'Algo' market makers reshaped trading
August 2, 2012--Knight Capital's rise to prominence on the New York Stock Exchange illustrates how trading on US equity markets has been reshaped in the past decade.
Along with rivals such as Citadel Securities, Getco Securities, IMC and Optiver, it is one of the new breed of electronic traders and market makers that have come to dominate US and European trading flows. They use computer algorithms to make bids and offers in shares, futures, options and currencies.
Source: FT.com
IMF Spillover Report 2012
August 2, 2012--Summary:Spillover reports examine the external effects of domestic policies in five systemic economies (S5), comprising China, the Euro Area, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The report aims to provide an added perspective to the policy line developed in the Article IV discussions with these entities and an input into the Fund's broader multilateral surveillance.
Topics for this report were chosen based on consultations with officials from the S5 and selected emerging markets (Brazil, the Czech Republic, India, Korea, Mexico, Poland, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, and Turkey). Each participant was asked about policy concerns and spillovers from the S5. To facilitate candor, the report does not attribute views regarding partner countries.
Rather than try to capture the full range of spillovers, this report builds on last year’s findings, focusing on the forward-looking issues raised by partners and on S5 officials’ reactions.
view the IMF Spillover Report 2012
Source: IMF
IMF Working paper-Bond Yields in Emerging Economies: It Matters What State You Are In
July 2, 2012--Summary: While many studies have looked into the determinants of yields on externally issued sovereign bonds of emerging economies, analysis of domestically issued bonds has hitherto been limited, despite their growing relevance.
This paper finds that the extent to which fiscal variables affect domestic bond yields in emerging economies depends on the level of global risk aversion. During tranquil times in global markets, fiscal variables do not seem to be a significant determinant of domestic bond yields in emerging economies. However, when market participants are on edge, they pay greater attention to country-specific fiscal fundamentals, revealing greater alertness about default risk.
view the IMF Working paper-Bond Yields in Emerging Economies: It Matters What State You Are In
Source: IMF
IMF chief warns on decline in confidence
August 1, 2012-- International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde on Wednesday warned that the world was suffering a crisis of confidence amid tumult in Europe and looming problems in the United States.
Citing a litany of problems, from Greece's sovereign debt crisis to poor economic data, Lagarde told reporters "what we're seeing at the moment is clearly a decline of confidence."
And for good reason given the "relatively bleak picture" on the global economic scene.
Source: EUbusiness
FTSE Announces the Launch of the FTSE Global Minimum Variance Index Series
August 1, 2012--FTSE Group ("FTSE"), the award winning global index provider, today announces the launch of the FTSE Global Minimum Variance Index Series.
FTSE has combined its index and analytics expertise to develop the new FTSE Global Minimum Variance Index Series. Peter Gunthorp, Managing Director - Research & Analytics, comments: “In the current economic environment and given the nature of equity market returns in recent years, investors are increasingly interested in lower volatility investments which concentrate on improving their risk return profile whilst maintaining their allocation to global equity markets. The FTSE Global Minimum Variance Index Series will provide global investors with new product and benchmarking opportunities to meet their requirements.”
Source: FTSE
Italy-The Next Chapter in the Eurozone Debt Crisis
August 1, 2012--After recently returning from Italy and France and analyzing the economic data coming out of Italy, we have a higher conviction that Italy will be stuck in a severe recession and has an elevated probability of requiring a bailout.
Our main theme, which is similar to our view of the United States, is that Italy has too much public debt and is lacking the political will to make the necessary expense cuts and stimulate its economy to successfully navigate the deleveraging that is required. In addition, the structural problems imbedded in Italy’s economy and the broader Eurozone are an impediment to fixed investment and private capital expansion which is forcing Italy’s economy to slow.
Source: Greg Hahn, Winthrop Capital Management
NASDAQ OMX NordicTrading Statistics July 2012
August 1, 2012--NASDAQ OMX today publishes monthly trade statistics
for the Nordic and Baltic markets.
Below follows a summary of the highlights for July 2012:
The share trading on NASDAQ OMX Nordic decreased by 22.2 % to a daily average of 1.7bn EUR, compared to 2.2bn EUR in July 2011. Compared to the previous month, June 2012, the daily average decreased by 15.3 %.
Derivatives trading decreased by 10.7 % to a daily average of 380,463 contracts, compared with 426,105 contracts in July 2011.
ETF trading1 (Exchange Traded Funds) decreased by 7.1 % to a daily average of 49m EUR compared to 52m EUR in July 2011.
Source: Wall Street Journal
STOXX Monthly Index Report-July 2012 In Review
August 1, 2012--As of July 31, 2012 stock market indices in Europe, Asia, the U.S. and globally were up in July, according to global index provider STOXX Limited.
For the month of July, the Europe, Asia, global markets and U.S. markets were up 4.06%, 3.06%, 4.24% and 4.32%, respectively.
Source: STOXX
Macro Matters-China PMI: A rebound is coming
July 31, 2012--China's PMI in July is 50.1-slightly below our forecast of 50.2 but disappointing the market consensus of 50.5. However, after seasonally adjusting the official PMI series, we think this reading actually suggests an improvement on June's reading of 50.2. In addition, the pick-up in domestic activities due to eased policy appears to be offsetting weak external demand and rising unemployment.
Looking forward, we expect a shallow rebound in the PMI in August and September as manufacturers enter the production season for holiday orders.
Seasonality means July’s PMI is not the disappointment it appears to be
The official PMI in July registered a reading of 50.1, slightly weaker than June’s 50.2 (Figure 1). July’s PMI is in line with our forecast of 50.2 but disappoints the market consensus of 50.5. However, as we always point out, official PMI has strong seasonality. On average, July reads 0.9 weaker than June (Figures 2 and 3). This year’s July reading, only 0.1 weaker than June’s, therefore suggests to us an improvement in the manufacturing sector.
Source: Mirae Asset Financial Group
IMF Working paper-Measuring Systemic Liquidity Risk and the Cost of Liquidity Insurance
July 31, 2012--Summary: Construct of a systemic liquidity risk index (SLRI) from data on violations of arbitrage relationships across several asset classes between 2004 and 2010.
Then I test whether the equity returns of 53 global banks were exposed to this liquidity risk factor. Results show that the level of bank returns is not directly affected by the SLRI, but their volatility increases when liquidity conditions deteriorate. I do not find a strong association between bank size and exposure to the SLRI - measured as the sensitivity of volatility to the index. Surprisingly, exposure to systemic liquidity risk is positively associated with the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR). The link between equity volatility and the SLRI allows me to calculate the cost that would be borne by public authorities for providing liquidity support to the financial sector. I use this information to estimate a liquidity insurance premium that could be paid by individual banks in order to cover for that social cost.
view the IMF Working paper-Measuring Systemic Liquidity Risk and the Cost of Liquidity Insurance
Source: IMF