ETFS Precious Metals Weekly-Gold and silver prices ncounterintuitively-surge as US suspends debt ceiling
October 21, 2013--Gold and silver prices rally as US suspends debt ceiling to 2014. Gold and
silver prices rallied strongly last week after the US passed a bill to reopen the government and suspend the federal debt limit until 7 February 2014.
The rally in gold and silver prices may seem counter-intuitive at first given their safe haven reputations. However, it has to be remembered that both gold and silver prices often have strong negative correlations to movements in the US dollar. Therefore in the run up to the debt ceiling deadline, as US short term rates increased on fears of possible default and the US dollar strengthened, gold and silver prices declined. In a similar manner, when an agreement to raise the debt ceiling was finally signed, US short-term rates and the US dollar fell, and gold and silver prices rallied. Given the rise in COMEX gold futures open interest last week and known large outstanding COMEX gold short positions, the rallies were likely further supported by short covering in the futures market following the agreement. Barring any extreme macro events, we expect the US dollar and rate expectations to continue to drive short term moves in gold and silver prices. With tapering off the table for now, prices may find further short term support.
Source: ETF Securities
ESMA publishes updated data on performance of credit ratings
October 21, 2013--The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has published its latest set of semi-annual statistical data on the performance of credit ratings, including transition matrices and default rates.
This latest dataset covers the period from 1 January to 30 June 2013 and is available in the Central Rating Repository (CEREP). In an effort to increase the transparency and comprehensiveness of CEREP statistics, ESMA has included ratings assigned to covered bonds as a new separate category.
Source: ESMA
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report-October 2013
October 21, 2013--Oil Market Highlights
The OPEC Reference Basket rose for the fourth consecutive month in September, increasing by
$1.21/b to average $108.73/b. Crude oil futures prices began the month with some upward momentum fuelled by supply outages and a spike in geopolitical tensions. However, with the easing
of geopolitical concerns, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic began to drop steadily, shedding some $8/b.
An improvement in supply prospects from the MENA region and Sudan, along with assurances by major suppliers and international oil agencies that the market was well-supplied, also dampened the upward pressure on crude oil prices. As the rally in the crude futures market came to end, money managers sharply reduced their record-high net length positions at the end of September. On the Nymex, the front-month WTI contract fell 30ยข to $106.24 in September, while ICE Brent improved slightly to average $111.25/b.
World economic growth for 2013 and 2014 remains unchanged at 2.9% and 3.5% respectively, although ongoing developments regarding the budget stand-off in the US requires close monitoring. US growth for 2013 has been revised down to 1.6% from 1.7%, while the 2014 forecast remains at 2.5%. The Euro-zone growth forecast for the current year has been revised up to -0.3% from -0.5% and to 0.7% from 0.6% for 2014. Japan's forecast for 2013 has been revised up to 1.9% from 1.7% and growth for 2014 has been revised to 1.5% from 1.4%. India has been impacted by capital outflows and its 2013 forecast has been lowered to 5.0% and its 2014 forecast reduced to 5.8%. China's growth expectations remain unchanged at 7.6% and 7.7% for 2013 and 2014, respectively.
Source: OPEC
BNY Mellon Launches the Collateral Universe(SM)
BNY Mellon CSD receives Securities Settlement System status
New Collateral Aggregator offering unveiled
October 21, 2013--On September 26, 2013, BNY Mellon, the global leader in investment management and investment services,announced the launch of the Collateral Universe(SM), the company's suite of second generation collateral management capabilities and solutions, designed to help buy-side clients manage the impact of regulatory change on their investment processes.
The BNY Mellon Collateral Universe combines the company's comprehensive range of collateral management and related solutions with the benefits provided by its central securities depositary- BNY Mellon CSD-and its new Collateral Aggregator.
Source: BNY Mellon
Infographic-The UK as the global centre for investment in China: London and the renminbi explained in 3 steps
October 21, 2013--The infographic-The UK as the global centre for investment in China: London and the renminbi explained in 3 steps is available for viewing.
