OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report-May 2012
May 16, 2012--Oil Market Highlights
After three consecutive monthly gains, the OPEC Reference Basket declined in April to settle at $118.18/b, representing a drop of $4.79 or 3.9%. Prices remain elevated by the risk premium associated with ongoing geopolitical factors.
The decline in the value of the Basket came with the start of the first month of the typically low demand season in the second quarter. Crude prices shifted into contango for the first time in over a year amid higher supplies and weak consumption. The decline in crude oil prices occurred as refined product prices came down from the peak levels seen in previous months. Moreover, rising global supply contributed to an increase in inventories, preventing prices from moving higher. On 9 May, the OPEC Reference Basket stood at $109.85/b.
World economic growth expectations for 2012 remain unchanged at 3.3%. The US continues to enjoy solid momentum, with the growth forecast revised up by 0.1 pp to 2.3%. In contrast, the Eurozone continues to weaken and is now expected to contract by 0.4%, compared to the minus 0.3% forecast in the previous month. The growth forecast for Japan remains unchanged at 1.8%. With these offsetting revisions in the OECD, growth in the export-led emerging economies is also unchanged. India is expected to expand by 6.9% in 2012, while China is projected to grow at a solid 8.2%. Overall, the global economic outlook remains fragile, with heightened uncertainties in the Euro-zone and potential spill-over effects in the emerging markets.
World oil demand growth in 2012 now stands at 0.9 mb/d, broadly unchanged from the previous report. Given the stabilization of the US economy and the shutdown of Japanese nuclear power plants, world oil demand growth has – at least for the short-term – stopped its declining trend and is showing some growth. Oil demand in non-OECD countries is also indicating a slight improvement. The upcoming driving season in the US might be affected by higher retail gasoline prices and uncertainty regarding economic developments. Japan’s oil usage also could slow if the country were to restart its nuclear plants.
Source: OPEC
Lack of Trust in the Use of Personal Data Threatens to Undermine Digital Economy
New World Economic Forum report, Rethinking Personal Data: Strengthening Trust, examines the impact of trust on personal data use and its potential to drive economic and social value creation
In today's hyperconnected world, trusted data flows are vital for a long-term, balanced ecosystem
The report offers a range of recommendations to bolster trust in personal data usage
May 16, 2012--The lack of trust in how personal data is protected and used has the potential to jeopardize the economic and social value of this important asset class, according to a new World Economic Forum report released today.
Rethinking Personal Data: Strengthening Trust, developed in collaboration with The Boston Consulting Group, explores how the use of personal data can unlock value for governments, organizations and individuals.
The report highlights that trust is declining given numerous high-profile data security breaches, rampant identity theft, a general lack of transparency in how personal data is monetized, and an absence of globally harmonized policies for privacy and the use of data. With the Internet economy of the G20 estimated to nearly double to US$ 4.2 trillion by 2016, its growth could be constrained if the flow of personal data is overly restricted. Areas that could be affected include financial services, healthcare, online retail and marketing, social media and others.
view WEF report-. Rethinking Personal Data: Strengthening Trust
Source: WEF
IOSCO The MMoU: Ten years of Enhancing Cross-border Enforcement Cooperation
May 16, 2012--The Annual Conference of the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) in Beijing marks the 10th anniversary of the Multinational Memorandum of Understanding[1], the instrument used by securities regulators to help ensure effective global regulation and preserve and strengthen securities markets around the globe.
In Beijing, the MMoU is being hailed as the pre-eminent standard for international enforcement cooperation and information sharing. Established in May 2002, the MMoU has provided securities regulators with the tools for combating the cross-border fraud and misconduct that can weaken global markets and undermine investor confidence.
Source: IOSCO
Chicago Board Options Exchange and China Financial Futures Exchange Sign Memorandum of Understanding
May 16, 2012--The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and the China Financial Futures Exchange (CFFEX) announced today that they signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), which establishes an open channel of communication and lays the foundation for future collaborative efforts between the exchanges.
Executives from both exchanges signed the MOU today at a ceremony in Beijing, China.
The MOU creates an avenue for sharing information and resources between the exchanges, including development of educational programs designed to build understanding of the exchanges' respective products, markets, technologies and regulation. The agreement also creates the opportunity for potential future business initiatives, including joint marketing efforts and product development.
"We are pleased to enter into an agreement with CFFEX that formalizes our long-standing friendship and establishes a strategic alliance between our exchanges," said CBOE Chairman and Chief Executive Officer William J. Brodsky. "Options are important investment and risk management tools and will be an essential part of CFFEX's product development efforts. We look forward to collaborating on initiatives that could benefit both exchanges and potentially expand the global reach of options."
Source: CBOE
NYSE Euronext and China Financial Futures Exchange
Exchanges Enter into Agreement to Develop Futures and Options Markets in Europe, US and China
May 16, 2012-NYSE Euronext (NYX) and the China Financial Futures Exchange (CFFEX) today signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to promote a bilateral partnership to support the development of the exchanges futures and options markets
The agreement was designed to explore opportunities for extending the global reach of both exchanges. The MOU will enable the two exchanges to explore opportunities for information sharing; exchanging and training employees; as well as business cooperation such as joint research into developing strategies for the derivatives market.
“Asia is a strategic priority for NYSE Euronext and we are delighted to partner with Mr. Zhu and his colleagues at the China Financial Futures Exchange,” said Duncan L. Niederauer, Chief Executive Officer, NYSE Euronext. “This agreement deepens our long term commitment to the region, and by sharing best practices and working collaboratively, CFFEX and NYSE Euronext will further promote the development and advancement of both the Asian and global financial markets.”
