Macro Matters-Waiting for the Troika Review on Greece
August 28, 2012--China
Property market may be further tightened.
Hong Kong and Chinese stock markets dropped, led by declines in developers as concerns resurfaced over additional property-tightening measures.
The unlikely RRR cut for commercial lenders further weighed down the market. A news agency reported, given recent increase in property price, government may continue to tighten the property market. Official property price data added to investors jitters as average housing prices mildly rose for two consecutive months.
India
Central bank reluctant to cut rates.
Despite a rally early last week, gains were pared on last Friday as investors scaled back expectations for a strong stimulus from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Concerns grew throughout the week that economic reforms may be delayed as the parliament was adjourned. Opposition parties blocked all legislative proceedings in the monsoon session of Parliament, as they demanded the resignation of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh over the coal allocations.
Brazil
August’s CPI reported above consensus.
Brazilian equities trimmed recent gains last week. Despite a broadly weak local Q2 earnings season, focus is on improving GDP growth and earnings outlook for the second half, and expectations of potential further stimulus.
The relief rally in August led by steel and home building stocks were largely attributable to technical factors rather than material change in fundamentals.
First Waiting for the Troika review on Greece.
Friday’s meeting of US Central Bankers at Jackson Hole is the main focus this week, with Fed Chairman Bernanke expected to provide more detail regarding the options for further near-term monetary easing and stimulus.
In coming weeks, we will also see the Troika (IMF, EC, ECB) deliver its first review of the Greek bailout program, and German legislators vote on potential ECB purchases of Eurozone debt. Both will be important to broad market stability and the outlook for the Euro.
Source: Mirae Asset Financial Group
ETFS Precious Metals Weekly: Germany and US Combine to Boost Gold and Silver to 4-month Highs
August 27, 2012--Gold hits 4-mth high, breaks above 200-dma. Follow-through buying after the release of the latest FOMC minutes, saw gold and silver extend the rally that began on signs of greater European solidarity. Gold reached US$1675, a 4-month high, and a 4% gain for the week.
Silver jumped 9% last week, above $30/oz. for the first time since early May. There were several members of the Federal Reserve Board who indicated the need for additional stimulus, and that is likely to mean some form of quantitative easing, so called QE3.The Eurozone’s dynamics appear to be shifting toward a more collaborative approach, as evidenced by Germany’s nascent indications of support for a potential fresh bond buying program from the ECB. Meanwhile, gold, and other precious metals, like silver, rallied on the back of rising speculation that German officials are becoming more supportive of additional European Central Bank’s stimulus activities, which could help lower borrowing costs for debt burdened Eurozone nations. A key test of the support for a more coordinated approach for Europe is the German parliament's vote on legality of ESM in mid-September. However, recent comments regarding the need for country’s to adhere strictly to austerity commitments indicates that there is a wide margin between rhetoric and concrete actions.
Platinum rallies 10% on labour unrest as contagion threatens. Reports of spillover of the labour activism that began at Lonmin’s Marikana mine to surrounding mines, like Anglo American Platinum, is likely to provide further support to the price of platinum group metals. Platinum surged 9% last week on the potential for further cuts in supply. Already Lonmin’s operations have been shut down for two weeks, and there are suggestions its not just the platinum industry being affected, with Goldfield’s CEO warning of potential problems for other mining companies after a ‘goslow’ from Goldfields workers. It appears very unlikely that while the power struggle between the main mining unions, the National Union of Mineworkers and the upstart Associated Mineworkers and Construction Union, continues that the threat of production cuts will continue to loom over the industry.
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Source: ETF Securities
Week Ahead Economic Overview-Euro area crisis back in focus after summer lull
August 24, 2012--Euro area crisis to move into sharp focus ahead of key events in September
US and Japan both see a host of key economic data next week
As summer draws to a close, euro area policy makers will again take centre stage in the coming weeks, as concerns about Greece look set to keep investors on edge. Comments from EU leaders will be watched closely by all. The forthcoming week features more economic data releases than of late, although a bank holiday for the UK on Monday means the start of the week is relatively quiet.
The United States sees durable goods orders data, surveys of business conditions in the Chicago and Dallas areas, consumer sentiment numbers (from both the Conference Board and University of Michigan) and the S&P Case-Shiller house price index. Extra insight on the health of the US economy will also be provided by weekly jobless claims, personal income and outlays, pending homes sales and retrospectively by an updated estimate of second quarter economic growth.
Source: Markit Economic Research
EPFR Global Fund Data-Gold and High Yield bond funds shine as wait for QE3 green light continues
August 24, 2012--Retail investors steered more money towards gold, high yield debt and municipal bonds as the summer vacation season in the Northern Hemisphere entered the home stretch.
