ETF Securities-Precious Metals Weekly-Precious Metals Decline as US Growth Prospects Improve
May 5, 2014--Strong April US unemployment report overshadows weak Q1 GDP, pushing gold price down. The gold price continued to decline last week as equities recovered despite a
mere 0.1% print for US Q1 GDP, with investors' preferring to focus on the green shoots of spring. Better than expected US unemployment data on Friday with the rate dropping to 6.3% from 6.7%, confirmed what most analysts have been expecting, a pickup in economic
growth following the extremely harsh winter.
The silver price also declined, dropping 2.5% on the week. Palladium bucked the trend adding 1.4% for a year-to-date (YTD) gain of 14.0%. Inflation and inflation expectations remained non-existent as demonstrated by declining bond yields. On the first day of May, the US 30-year bond yield dropped to the lowest yield since June 2013 at 3.41%, down from near 4.0% at the end of 2013.
Gold GOFO rates continued to indicate a tight market with rates ending the week in negative territory out to 6-months. Expanding economic growth with disinflation from such low levels is not usual but appeared to be the state of things at the end of last week, overshadowing Russian aggression fears. Historically, gold has performed best in strong inflationary and deflationary environments but not so well during disinflationary periods. There is not much disinflation left from 1.1% CPI, the YOY level at the end of 2013. .
A lack of resolution of labour dispute in South Africa boosts palladium price.
Source: ETF Securities
Average daily volume of 8,7 million contracts at Eurex Group in April
May 2, 2014--In April, the international derivatives exchanges of Eurex Group recorded an average daily volume of 8, 7 million contracts (April 2013: 9.8 million). Of those, 6.1 million were Eurex Exchange contracts (April 2013: 7.1 million), and 2, 6 million contracts (April 2013: 2.7 million) were traded at the U.S.-based International Securities Exchange (ISE).
In total, 177.2 million contracts were traded, thereof 122.2 million at Eurex Exchange and 54.9 million at the ISE.
In its largest segment -equity index derivatives- Eurex Exchange achieved 47, 6 million contracts (April 2013: 54.3 million). Futures on the EURO STOXX 50 Index stood at 18.6 million contracts and 17.1 million on the index options. Futures on the DAX index totalled 2.1 million contracts while the DAX options reached another 2.6 million contracts.
Source: Eurex
Global flows in a digital age
April 30, 2014--Global flows have been a common thread in economic growth for centuries, since the days of the Silk Road, through the mercantilist and colonial periods and the Industrial Revolution. But today, the movement of goods, services, finance, and people has reached previously unimagined levels. Global flows are creating new degrees of connectedness among economies-and playing an ever-larger role in determining the fate of nations, companies, and individuals; to be unconnected is to fall behind.
Flows of goods, services, and finance reached $26 trillion in 2012, or 36 percent of global GDP, 1.5 times the level in 1990. Now, one in three goods crosses national borders, and more than one-third of financial investments are international transactions. In the next decade, global flows could triple, powered by rising prosperity and participation in the emerging world and by the spread of the Internet and digital technologies. Our scenarios show that global flows could reach $54 trillion to $85 trillion by 2025, more than double or triple their current scale.
Source: McKinsey Global Institute (MGI)
MSCI Completes Sale of ISS
April 30, 2014--MSCI Inc. (NYSE: MSCI), a leading provider of investment decision support tools worldwide, announced today that it has completed the sale of Institutional Shareholder Services Inc. ("ISS"), its wholly-owned subsidiary comprising MSCI's Governance segment, to Vestar Capital Partners for total cash
consideration of $367 million, subject to customary post,closing adjustments.
Source: MSCI
Eurex to launch index futures contracts based on TASE's main index in June
New contracts available as of 9 June 2014
The Tel-Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE) and Eurex Exchange, the international derivatives marketplace and part of Deutsche Börse Group, announced today during a joint press briefing, that Eurex Exchange will list index futures based on the TA-25, Israel's blue chip index, as of 9 June 2014.
The TA-25 index is one of the most heavily traded regional equity indexes. Eurex Exchange's TA-25 index futures will be denominated in US dollars.
