IMF Working paper-Regionalization vs. Globalization
January 22, 2013--Summary: Abstract: Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles.
Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the global, regional, and country-specific factors in explaining business cycles in a large sample of countries and regions over the period 1960–2010. We find that, since the mid-1980s, the importance of regional factors has increased markedly in explaining business cycles especially in regions that experienced a sharp growth in intra-regional trade and financial flows. By contrast, the relative importance of the global factor has declined over the same period. In short, the recent era of globalization has witnessed the emergence of regional business cycles.
view the IMF Working paper-Regionalization vs. Globalization
Source: IMF
S&P Capital IQ Teams with Clearwater Analytics to Provide Fixed Income Pricing and Reference Data to Financial Professionals Globally Through Secure, Web-Based Investment Accounting Solution
January 22, 2013--Recognizing the expanding information needs of corporations, insurance companies, and asset management firms for timely data to manage their portfolios, S&P Capital IQ, a leading provider of multi-asset class data, research and analytics, today announced an agreement with Clearwater Analytics to provide a broad range of fixed income evaluated pricing and terms and conditions data
to industry professionals through Clearwater's global investment accounting and reporting platform. The expanded service will be available beginning February 20, 2013.
"Expanding the availability and delivery speed of pricing and descriptive data from S&P Capital IQ through trusted platforms like Clearwater's is yet another way we are working to improve services to financial professionals who manage investments," said Rui Carvalho, Managing Director, S&P Capital IQ. "We are providing access to pricing and descriptive data on over 3 million fixed income securities. S&P Capital IQ Valuations provides investors with a cross-market approach to assessing risk and value in portfolios, offering independent valuations across asset classes for global fixed income securities and hard-to-price instruments using both market and model approaches".
Source: S&P Capital IQ
IOSCO Publishes Suitability Requirements for Distribution of Complex Financial Products
January 21, 2013--The International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) today published a final report on Suitability Requirements with respect to the Distribution of Complex Financial Products, which sets out principles relating to the distribution by intermediaries of complex financial products to retail and non-retail customers.
The report, which forms part of IOSCO’s ongoing drive to promote customer protection, introduces nine principles that cover the following areas related to the distribution of complex financial products by intermediaries:
Classification of customers
General duties irrespective of customer classification
Disclosure requirements
Protection of customers for non-advisory services
Source: IOSCO
ETF Securities- Precious Metals Weekly: Platinum Price Surpasses Gold on South African Disruptions
January 21, 2013--The platinum price temporarily surpassed the gold price for the first time in 10 months on Amplats' platinum operations review. A mplats announced a 400koz estimated reduction in production last week deriving from mine closures in an attempt to contain its rising costs.
The potential loss in production is equivalent to 7% of total mine supply in 2012 and is expected to tighten result in further tightness in the platinum market. Supply side issues in South Africa are likely to remain the main platinum price driver in 2013. Labour disruptions and production rationalisation are likely to continue to tighten the supply-demand balance, as more companies follow Amplats' example. With nearly 80% of the world's supply of platinum mined in South Africa, supply disruptions and political hurdles in the country can significantly impact the price.
Thomson Reuters GFMS remains bullish gold in 2013, forecasting gold to average an all-time high over the first half of the year. The consultancy company published its latest Gold Survey 2012 update last week, with predictions for the first half of 2013. Despite the sell-off in the last quarter of 2012, Thomson Reuters GFMS expects that extremely accommodative monetary stance from the US Fed and other major central banks and continued sovereign debt concerns will remain in place and will return to the fore this year. While the market appears concerned the Fed may prematurely end its QE program in 2013, other central banks are flooding financial markets with cheap liquidity including the ECB, the Bank of Japan, and potentially more from the Bank of England with a new governor in 2013.
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Source: ETF Securities
Global Experts Poll: Economic Confidence Improves in First Quarter, Fears Subside
Economic confidence index ticks up to 0.43 from 0.38 last quarter, closer to optimistic territory of over 0.5
Percentage fearing a major economic disruption for year ahead falls to 48% from 53% last quarter
Seventh quarterly Global Confidence Index polled 390 experts from business, government, international organizations and academia who are members of the Forum’s Network of Global Agenda Councils
January 21, 2013--Confidence in the state of the world economy recovered somewhat in the first quarter of 2013, according to a World Economic Forum poll of 390 experts.