Some also dipped their toes in European and Japanese equity pools, responding to a market rally based on expectations of more quantitative easing in the US and elsewhere that began in late July. The week ending August 22 saw EPFR Global-tracked Europe Equity Funds attract retail inflows for only the second time since mid-2Q11 while retail commitments to Gold & Precious Metals Funds boosted inflows to a 29 week high.
The search for yield remained a key driver for both retail and institutional investors going into the final week of August. High Yield Bond Funds attracted another $1.8 billion of inflows, Municipal and Mortgage Backed Bond Funds extended their current inflow streaks to 51 and 75 straight weeks respectively. Year-to-date flows into Dividend Equity Funds hit $29.6 billion after taking in an additional $380 million of net inflows, while Alternative Funds, which include a wide range of strategies from volatility funds to long/short and currency funds, attracted their biggest weekly inflow in over two years.
Overall, net flows into all EPFR Global-tracked Bond Funds totaled $4.9 billion -- of which 61% flowed into US Bond Funds -- while $847 million was pulled from Equity Funds. There was a third consecutive week of inflows for Money Market Funds ahead of the SEC’s decision not to vote on tougher regulations aimed at cutting the risk of future bailouts.
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Source: EPFR Global
Foreign Regulators Seek Delay in U.S. Swaps Rules
August 24, 2012--European Union and U.K. regulators urged the U.S. to delay new rules for swaps contracts and reconsider how they apply to foreign banks and transactions.
The complaints add to a chorus of concerns, including from Japanese, French and Swiss regulators, that the U.S. is overstepping its jurisdiction. Swaps, contracts in which two parties agree to exchange payments based on fluctuations in interest rates or other benchmarks, were targeted by Congress for greater oversight and transparency after they played a central role in the
Source: Wall Street Journal
ETFS Securities Research Update-Platinum in Focus on Continued South African Labour Activism
August 22, 2012--Introduction
The geographical concentration of platinum and palladium in areas known for their political instability, unreliable infrastructure and labour problems has traditionally exposed production to significant disruptions, subjecting prices and producers’ margins to substantial fluctuations over time.
The recent strike action at South African platinum mines has lifted the platinum price, sending it well past $1,500 to its highest level since early May. Recent events highlight the vulnerability of the PGM industry to labour unrest and raises questions about the sustainability of PGM production in the longer term.
visit www.etfsecurities.com for more info
Source: ETFS Securities
Number of Hedge Funds Investing in Emerging Markets Hits Record High
August 23, 2012--The number of hedge funds investing in emerging markets has hit a new record, increasing by 3.5% since second quarter last year. There are now 1,073 of these funds on the market, according to a report published by specialised analyst Hedge Fund Research (HFR).
Fund providers continue to offer new strategies, expanding their fund range with new offerings focused on currency, fixed income and more sophisticated equity hedge strategies.
Source: Investment Europe
Don't be fooled by short-selling bans
August 23, 2012--When the latest market squall hit the eurozone last month, the governments of Spain and Italy responded with a time-honoured defence; as panic mounted, they banned the short selling of shares in banks, in a desperate bid to shore up confidence.
One month later, it might seem as if this achieved some respite; eurozone stocks have stabilised, as the European Central Bank has pledged fresh support. But is there any evidence that short-selling bans have any long term effect? Or can they potentially make a bad situation worse?
Source: FT.com
Morningstar Target-Date Series Research Paper: 2012 Industry Survey
August 22, 2012--Morningstar's 2012 Target-Date Series Industry Survey is now available.
Key findings of the 2012 report include:
Target-date assets continue to increase at a healthy rate, surpassing most broad asset classes.
Index-based series' assets, though a small percentage of the industry's total assets, increased at a faster rate than actively managed series in 2011.
Industry fees continued to decline. This year's report for the first time includes a comprehensive list of all target-date series glide paths.
view the Target-Date Series Research Paper: 2012 Industry Survey
Source: MorningStar
Global Experts Poll: Economic Confidence Plummets to Lowest Level in Five Quarters
Confidence in the state of the global economy over the next 12 months fell to lowest level in five quarters
Fear of a major economic disruption climbed to 68% from 46% in the previous quarter
Fifth quarterly Global Confidence Index polled 430 experts from business, government, international organizations and academia who are Members of the Forum’s Network of Global Agenda Councils
August 22, 2012--Confidence in the state of the world economy is at its lowest ebb since the World Economic Forum started its Global Confidence Index five quarters ago.
The relative optimism of the previous quarter evaporated against a backdrop of slowing growth in the US and China as well as a lingering eurozone crisis, with 72% of respondents to the poll reporting that they were not confident about the state of the global economy over the next 12 months, up from 37%.
“Despite every effort to ensure economic, social and political stability, we are still just one shock away from everything getting off track again – which points to the need for greater resilience globally,” said Lee Howell, Managing Director at the World Economic Forum, who is responsible for the Forum’s Global Risks 2012 report.
Access the full analysis and results online at http://www.weforum.org/ConfidenceIndex
Source: World Economic Forum