IMF Research Bulletin-September 2013
September 16, 2013--The IMF Research Bulletin-September 2013 is now available.
view the IMF Research Bulletin-September 2013
Source: IMF
When market movers are the index makers
Investors have outsourced much power to the index providers
September 15, 2013--Who has the power to move markets? Often some unlikely candidates.
As everyone learnt during the global financial crisis, rating agencies had been given too much power.
This was the side-effect of regulations that placed limits on the bonds that banks or fund managers could hold, based on their ratings. The result was to outsource due diligence to the agencies. This put far more weight on the opinion of one or two analysts than they were ever designed to bear....
Source: FT.com
BIS September 2013 Quarterly Review: Markets precipitate tightening
September 15, 2013--Higher yields in advanced economies generated serious tremors in emerging markets.
Cross-border claims of BIS reporting banks were broadly stable in the first quarter of 2013, Banks redirected lending from the advanced economies to emerging markets, especially to China, Brazil and Russia.
Japanese banks returned as the world's largest providers of cross-border credit, a position they had lost in the aftermath of the crisis in the 1990s.
Corporations from emerging markets have overtaken firms from the advanced economies as the largest group of issuers of corporate debt securities in offshore financial centres.
Benjamin Cohen (BIS) finds that large banks raised their capital ratios mainly by increasing retained earnings rather than by reducing their assets or loan books.
view the BIS Quarterly Review, September 2013
Source: BIS
EPFR Global News Release-Equity Fund flows following key indexes higher as fears about Syrian conflict recede
September 13, 2013--With fears of an imminent US strike on Syria receding and positive GDP numbers coming in from all corners of the globe, flows into EPFR Global-tracked Equity Funds rebounded during the second week of September to their highest level since mid-July.
Commitments to US and Emerging Markets Equity Funds hit nine and 30 week highs respectively, Europe Equity Funds posted their second biggest inflow year-to-date and flows into Japan Equity Funds hit levels last seen since the third week of May.
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Source: EPFR
Concerns Over Shadow Banking, Optimism for Emerging Markets
Global growth is recovering, but still weak.
While GDP growth of developing countries is slowing, it is still much faster than the GDP growth of developed countries.
Chinese economy is entering a period of slower growth.
September 13, 2013--Emerging markets will still lead global economic growth, said Min Zhu, Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but there will continue to be challenges.
As the world pulls itself out of the financial crisis, uncertainty and volatility remain the norm for the global economy.
Panellists in a debate on the global economic outlook discussed the Chinese shadow banking sector, referring to the system of non-bank intermediaries that provide services similar to traditional financial institutions, and whose size and health has concerned some investors.
Source: WEF (World Economic Forum)
Trade and Development Report 2013: Adjusting to the Changing Dynamics of the World Economy
September 12, 2013--New UNCTAD report argues that the world economy is experiencing a structural shift, and that countries must introduce fundamental changes in their growth strategies in order to adjust to it.
In particular, developing and transition economies that have been overly dependent on exports should give a greater role to domestic and regional demand.
The Trade and Development Report 2013 notes that the current global economic and financial crisis reflects a structural shift of the world economy, and that adjusting to this structural shift requires fundamental changes to the prevailing growth strategies.
view the UNCTAD Trade And Development Report, 2013
Source: UNCTAD
WEF New Report: Bringing Impact Investing From the Margins to the Mainstream
September 12, 2013--World Economic Forum report highlights the potential of impact investing to generate market returns while addressing key social and environmental challenges
79% of impact investors are already targeting market rates of return; to reach a 2020 market projection of more than US$ 500 billion, the impact investment sector needs to grow significantly
The report engaged 150 mainstream investors, business executives and policy-makers, advancing the Forum's impact investment agenda Download the report here.
The World Economic Forum, in collaboration with Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, today launched From the Margins to the Mainstream: Assessment of the Impact Investment Sector and Opportunities to Engage Mainstream Investors. The report provides a market assessment and recommendations for how mainstream investors can more actively engage in impact investing.
Impact investing- an investment approach intentionally seeking to create both financial return and positive social impact that is actively measured-has been hailed as an emerging investment approach with the potential to reconcile key shortcomings in traditional financial markets.
Source: WEF (World Economic Forum)
FSB publishes monitoring note on the effects of regulatory reforms on Emerging Market and Developing Economies
September 12, 2013--The FSB published on 12 September 2013 a monitoring note on the effects of regulatory reforms on Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs).
The note, which has been prepared in collaboration with standard-setting bodies and international financial institutions, provides an update of monitoring developments since the FSB's June 2012 study.
Source: Financial Stability Board (FSB)
Concerns Mount over Impact of Monetary Policy Unwinding
September 12, 2013--The impact of the tapering off of the US Federal Reserve's quantitative easing will affect emerging markets in different ways, depending on their respective fundamentals.
The variation in performance makes it difficult for global businesses to formulate strategy and manage risk.
While emerging economies recovered strongly from the global economic crisis, concerns are rising about how well some countries will fare once monetary policy stimulus in the US and other developed economies unwinds. In a session on new sources of growth at the World Economic Forum's seventh Annual Meeting of the New Champions, leading economists warned of the consequences of the tapering off of quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserve Bank, which is expected to start this month.
The unwinding of monetary policy is one reason that global growth has slowed, including in emerging markets, said Min Zhu, Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Source: WEF (World Economic Forum)
IMF Working Paper-Procyclical Behavior of Institutional Investors During the Recent Financial Crisis: Causes, Impacts, and Challenges
September 11, 2013--Summary: This paper (i) provides evidence on the procyclical investment behavior of major institutional investors during the global financial crisis; (ii) identifies the main factors that could account for such behavior; (iii) discussses the implications of procyclical behavior; and (iv) proposes a framework for sound investment practices for long-term investors.
Such procyclical investment behavior is understandable and may be considered rational from an individual institution's perspective. However, our main conclusion is that behaving in a manner consistent with longterm investing would lead to better long-term, risk-adjusted returns and, importantly, could lessen the potential adverse effects of the procyclical investment behavior of institutional investors on global financial stability.
Source: IMF