Source: HM Treasury
EPFR Global News Release-Flows into US Equity Funds rebound ahead of debt deal but Money Market Funds hit hard
October 18, 2013--The week ending October 16 saw over $10 billion flow into US Equity Funds as lawmakers in the world's biggest economy added the federal budget and the national debt ceiling to the list of cans kicked into 1H14. But the short-term deal to fund the US government and extend its borrowing authority had no immediate effect on the exodus from US Money Market Funds or the accelerating flows into funds dedicated to Europe and China.
Overall, EPFR Global-tracked Equity Funds absorbed a net $17.2 billion during a week when investors pulled $3.25 billion out of Bond Funds and an eye-popping $69.7 billion out of Money Market Funds.
The redemptions from Money Market Funds were the second largest since EPFR Global started tracking them.
Visit www.epfr.com for more info
Source: EPFR
ESMA publishes signed AIFMD cooperation agreements
October 18, 2013--The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has published a table showing the state of play of Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) signed by EU national supervisors.
ESMA had negotiated the template MoUs regarding the Alternative Investment Fund Directive (AIFMD) with non-EU regulators around the globe. The AIFMD MoUs allow the exchange of information between EU and non-EU supervisors thus enabling non-EU fund managers to market alternative funds within the European Union. The AIFMD covers hedge funds, private equity and real estate funds.
Source: ESMA
New global index exposes 'modern slavery' worldwide
October 17, 2013--The Global Slavery Index 2013 says India has the highest number of people living in conditions of slavery at 14 million.
But Mauritania has the highest proportional figure with about 4% of its population enslaved.
The report's authors hope it will help governments tackle what they call a "hidden crime".
view the Global Slavery Index 2013 report
Source: BBC
Northern Trust-Economic Updates
October 17, 2013--Less than 24 hours before the U.S. Treasury Department ran out of room to borrow, Congress arrived at an agreement to reopen the government and steer away from debt default. This news came as a great relief, but that feeling may only last a few months.
Following are some highlights and an initial analysis of the accord.
1.A continuing resolution has granted spending authority that should last U.S. government departments through the middle of January. The onset of the next round of automatic cuts (known as the sequester) will not take force until then. The hope is that budget discussions in the coming months will arrive at a more nuanced approach to spending control than the blunt method contained in the sequester.
2.The debt ceiling has been suspended until February 7. This means that the Treasury can borrow to meet its expenses through that date, adding to the debt ceiling on a flow basis. This design is similar to the accord reached last May.
Source: Northern Trust
World Bank-DPG-Weekly Global Economic Brief
October 17, 2013--The temporary resolution of the US debt ceiling standoff briefly supported market confidence, but political uncertainty will persist in coming months
Rapid credit growth observed in some developing countries in recent years implies growing banking sector exposure to rising interest rates
Base metal prices recovered in the third quarter, but price risks are weighted on the downside
The stalemate in US budget negotiations and rising concerns about a potential technical default on US debt has gradually affected market confidence. Contagion to developing countries has been limited but is likely to increase in the absence of a lasting resolution. Investment spending showed signs of improving further in the third quarter in high income economies, supported by strong consumer spending and still easy financial conditions. The outlook, however, remains vulnerable to downside risks from fiscal policy uncertainty in the US. Officially recorded remittance flows to developing countries are projected to increase by 6.3 percent to reach $414 billion in 2013.
Officially recorded remittance flows to developing countries are projected to increase by 6.3 percent to reach $414 billion in 2013 but remain broadly stable as a share of recipient GDP. Based on new migrant stock estimates by the UN Population Division (232 million), and consistent with an expected strengthening of the global economy, remittance flows to developing countries are projected to rise by an annual average of over 8 percent during 2014-2016. Remittance flows to developing Europe and Central Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean are projected to grow most rapidly, supported by strengthening activity in Euro Area and the US respectively. Nonetheless, high transactions cost continue to hinder remittance flows. In 2013, the global average costs for sending remittances remained broadly unchanged at about 9 percent.
view the World Bank-DPG-Weekly Global Economic Brief
Source: World Bank