Global ETF News Older than One Year
The impact of COVID-19 on directions and structure of international trade
September 23, 2021--2020 marked some of the largest reductions in trade and output volumes since WWII. Focusing on the COVID-19 pandemic and using the latest monthly and quarterly data on international trade of selected countries and products, this paper documents key shifts in geographical direction and product composition of international trade in 2020.
Trade in services declined by more than twice as much as trade in goods and its recovery has also been slower. While the size of the drop in global trade relative to the drop in output in 2020 was smaller than during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), this was not related to the overall size of the trade impacts in 2020, but rather reflects the significant heterogeneity of trade and production impacts across specific goods, services and trade partners from COVID-19. Trade in several types of goods plummeted, while that in others increased markedly. As a result, the variation in trade impacts across the different product categories in 2020 was not only larger than during the GFC, but also larger than in any other year during the past two decades. The product structure of countries’ goods trade also changed significantly in 2020, indicating large adjustments. While some international supply chains came under pressure in early months of the pandemic, the data also show that supply chains were instrumental in the resumption of economic activity.
Source: OECD
When Do Investors Freak Out?: Machine Learning Predictions of Panic Selling
September 22, 2021-- Abstract
Despite standard investment advice to the contrary, individuals often engage in panic selling, liquidating significant portions of their risky assets in response to large losses.Using a novel dataset of 653,455 individual brokerage accounts belonging to 298,556 households, we document the frequency, timing, and duration of panic sales, which we define as a decline of 90% of a household account's equity assets over the course of one month, of which 50% or more is due to trades.
We find that a disproportionate numberof households make panic sales when there are sharp market downturns, a phenomenonwe call "freaking out".
Source: ssrn.com
IMF-Net Zero by 2050-The IEA outlines a path to decarbonize the energy sector in three decades
September 21, 2021--Following a raft of net zero target announcements in 2020 and 2021, scrutiny is mounting about the plans to get there. Some countries have detailed outlines of how they will reduce their emissions to net zero, but many still do not.
Thanks to countries with detailed plans we have an idea of the task at hand to decarbonize at the country level, but it is hard to imagine what it will take on a global basis. This is especially true given that the current global pledges won’t get us to net zero in time to limit the temperature rise to 1.5°C.
view the IEA Net Zero by 2050A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector
Source: IMF
Evergrande crisis entangles ETF investors as fallout spreads
September 21, 2021--Western investors are getting their fingers burnt after piling into exchange traded funds holding China Evergrande debt in an increasingly desperate hunt for yield.
The world's most indebted property developer is battling a serious liquidity ....
Source: ft.com
Global economic recovery continues but remains uneven, says OECD
September 21, 2021--The global economy is growing far more strongly than anticipated a year ago but the recovery remains uneven, exposing both advanced and emerging markets to a range of risks, according to the OECD's latest Interim Economic Outlook.
The OECD says extraordinary support from governments and central banks helped avoid the worst once the COVID-19 pandemic hit.
With the vaccine roll-out continuing and a gradual resumption of economic activity underway, the OECD projects strong global growth of 5.7% this year and 4.5% in 2022, little changed from its May 2021 Outlook of 5.8% and 4.4% respectively.
Countries are emerging from the crisis with different challenges, often reflecting their pre-COVID 19 strengths and weaknesses, and their policy approaches during the pandemic. Even in the countries where output or employment have recovered to their pre-pandemic levels, the recovery is incomplete, with jobs and incomes still short of the levels expected before the pandemic.
view the OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report Keeping the Recovery on Track September 2021
Source: OECD
Winthrop Capital Management-The Calm before the Storm
September 21, 2021--The current period feels like we are in the proverbial "calm before the storm." The markets are quiet at elevated valuations, trading in a tight range. Bond yields are trending lower. The economic recovery appears to be running out of gas. Congress is trying to address the next round of fiscal stimulus wrapped up in a $3.5 trillion infrastructure bill. In addition, the Federal Reserve has begun its narrative around tapering this year, its process to withdraw monetary stimulus from the markets.
Over the past 18 months, the financial news has been dominated by the Covid-19 virus, including the massive push to control the spread, the rush to bring vaccines, and economic stimulus needed to support the crippled economy. Despite great progress, we have entered into a new stage of trying to reopen the markets and live with the Covid variant. We are in a cautiously optimistic period of getting kids back into the classroom, finding methods to gather the public for sporting events and entertainment, and encouraging workers to re-enter the labor market. We expect the equity market is vulnerable to negative news.
Source: winthropcm.com
The Economics of Social Unrest-Economic analysis can shine a revealing light on the causes and consequences of social unrest
September 21, 2021--The past decade was marked by a series of high-profile social protests-the Arab Spring, Black Lives Matter, the Gilets Jaunes, and Occupy Wall Street, to name just a few. Yet while there has been a lot of soul-searching about their causes and consequences, and even though many commentators have pointed their fingers at economic forces, the economics profession has been relatively slow to respond. Indeed, rigorous quantitative economic analysis of social unrest is scant, with evidence limited to isolated cases until recently.
However, a new body of IMF staff research is filling this gap by analyzing the risks and economic costs of social unrest.
Measuring unrest
A key challenge when researching social unrest-defined as protests, riots, and other forms of civil disorder and conflict-is identifying when such events have occurred. Although sources of information are available, many are sporadic or are inconsistent in their coverage.
Source: IMF
BIS-An inflation process in flux: BIS Quarterly Review
September 20, 2021--New study shows that price changes in narrowly defined sectors account for most of the fluctuations in consumer price inflation, indicating that the recent rise in inflation is likely to be transitory.
The study also finds that in an environment of sector-specific price changes, monetary policy is limited in its ability to steer inflation within tight ranges, putting a premium on flexibility in pursuing inflation targets.
Financial markets sent mixed signals in the period under review, with some developments pointing to an upbeat outlook while others indicated unease.
In a regime of low and stable inflation, most of the fluctuations in headline inflation are due to price swings in finely defined expenditure categories rather than to generalised price movements, according to a new study released today in the Quarterly Review of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). These changes tend to have only a transitory impact of inflation, which is thus more likely to remain range-bound.
Source: BIS
Climate change ETFs found to be undermining war on global warming
September 20, 2021--Academic research shows the funds also starve sectors of capital to invest in transition to cleaner energy
Climate-focused investment funds are undermining the fight against global warming by routinely engaging in greenwashing, academic research has claimed.
Passive exchange traded funds tracking "low carbon", "climate change" or "Paris-aligned" indices allocate little of their money to the greenest companies and habitually increase the weighting of companies whose environmental performance is deteriorating.
Source: ft.com
To Safeguard Global Financial Stability, Boost the Resilience of Investment Funds
September 17, 2021--Our brush last year with one of the biggest economic shocks of our lifetimes revealed some fundamental vulnerabilities that could affect global financial stability. Caught up in the financial market turmoil generated by risk averse investors, many investment funds were heavily affected by the "dash-for-cash" that extended across borders-and which triggered significant outflows from risky assets and from emerging and developing economies.
As this happened, and investor capital flowed out of money market and open-end mutual funds, asset managers were forced to fire-sell these assets, which accelerated the drying up of liquidity and the drop in market value of key assets.
Source: IMF