The Economic Confidence Index rose to 0.43 from 0.38 on a scale from 0 to 1, getting closer to optimistic territory amid some positive signs from the Eurozone and a sense that the worst fears for the US “fiscal cliff” debt crisis had been allayed. Regionally, the improvement in confidence was most marked in North America.
“The first Economic Confidence Index result of 2013 gives us some cause for optimism, but the figure is still in negative territory overall. We still need dynamic leadership to drive the economy ahead and overcome challenges,” said Martina Gmür, Senior Director of the Forum’s Network of Global Agenda Councils.
view results-Global Confidence Index
Source: WEF
The BRICs and beyond: prospects, challenges and opportunities
January 18, 2013--This is the latest in a series of reports that seeks to update projections of potential growth in GDP in leading economies over the period to 2050.
The original PwC ‘World in 2050’ study in 2006 covered the 17 largest economies: the G7 (France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, the US and Canada) plus Spain, Australia and South Korea; and the E7 (Brazil, Russia, India, China, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey).
The extended 2013 study – titled World in 2050 The BRICs and Beyond: Prospects, challenges and opportunities - also includes Vietnam, Nigeria, South Africa, Malaysia, Poland, Saudi Arabia and Argentina.
view the PWC report-World in 2050 The BRICs and beyond: prospects, challenges and opportunities
Source: PwC
Geographic Exposure: Russell Developed Europe Large Cap Emerging Markets GeoExposure Index Outperformed Its Parent Russell Developed Europe Large Cap Index for YTD, 3 & 4 Years Ended January 16th
January 18, 2013--The Russell Developed Europe Large Cap Emerging Markets GeoExposure Index, designed to track the performance of companies within its parent index the Russell Developed Europe Large Cap Index with significant revenue exposure to emerging markets, outperformed its parent index by 0.9% year-to-date, 1.7% (annualized) for three years and 5.5% (annualized) for four years ended January 16th (index history inception is July 2008).
"The performance of the Russell Developed Europe Large Cap EM GeoExposure Index relative to the European and emerging markets indices illustrates the positioning of gaining exposure to emerging markets through the stocks of developed market companies. If emerging markets are performing comparatively well, the increased exposure to companies which derive a significant portion of their revenue from emerging markets may lead the GeoExposure index to outperform its parent index, in this case the Russell Developed Europe Large Cap Index. We would expect the opposite when emerging markets are in a down cycle, yet it should be mitigated by all the constituents being within developed markets," said Russell Indexes senior research director Tom Goodwin.
Source: Russell
ETF Securities Global Commodity ETP Quarterly-Q4 2012
January 18, 2013--The report includes:
A comprehensive and fully up-to-date reference guide to investing in global commodity ETPs and indexes-no ETP type or geographic area is excluded. The report details the large and growing choice of commodity ETP exposures and strategies around the world.
Summary analysis of global commodity ETP flows, trading volumes and AUM trends. Includes a detailed analysis of what has been driving trends in 2012 and the outlook for 2013.
Roll yield analysis (contango/backwardation) broken down by individual commodity and commodity sectors.
view the ETF Securities Global Commodity ETP Quarterly-Q4 2012
Source: ETF Securities
Energy Position Limits May Cause More Price Volatility, IEA Says
January 18, 2013--The implementation of stricter regulations on global swaps markets, such as position limits and higher margin requirements, may cause energy prices to become more volatile, the International Energy Agency said.
“The new rules are intended to bring transparency to the swaps markets and lower their risks,” the Paris-based energy adviser said in its monthly oil market report today. “Regulatory uncertainties and inconsistencies within and across jurisdictions might in fact lead to less transparent and more risky global financial markets.”
Source: Bloomberg
State Street 4th-qtr profit up 26 pct, beats estimates
January 18, 2013--State Street Corp said on Friday fourth-quarter profit beat Wall Street estimates, rising 26 percent on a big boost from investment management fees.
Net income was $468 million, or $1.00 a share, compared with $371 million, or 76 cents a share, in the year-ago period.
On an operating basis, State Street earned $521 million, or $1.11 a share.
Source: Reuters