Russell Eurozone Index Reflected a 20.1%YTD 2012 Gain as of 12/17 as Russell Investments Predicts Continued "Downward Spiral" in 2013 in Southern Europe
December 19, 2012--The Russell Eurozone Index reflected a return of 20.1% year-to-date as of December 17th, 2012. Northern European countries enjoyed the strongest gains within the Eurozone Index, with Belgium (37.2%)*, Austria (35.4%) and Germany (31.0%) leading the way year-to-date as of 12/17.
In Southern Europe, Greece (19.9%) led the way year-to-date as of 12/17, while Spain (1.5%) had the lowest year-to-date return within the Index.
In Russell Investments' recently released 2013 Annual Global Outlook, its team of global investment strategists highlight core expectations for capital markets along with their outlook for the central investment issues in 2013. The outlook asserts that solving the eurocrisis will require a different policy mix than the one currently in place.
view the 2012 Russell Annual Global Outlook
Source: Russell Investments
BNY Mellon Reshuffles Senior Management
December 18, 2012--The Bank of New York Mellon, the world's largest custodian bank, is consolidating its asset servicing, corporate trust, depositary receipts, global markets, global collateral services, broker-dealer services and clearing subsidiary Pershing under a single umbrella to be overseen by the bank's vice chairman Timothy Keaney.
The recently announced reorganization, with several executive changes, is clearly aimed at ensuring the bank maximizes cross-marketing opportunities, say securities analysts. It comes at a time when custodian banks are struggling with lower margins and are trying to win as much business as possible from their existing client base.
Source: Globalcustody.net
Macro Matters-Emerging Market Pushes for Local Drivers
December 18, 2012--China-Regulatory moves encourage investors
Both Hong Kong and China markets gained after speculation of a new state-backed buying in mainland markets and business survey results which raised hopes for a stronger recovery in China.
Last week the market remained volatile. Early last week, shares dropped amid: 1) uncertainty ahead of a crucial economic meeting to be held at weekend; and 2) slower-than-expected lending growth in November.
India-Investors remained cautious ahead of inflation report
Last week, Indian market marginally retreated despite better-than-expected inflation data and additional reforms announced by the government.
Investors were cautious as they awaited the inflation data. Trading volume remained relatively low while investors took profit from the previous week gains. Also weak cues from Europe weighed down on the market.
Economic data was mixed. Industrial output in October grew at its fastest pace in 16 months at 8.2%. Wholesale Price Index also marginally declined in November to 7.24% backed by lower fuel inflation.
Brazil-Data point towards an economic rebound.
In Brazil, equities are out of favor with both local and global investors as a result of disappointing economic growth and unpredictable government policy.
Key central banks continue to add liquidity and ease monetary policy in order to support the growth recovery, with Brazilian and Chinese economic data pointing towards a rebound in activity sustained through Q4’12 into Q1’13.
Brazil’s Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br) posted another positive print in October (+0.4% month-on-month) on a seasonally adjusted basis, following September’s -0.5% contraction.
Russia-Russia underperformed emerging markets.
Global focus remains on Capitol Hill and the ability of US politicians to arrive at a bipartisan deal to avert the so-called Fiscal Cliff as tax reductions and spending programs expire in January. Until clarity is achieved, investors remain wary of allocating new capital ahead of what is likely a binary outcome – a positive scenario whereby a deal is reached and the US economy sustains its gradual recovery, or a major negative impact on growth is delivered, pushing the US into a brief but sharp recession.
The US Fed last week took the unprecedented step of explicitly linking interest rates to specific unemployment and inflation targets, stating that it is to keep rates at exceptionally low levels as long as the jobless rate remains above 6.5% and inflation below 2.5%.
The FOMC also extended its purchases of $40bn/month in mortgage bonds and raised its monthly purchases of long-term treasuries to $45bn, though highlighting the potential growth risks of the Fiscal Cliff.
Source: Mirae Asset Financial Group
South East Europe Economy Shrinks in 2012, Faces Risks in 2013
More intensive policy reforms needed
December 18, 2012--The combined economies of the six South East European countries will shrink by 0.6 percent in 2012, and face formidable risks going into 2013 with expected growth of 1.6 percent, says a new World Bank South East Europe Regular Economic Report No.3 published today.
The South East Europe Regular Economic Report (SEE RER) covers six countries (SEE6) - Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia - and foresees that the road to sustained recovery will be arduous with sluggish growth in 2013 at best, and with significant risks. Among the clouds on the horizon for 2013 are the risks to recovery of the Eurozone and high commodity prices––risks to which all the SEE6 countries are highly vulnerable.
Source: World Bank
BlackRock Investment Institute-ETP Landscape 2012 Global Handbook
December 18, 2012--The BlackRock Investment Institute-ETP Landscape 2012 Global Handbook is now available.
The 2012 Global Handbook is a comprehensive directory of 4,748 Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) listed globally.
Source: BlackRock Investment Institute
IMF Working paper-Income and Democracy: Lipset's Law Revisited
December 17, 2012--Summary: We revisit Lipset's law, which posits a positive and significant relationship between income and democracy.
