IMF Working paper-The Rising Resilience of Emerging Market and Developing Economies
December 20, 2012--Summary: Economic performance in many emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) improved substantially over the past twenty years.
The past decade was particularly good—for the first time EMDEs spent more time in expansion and had smaller downturns thanadvanced economies. In this paper we document the history of EMDEs’ resilience over the past sixty years, and investigate what factors have been associated with it. We find that their improved performance in recent years is accounted for by both good policies and a lowerincidence of external and domestic shocks—better policies account for about three-fifths of their improved resilience, while less frequent shocks account for the remainder.
view the IMF Working paper-The Rising Resilience of Emerging Market and Developing Economies
Source: IMF
World Bank Releases International Debt Statistics 2013
New Publication Has Data on Capital Flows through 2011
December 20, 2012--Net external debt inflows and aggregate net capital inflows (debt and equity) to developing countries fell in 2011, driven by a sharp contraction in net inflows from official creditors and a collapse of portfolio equity flows, according to International Debt Statistics 2013, released today.
The downturn was partially offset by inflows from commercial banks, sustained access to international bond markets and a rise in foreign direct investment.
“These international debt statistics are a vital input for experts working to improve the management of capital flows around the world and having the data open to all is a welcome development,” says Ibrahim Levent, Senior Information Officer in the Bank’s Data Group and part of the team that produced the report.
view the International Debt Statistics 2013
Source: World Bank
ICE to Buy NYSE for $8.2 Billion, Ending Era of Independence
December 20, 2012--The Intercontinental Exchange announced on Thursday plans to buy the NYSE Euronext in a transaction valued at approximately $8.2 billion, bringing to an end the Big Board's storied era of more than two centuries as an independent institution.
The ICE said it intends to offer $33.12 per share, representing a premium of about 37 percent over NYSE Euronext's Wednesday closing price. CNBC first reported on merger talks between the two companies after the closing bell on Wednesday.
In early trading, the NYSE's stock soared by 31 percent in heavy volume that was more than 12 times its normal average.
Source: CNBC
New European Regulations Will Put Compliance Pressures on U.S. Alternative Fund Managers to Plan Ahead
Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive Will Have Significant Impact on Fundraising Activities, Operations and Business Models: KPMG International Survey
December 19, 2012--With the compliance deadline for one of the most complex regulatory reform agendas ever introduced into the asset management industry only seven months away, a KPMG International survey of more than 70 alternative investment fund managers reveals that nearly half have not taken any concrete steps to analyze the impact the Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive (AIFMD) will have on their businesses, or to make changes to their operations.
Today, the European Commission adopted the implementing rules for the Directive, which will now be subject to a three- or six-month scrutiny period by the European Parliament and the Council, and will enter into force, provided that neither co-legislator objects, at the end of this period.
The Directive may have long-term implications for investment managers in the U.S. and globally, who are looking to raise capital in Europe.
Source: KPMG International
FTSE Publishes new Research Paper- Emerging Markets: Crossing the Rubicon
December 19, 2012--The surging growth of many emerging markets is changing the structure of the global economy. The trend is accelerating such that the term 'emerging' will increasingly cease to apply to many countries and a shift in categorization will be required.
A powerful combination of macro trends is driving the long term rise of EMs. These include the emergence of a vast new middle class, mainly in Asia, of around 4 billion people by 2030; rapid urbanization; the gradual move by many EMs from export-led to consumption-led growth; and an emphasis on the production of higher value-added products.
view the FTSE Research Paper-Emerging Markets: Crossing the Rubicon
Source: FTSE
Russell Eurozone Index Reflected a 20.1%YTD 2012 Gain as of 12/17 as Russell Investments Predicts Continued "Downward Spiral" in 2013 in Southern Europe
December 19, 2012--The Russell Eurozone Index reflected a return of 20.1% year-to-date as of December 17th, 2012. Northern European countries enjoyed the strongest gains within the Eurozone Index, with Belgium (37.2%)*, Austria (35.4%) and Germany (31.0%) leading the way year-to-date as of 12/17.
In Southern Europe, Greece (19.9%) led the way year-to-date as of 12/17, while Spain (1.5%) had the lowest year-to-date return within the Index.
