ETFS Precious Metals Weekly:Quantitative easing not fully priced in, but external trigger needed for further gains
October 15, 2012-- Precious metals waiting for an external trigger
South African gold supply constraints keep prices high
Key events to watch this week: European heads of state summit
Precious metals waiting for an external trigger. If history is a guide, we should see further price upside for precious metals following last month’s announcement of a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) by the Fed. Six months after the initial announcements of previous rounds of quantitative easing, the gold price rose on. Since the announcement of QE3, physical gold has risen only 2.3% and physical silver only 2.6%. The likely next trigger for precious metals to move higher is a formal request by Spain for a bailout. This would open the way for the ECB to buy Spanish sovereign bonds in the secondary market on a potentially “unlimited” basis, making investors think twice before shorting Spanish bonds and taking immediate pressure off peripheral European sovereign markets.
It also would likely improve depositor confidence in Spanish banks and help reduce capital flight. Such developments would likely benefit the Euro (weaken the US dollar) and boost risk appetite. Precious metals, particularly the higher beta “white” metals, will likely perform well under such a scenario. In the meantime, since it is difficult to predict when Spain will ask for a bailout, markets remain on edge – particularly as net speculative futures longs are looking stretched for some of the metals and prone to short-term correction. Therefore, while the latest QE appears not to have been fully priced in, an external trigger, such as a Spain bailout request may be necessary to driven the next leg of the bull market.
South African gold supply constraints keep prices high. South African gold miners rejected the industry’s latest wage offer last Thursday, prolonging strike action and constraining gold supply from one of the world’s largest producing countries. The strike action is holding back an estimated 32,000 ounces of gold a week of production at Anglo Gold Ashanti and 2,300 ounces a day at Gold Fields.
Approximately 41% of South Africa’s gold output is idled. The Chamber of Mines which is leading discussion with unions is set to meet again today. If mining companies are forced to lay off illegally striking employees, supply will be hampered for some time to come. Although gold prices fell during the week, supply concerns are a supporting factor helping to keep gold prices above $1765/oz.
Key events to watch this week: European heads of state summit.
visit www.etfsecurities.com for more info
Source: ETF Securities
World Federation of Exchanges elects Andreas Preuss as new Chairman
October 15, 2012--At its annual meeting in Taipei, the General Assembly of the World Federation of Exchanges (WFE) has elected Andreas Preuss, Deputy CEO of Deutsche Börse AG and Eurex CEO, to be its new Chairman.
Preuss will lead the global exchange association for the next two years in addition to his responsibilities at Deutsche Börse Group.
Ronald Arculli, Director Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, has headed the federation for the past two years. The General Assembly has also appointed a CEO for the first time. Hüseyin Erkan is taking on this role.
Source: Eurex
HKEx CEO: LME Buy Will Bring New Commodity Products.
October 15, 2012--Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd.'s deal to buy the London Metal Exchange will lead to new commodity offerings and provide the best opportunity for exposure to Chinese growth and liberalization, Hong Kong Exchanges, Chief Executive Charles Li said Monday.
The London Metal Exchange is primarily a marketplace for base metals such as copper and aluminum. The Hong Kong Exchanges group, or HKEx, is one of the world’s largest exchange owners by market capitalization.
Source: Wall Street Journal
Dalian Commodity Exchange and NASDAQ OMX Sign MOU
New Partnership Will Build Cooperative Opportunities in China and Globally
October 15, 2012--Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) and The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc. (Nasdaq:NDAQ) (Nasdaq OMX) signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on October 15 in Taipei, with an aim to seek new business opportunities on a global scale as well as substantial business exchanges and cooperation in more fields.
DCE President & CEO Liu Xingqiang and NASDAQ OMX Vice Chairman Sandy Frucher were present at the signing ceremony.