Source: NYSE Euronext
Global Trade Logistics Performance Slows Down Amid Recession and Major Events
But many countries like Chile, China, India, Morocco, South Africa, and
the U.S. continued to improve
May 15, 2012-Progress in trade logistics performance slowed down over the last two years amid the global recession, but countries that pursued aggressive reforms continued to improve their performance, according to the World Bank's latest survey on trade logistics.
Singapore is the top performer among the 155 economies included in the Logistics Performance Indicators (LPI), which are part of the Connecting to Compete 2012: Trade Logistics in the Global Economy report. Countries like Chile, China, India, Morocco, South Africa, Turkey, and the U.S. all improved their previous performance, according to the study, which is based on a comprehensive world survey of international freight forwarders and express carriers.
“Trade logistics is key to economic competitiveness, growth, and poverty reduction,” said Otaviano Canuto, World Bank Vice President for Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM). “Unfortunately, the logistics gap between rich and poor countries continues and the convergence trend experienced between 2007 and 2010 has stalled as events like the global recession, and the European debt crisis shifted attention away from logistics reform.”
view World Bank report-Connecting to Compete-Trade Logistics in the Global Economy
Source: World Bank
IMF Working paper- Why House Price Indexes Differ: Measurement and Analysis
May 15, 2012--Summary: A key element in the build-up to the global recession and subsequently was the movement in house price indexes (HPIs). These indexes are particularly prone to methodological and coverage differences which can undermine both within-country and cross-country economic analysis.
The paper outlines key measurement issues and reports on empirical work using an international panel data set that (i) considers whether differences in HPI measurement matter and, if so, in what way, and (ii) revisits the measurement of global house price inflation and the modeling of the determinants of house price inflation using HPIs corrected for differences in measurement practice.
view the IMF Working paper-Why House Price Indexes Differ: Measurement and Analysis
Source: IMF
New Credit Factors From Markit Create Trading Signals For CDS
The new data service, Markit Credit Factors, will provide customers with the first sentiment signals for CDS produced by an independent financial information firm.
Developed through extensive research by Markit, the Credit Factors can be used in evaluating the expected performance of CDS and include fundamental, technical and macroeconomic-based indicators. These Factors span nine categories, including measures of relative value, earnings momentum, earnings quality and price momentum. In total, the Markit Credit Factors library includes more than 80 measures and covers the global universe of more than 1,500 single name CDS.
Tim Sargent, Managing Director and Head of Markit Data Analytics & Research, said: “It is exciting for us to extend the sophisticated analytics we developed for equities to fixed income assets like CDS. While it is intuitive that there are relationships between asset classes, our research behind the new Credit Factors identifies the correlations between equities and CDS. We think that providing, for the first time, the ability for CDS traders and risk managers to systematically analyse signals from the equity and other markets is a significant advance.”
Source: Markit
NYSE Euronext Rolls Out New Brand Identity
“Our new branding evokes an organization with both a strong vision and rich heritage, positioned to pursue our growth strategy: empowering the world’s capital market community to innovate and collaborate,” said Marisa Ricciardi, Senior Vice President and Global Head of Marketing. “NYSE Euronext has transformed dramatically over the course of the last five years, and we sought to better represent our position today and direction for the future.”
Source: NYSE Euronext
Mirae BRICs Weekly-Global Markets Stumble due to Elections Uncertainty
India
In reaction to the depreciating rupee, the Reserve Bank of India cut the amount of overseas income companies can hold in foreign currency to 50 percent from 100 percent, forcing them to convert earnings. As a result, the rupee gained yesterday.
Brazil An extended period of single-digit interest rates is now expected, an historical first for Brazil, though inflation expectations are gradually moving upwards as a result. Market direction will in part be dictated by the BCB’s success in managing inflation expectations, at the same time forcing nominal and real interest rates lower.
Russia
The fragile Spanish banking system and victory for the Socialist candidate François Hollande in the French Presidential elections have also contributed to a heightened sense of nervousness across global equity markets. Eurozone stability and visibility are likely pre-requisites for a sustainable rally in risk assets.
Source: Mirae Asset Management
May 14, 2012-- Markit, a leading, global financial information services company, today announced that it has created a new set of tools to help traders and risk managers identify the correlations between changes in the value of credit default swaps (CDS) and movements in stock and options markets.
Logo Design and Color Palette Reflect Organization Built to Unlock the World's Potential
May 14, 2012--NYSE Euronext (NYX) today unveiled a new brand identity that underscores the company's growing role in unlocking the potential of its global community. The new look was unveiled today across its exchanges and other locations around the world as well as online.
May 14, 2012--Markets surprised by bad data.
Hong Kong and China stock markets fell last week when both elections in the euro area and economic data in China cast uncertainty to economic growth.
Consumer price index inflation eased to 3.4% year-on-year (YoY) in April from 3.6% YoY in March. Food price rise moderated by 7% YoY.
Rupee rebounds as RBI boosts the dollar supply.
The SENSEX index recorded a loss last week as industrial production contracted unexpectedly, which led to a drop in the Indian rupee against the USD. Indian rupee has been declining for six weeks, the longest losing streak since October 2008.
Single-digit interest rate will be maintained.
Brazilian equities fell 3.9% in BRL terms in the week ending May 10th, the market fast giving back its Q1 gains as a result of rising risk within the Eurozone and deteriorating earnings momentum for the large cap sectors.
Dmitry Medvedev confirmed as prime minister by the Duma.
Greece is expected to remain the single most important near-term driver for global markets. The country’s political and social stability is necessary to achieve progress in reducing debt levels and returning towards positive growth.
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