicitly oversee systemic risk, regulators would be more forbearing towards systemically important institutions. We also show that when some regulators have access to information regarding an institutions’ degree of systemic importance, these regulators may have little incentive to gather and share it with other regulators. These findings suggest that (and we show conditions under which) a unified regulatory arrangement can reduce the degree of systemic risk vis-á-vis a multiple regulatory arrangement.
view IMF working paper-Systemic Risk and Optimal Regulatory Architecture
Trading volumes hit record levels
August 10, 2011--Trading in equities and derivatives has hit record levels this week as investors traded frantically in response to a tumult of factors such as the US Federal Reserve’s decision to stick with near-zero interest rates until 2013, fears over the US’s credit rating and the eurozone debt crisis.
Trading in currencies and gold, seen by many investors as a “safe haven” alternative to dollars, have spiked as central banks in the US, Europe and Japan have intervened to attempt to pump liquidity into currency, equity and sovereign debt markets.