Liu said: "Through exchanges and cooperation with NASDAQ OMX, DCE will be able to keep up with the latest trends of technology innovation in the global leading markets. Signing of the MOU has laid a solid foundation for further cooperation with NASDAQ OMX. This new partnership for DCE will establish an in-depth and sustained strategic partnership with NASDAQ OMX to make new progress in technology innovation and opening-up."
Source: NASDAQ OMX
iShares to Launch Core Series ETFs for Long-Term Buy-and-Hold Investors
October 15, 2012--BlackRock, Inc. (NYSE: BLK) announced today that its iShares Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) business, the world's largest manager of ETFs1, is launching a series of initiatives to enhance the value proposition it delivers to investors both in the U.S. and globally. These initiatives include:
Major New Brand Initiative Highlights Why Professional Investors Choose iShares for their ETFs
iShares and BlackRock Integrate U.S. Retail Sales Teams, Greatly Expanding iShares Reach
Creating the iShares Core Series, a suite of 10 U.S. ETFs designed for the needs of long-term, buy-and-hold investors that combines competitive pricing with diversified, tax-efficient products using premier index providers.
Launching a major, multi-pronged global brand initiative which recognizes that every investor is unique and communicates the advantages of using the products that eight out of 10 large professional investors choose for their ETFs.2
Integrating the iShares and BlackRock U.S. retail sales teams, creating the largest retail field force in the U.S. asset management industry, to offer financial advisors and distribution partners a fully integrated combination of index and active products and solutions for today's investors.
Source: BlackRock
FIF September 2012 Market Share and Market Dynamics Executive Summary
October 13, 2012--The September 2012 FIF Market Share and Market Dynamics Reports-Executive Summary is now available.
Source: Financial Information Forum (FIF)
CME seeks approval to offer currency futures in Europe
October 12, 2012--CME Group Inc, the biggest operator of U.S. futures exchanges, on Thursday filed an application with London financial authorities to launch a European market next year offering currency futures.
CME is looking to expand internationally as regulators worldwide push more of the vast over-the-counter derivatives market onto regulated exchanges.
Source: Reuters
Exploring the Dynamics of Global Liquidity
October 11, 2012--Summary: This paper explores the concept of global liquidity, its measurement and macro-financial importance.
We construct two sets of indicators for global liquidity: a quantity series distinguishing between core and noncore liabilities of financial intermediatires and a corresponding price series. Using price and quantity indicators simultaneously, it is possible to distinguish between shocks to the supply and demand for global liquidity, and isolate their impact on the economy. Our results confirm that global liquidity conditions matter for economic and financial stability, and points to indicators whose regular monitoring could be valuable to policymakers.
view the IMF Working paper-Exploring the Dynamics of Global Liquidity
Source: IMF
Dealing with domestic systemically important banks: framework issued by the Basel Committee
October 11, 2012--The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision issued today its Framework for dealing with domestic systemically important banks.
In November 2011, the Basel Committee issued final rules for global systemically important banks (G-SIBs). The G20 leaders endorsed these rules at their November 2011 meeting and asked the Basel Committee and the Financial Stability Board to work on extending the framework to domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs).
While not all D-SIBs are significant from a global perspective, the failure of such a bank could have a much greater impact on its domestic financial system and economy than that of a non-systemic institution. Some of these banks may have cross-border externalities, even if the effects are not global in nature.
view the A framework for dealing with domestic systemically important banks
Source: BIS
New report on China's climate action + interactive map of world action
October 11, 2012--China has long been perceived as a laggard on climate action, and used as scapegoat by other countries, like Australia, to delay action. But this argument is increasingly difficult, if not impossible, to make given China's recent policies.
China will soon have the world’s second largest carbon trading scheme and is aggressively pursuing other climate and clean energy policies. These are key findings outlined in a report released today, commissioned by The Climate Institute from Climate Bridge, a multi-national project developer with years of experience in emission reduction projects in China.
view the report-Carbon Markets and Climate Policy in China
Source: The Climate Institute