Using dynamic and heterogeneous panel data estimation techniques, we find a significant and negative relationship between income and democracy: higher/lower incomes per capita hinder/trigger democratization. Decomposing overall income per capita into its resource and non-resource components, we find that the coefficient on the latter is positive and significant while that on the former is significant but negative, indicating that the role of resource income is central to the result.
view the IMF Working paper-Income and Democracy: Lipset's Law Revisited
Source: IMF
Coal's share of global energy mix to continue rising, with coal closing in on oil as world's top energy source by 2017
IEA's Medium Term Coal Market Report sees coal demand increasing in nearly every region of the world except US, where shale gas is displacing coal
December 17, 2012-Coal's share of the global energy mix continues to rise, and by 2017 coal will come close to surpassing oil as the world's top energy source, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said today as it released its annual Medium-Term Coal Market Report (MCMR).
Although the growth rate of coal slows from the breakneck pace of the last decade, global coal consumption by 2017 stands at 4.32 billion tonnes of oil equivalent (btoe), versus around 4.40 btoe for oil, based on IEA medium-term projections. The IEA expects that coal demand will increase in every region of the world except in the United States, where coal is being pushed out by natural gas.
Source: International Energy Agency (IEA)
Component Changes Made To STOXX Select Dividend Indices
December 17, 2012--STOXX Limited, the market-moving provider of innovative, tradable and global index concepts, today announced component changes in the STOXX Global Select Dividend 100
Index, STOXX Europe Select Dividend 30 Index and EURO STOXX Select Dividend 30 Index.
Due to a cancellation of its dividend payments, KPN (Netherlands, Telecommunications, KPN.AS) is no longer eligible to be included in the index.
The following component changes to the STOXX Global Select Dividend 100 Index, STOXX Europe Select Dividend 30 Index and EURO STOXX Select Dividend 30 Index will be effective with the open of markets on December 20, 2012.
Source: STOXX
Quarterly Changes to the NASDAQ Q-50 Index
December 17, 2012--The NASDAQ OMX Group, Inc. (Nasdaq:NDAQ), parent of the world's first electronic stock market and a leading index provider' today announced the results of the quarterly re-ranking of the NASDAQ Q-50 IndexSM(Nasdaq:NXTQ), which will become effective prior to market open on Monday, December 24, 2012.
The following fourteen securities will be added to the Index: ARM Holdings, Plc (Nasdaq:ARMH), Electronic Arts Inc. (Nasdaq:EA), Flextronics International Ltd. (Nasdaq:FLEX), Lam Research Corporation (Nasdaq:LRCX), Medivation, Inc. (Nasdaq:MDVN), MercadoLibre, Inc. (Nasdaq:MELI), Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (Nasdaq:MRVL), Nordson Corporation (Nasdaq:NDSN), Netflix, Inc. (Nasdaq:NFLX), Patterson Companies, Inc. (Nasdaq:PDCO), Research In Motion Limited (Nasdaq:RIMM), Ryanair Holdings Plc (Nasdaq:RYAAY), VeriSign, Inc. (Nasdaq:VRSN) and Yandex N.V. (Nasdaq:YNDX).
Source: NASDAQ OMX
ETF Securities-ETFS Precious Metals Weekly-'Fiscal Cliff' Discussions Dominate Precious Metals in Final Days of 2012
December 17, 2012--The US 'fiscal cliff' and Europe growth risks are the dark clouds over an otherwise improving outlook for the "industrial" precious metals. US industrial production rose 1.1% m-o-m in November, far higher than the 0.3% consensus expectation and is likely to maintain that momentum judging by the flash December Markit manufacturing PMI which rose to an 8-month high.
The flash HSBC Chinese manufacturing PMI rose to a 14-month high of 50.9, confirming the economic recovery is gaining momentum in China as well. Normally, the more cyclical precious metals such as silver, platinum and palladium should perform well in this environment. However, businesses remain reluctant to invest because of the uncertainty surrounding potential automatic tax rises and benefit cuts if the US Congress doesn't agree to a new fiscal program. With minimal economic data to be released in the final weeks of the year, the markets will be particularly sensitive to outcomes from the budget negotiations. Holdings of gold ETPs extended their all-time highs to $84.6bn as investors continue to hedge against worst-case outcomes from fiscal cliff discussions.
FOMC announces extension of QE3 and confirms its commitment to lower unemployment. The Fed confirmed that it will be replacing "operation twist" with $45b of monthly purchases of longer-dated treasuries from January 2013 (in addition to the $40bn of MBS currently purchased every month). Although the move was already largely priced into precious metals, the Fed's actions are significant as they will see balance sheet expansion (whereas operation twist simply changed the maturity of existing assets). Importantly, the Fed has made its ultra-accommodative policy conditional on unemployment remaining above 6.5% and inflation projections remaining no more than 2.5%, providing substantial leeway for continued expansionary policy.
Visit www.etfsecurities.com for more info.
Source: ETF Securities