Source: Eurex
IMF Working paper-Monetary Policy Coordination and the Role of Central Banks
April 29, 2014--Summary: The unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) pursued by the advanced economies (AEs) have posed macroeconomic challenges for the emerging market economies (EMEs) through volatile capital flows and exchange rates. AE central banks need to acknowledge and appreciate the spillovers resulting from such UMPs.
Central banks of the AEs, who have set up standing mutual swap facilities, should explore similar arrangements with other significant EMEs with appropriate risk mitigation measures. These initiatives could do much to actually curb volatility in global financial markets and hence in capital flows to EMEs, thus obviating the need for defensive policy actions on the part of EMEs.
IMF Working paper-Monetary Policy Coordination and the Role of Central Banks
Source: IMF
Advancing Investment in Infrastructure for the Digital Economy
Delivering Digital Infrastructure: Advancing the Internet Economy, a World Economic Forum report, examines the technological, commercial and policy challenges associated with digital infrastructure
Recommendations address spectrum availability, IP interconnection disputes, and policies and regulations
April 29, 2014--The World Economic Forum released today a new report that examines the long-term growth of the digital economy and the viability of the infrastructure that supports it.
The report, Delivering Digital Infrastructure: Advancing the Internet Economy, produced in collaboration with The Boston Consulting Group, focuses on current threats to digital infrastructure-including fixed and mobile internet infrastructure, telecommunications equipment and devices, and cloud infrastructure-in the United States, Europe and emerging markets.
view the WEF-Delivering Digital Infrastructure-Advancing the Internet Economy report
Source: WEF (World Economic Forum)
2011 International Comparison Program Summary Results Release Compares the Real Size of the World Economies
April 29, 2014--The International Comparison Program (ICP) released new data today showing that the world economy produced goods and services worth over $90 trillion in 2011, and that almost half of the world's total output came from low and middle income countries.
Under the authority of the United Nations Statistical Commission, the 2011 round of ICP covered 199 economies-the most extensive effort to measure Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) across countries ever. ICP 2011 estimates benefited from a number of methodological improvements over past efforts to calculate PPPs.
view the Main Results for the Largest Economies and Economies with Highest and Lowest GDP per capita
Source: World Bank
ETF Securities-Precious Metals Weekly-Gold Benefits with Bonds as Russia-Ukraine Tensions Escalate
April 28, 2014--The deteriorating situation in the Ukraine continues to benefit gold and other defensive assets. Escalating Russian aggression towards the Ukraine is causing investors
to build their holdings of defensive assets, including gold. Indeed, US long bonds, along with gold have been some of the best investments so far in 2014, highlighting investor anxiety
about the potential ramifications from Russian conflict.
Gold is also gaining traction as a portfolio diversifier as equity markets have displayed their sensitivity to emerging market headwinds. It is also interesting to note that gold forward offered (GOFO) rates have recently moved negative again, indicating a tight market. As the chart below shows, often a sharp fall in GOFO rates precedes a rise in the gold price.
False hopes of South Africa strike resolution pressures platinum price-we expect weakness to be short lived. Platinum and palladium prices were pressured last week by the prospect of a strike resolution as the major (PGM) producers agreed to raise wages near to levels being demanded by the union.
Source: ETF Securities
IMF Policy Paper-Global Liquidity-Issues for Surveillance
April 25, 2014--Summary:The paper starts by presenting evidence of commonality in global financial conditions. This commonality is then related to specific drivers of global financial conditions through a range of transmission channels, including cross-border banking and portfolio flows. Empirical analysis shows a range of price and quantity factors, including measures of risk, bank leverage, and interest rates in financial centers, to drive in part these flows.
ountry specific policies, including exchange rate and prudential frameworks, are shown to affect the transmission of global conditions. Much remains unknown though, including how evolving structures of global funding, changing institutions, and ongoing financial innovations affect the mechanics of liquidity creation, the channels of liquidity transmission, and potential risks going forward.
view the IMF Policy Paper-Global Liquidity-Issues for Surveillance
Source: IMF