In Russell Investments' recently released 2013 Annual Global Outlook, its team of global investment strategists highlight core expectations for capital markets along with their outlook for the central investment issues in 2013. The outlook asserts that solving the eurocrisis will require a different policy mix than the one currently in place.
view the 2012 Russell Annual Global Outlook
Source: Russell Investments
BNY Mellon Reshuffles Senior Management
December 18, 2012--The Bank of New York Mellon, the world's largest custodian bank, is consolidating its asset servicing, corporate trust, depositary receipts, global markets, global collateral services, broker-dealer services and clearing subsidiary Pershing under a single umbrella to be overseen by the bank's vice chairman Timothy Keaney.
The recently announced reorganization, with several executive changes, is clearly aimed at ensuring the bank maximizes cross-marketing opportunities, say securities analysts. It comes at a time when custodian banks are struggling with lower margins and are trying to win as much business as possible from their existing client base.
Source: Globalcustody.net
Macro Matters-Emerging Market Pushes for Local Drivers
December 18, 2012--China-Regulatory moves encourage investors
Both Hong Kong and China markets gained after speculation of a new state-backed buying in mainland markets and business survey results which raised hopes for a stronger recovery in China.
Last week the market remained volatile. Early last week, shares dropped amid: 1) uncertainty ahead of a crucial economic meeting to be held at weekend; and 2) slower-than-expected lending growth in November.
India-Investors remained cautious ahead of inflation report
Last week, Indian market marginally retreated despite better-than-expected inflation data and additional reforms announced by the government.
Investors were cautious as they awaited the inflation data. Trading volume remained relatively low while investors took profit from the previous week gains. Also weak cues from Europe weighed down on the market.
Economic data was mixed. Industrial output in October grew at its fastest pace in 16 months at 8.2%. Wholesale Price Index also marginally declined in November to 7.24% backed by lower fuel inflation.
Brazil-Data point towards an economic rebound.
In Brazil, equities are out of favor with both local and global investors as a result of disappointing economic growth and unpredictable government policy.
Key central banks continue to add liquidity and ease monetary policy in order to support the growth recovery, with Brazilian and Chinese economic data pointing towards a rebound in activity sustained through Q4’12 into Q1’13.
Brazil’s Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br) posted another positive print in October (+0.4% month-on-month) on a seasonally adjusted basis, following September’s -0.5% contraction.
Russia-Russia underperformed emerging markets.
Global focus remains on Capitol Hill and the ability of US politicians to arrive at a bipartisan deal to avert the so-called Fiscal Cliff as tax reductions and spending programs expire in January. Until clarity is achieved, investors remain wary of allocating new capital ahead of what is likely a binary outcome – a positive scenario whereby a deal is reached and the US economy sustains its gradual recovery, or a major negative impact on growth is delivered, pushing the US into a brief but sharp recession.
The US Fed last week took the unprecedented step of explicitly linking interest rates to specific unemployment and inflation targets, stating that it is to keep rates at exceptionally low levels as long as the jobless rate remains above 6.5% and inflation below 2.5%.
The FOMC also extended its purchases of $40bn/month in mortgage bonds and raised its monthly purchases of long-term treasuries to $45bn, though highlighting the potential growth risks of the Fiscal Cliff.
Source: Mirae Asset Financial Group
South East Europe Economy Shrinks in 2012, Faces Risks in 2013
More intensive policy reforms needed
December 18, 2012--The combined economies of the six South East European countries will shrink by 0.6 percent in 2012, and face formidable risks going into 2013 with expected growth of 1.6 percent, says a new World Bank South East Europe Regular Economic Report No.3 published today.
The South East Europe Regular Economic Report (SEE RER) covers six countries (SEE6) - Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia - and foresees that the road to sustained recovery will be arduous with sluggish growth in 2013 at best, and with significant risks. Among the clouds on the horizon for 2013 are the risks to recovery of the Eurozone and high commodity prices––risks to which all the SEE6 countries are highly vulnerable.
Source: World Bank
BlackRock Investment Institute-ETP Landscape 2012 Global Handbook
December 18, 2012--The BlackRock Investment Institute-ETP Landscape 2012 Global Handbook is now available.
The 2012 Global Handbook is a comprehensive directory of 4,748 Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) listed globally.
Source: BlackRock Investment Institute