Local Currency Bonds Catch On as Countries Aim to Catch Up
May 15, 2014--STORY HIGHLIGHTS
Issuing bonds in local currency is one way the World Bank Group helps to build up nascent capital markets in developing countries.
Since 2002, IFC has issued bonds in 14 emerging market currencies around the world, and has frequently been the first international issuer in a domestic bond market.
IFC has just issued local currency bonds in Rwanda and is also in discussions with other countries in Africa, Asia, emerging Europe, and Latin America.
view the inforgraphic IFC Local Currency Bond Issuances as of March 2014
Source: World Bank
Regulators' expenditure increased by nearly 60% in recent years
May 15,2014--Financial services regulators in the US, UK and Hong Kong have increased their expenditure over the last seven years by 59.4%, an average of 8.075% each year, since the end of fiscal year 2006/07 according to new research from Kinetic Partners, the global financial services advisory firm.
The increase may be the product of growing pressure on regulatory agencies to deepen the scrutiny of those working in the financial services industry following the crash in 2008.
Kinetic Partners' research found that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) and the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (SFC) had a combined expenditure of approximately $2.4 billion in 2012/13. This was over $900 million more than the total expenditure before the financial crisis in 2006/07 of nearly $1.5 billion.
view the Global Enforcement Review 2014
Source: Kinetic Partners
Historic silver price benchmark bites the dust as banks pull out
Deutsche Bank says postpones resignation from silver fix
Alternatives being sought, customers surprised by its collapse
May 14, 2014--The 117-year old London silver price benchmark-or fix - will cease on Aug. 14, its operator said, as regulatory scrutiny of price-setting intensifies across markets.
The fix is set once a day by banks getting together via telephone to work out a price, based on deals between their clients. It is used by producers, consumers and investors who use it to base contracts on.
Source: Reuters
IMF paper-Bank Size and Systemic Risk
May 14, 2014--Summary: The proposed SDN documents the evolution of bank size and activities over the past 20 years. It discusses whether this evolution can be explained by economies of scale or "too big to fail" subsidies. The paper then presents evidence on the extent to which bank size and market-based activities contribute to systemic risk.
The paper concludes with policy messages in the area of capital regulation and activity restrictions to reduce the systemic risk posed by large banks. The analysis of the paper complements earlier Fund work, including SDN 13/04 and the recent GFSR chapter on "too big to fail" subsidies, and its policy message is in line with this earlier work.
view the IMF paper-Bank Size and Systemic Risk
Source: IMF
ETFs firms go back to the well for product launches
May 13, 2014--Exchange traded fund providers are treading well-worn paths to success in their 2014 product launches.
Many of the 57 exchange traded products launched in the first four months of this year are variations on several themes that emerged last year: currency-hedged global equity, short-term or less interest rate-sensitive segments of fixed-income, and alternative-beta strategies.
Source: FT.com
OPEC Monthly Oil Report May 2014
May 13, 2014--Oil market highlights
Crude Oil Price Movements
The OPEC Reference Basket in April increased 12¢ to $104.27/b, amid marginal improvements in most component values. Crude prices were supported by firmer refining margins, ongoing supply outages, and the return of some refineries from maintenance. On
average, Nymex WTI gained $1.53 to $102.03/b and ICE Brent increased 34¢ to $108.09/b.
The Brent-WTI spread ended the month with an average of around $6.05/b, the narrowest since September 2013.
World Economy
World economic growth in 2014 remains at 3.4%, following growth of 2.9% in 2013. The
OECD growth forecast remains at 2.0%, with the US revised down and the Euro-zone slightly higher. China’s growth forecast remains at 7.5% and India’s at 5.6%. The main lift
for 2014 growth is seen coming from OECD economies, while emerging markets are slowing. With the most recent weakness in some major OECD economies- mainly the US
and Japan-the risk to the global growth forecast is seen currently skewed slightly to the
downside.
Source: OPEC
ETF Securities-Precious Metals Weekly-Gold Recovers but Remains Within an Increasingly Narrow Range
May 12, 2014--Gold continues to see safe haven buying as Ukraine risks escalate. The gold price and
ETP flows rose last week as the situation in the Ukraine continued to escalate after brief hopes Russia might become more conciliatory. Gold's price gains were limited by a stronger US Dollar, which rallied on the back of strong US economic data and rising
expectations the ECB may be forced to quantitative ease to offset deflation.
While gold appears constrained in a relatively narrow range for the near term, any escalation in geopolitical risk is likely to keep investors positioned defensively and support the gold price.
Silver, the hybrid metal, is looking increasingly attractive. China is playing an increasingly important role in the silver market. Not only is China now the biggest silver user, it is also the dominant player in the futures market. In 2013, silver futures volume on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surpassed that of the COMEX/CME. The silver price has remained in a narrowing range, with 30-day volatility dropping to the lowest level in over a decade. Historically a sharp drop in volatility has presaged a strong price move. With gold the gold price stabilising, industrial demand for silver on the rise, futures net longs low by historical standards and the gold-silver ratios the highest it has been in four years, we believe that the next significant move is likely to be up.
Source: ETF Securities
Asset Managers Adjust to HFT
May 12, 2014--Hedge funds and other asset managers are showing continuing interest in the way that orders get executed, which can make the difference between a profitable trade and an unprofitable one.
"One of the most dramatic evolutions we've seen is involvement by the buy side," said Ronan Ryan, chief strategy officer at IEX Group. "Many were involved before, but post-'Flash Crash' a large majority got involved. They're asking more questions, and they’re taking more control of their order flow based on the answers they are receiving and researching.
Source: Markets Media
DECPG Weekly Economic Brief
May 9, 2014--April readings of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) show factory output in the U.S. and euro area progressing at a rapid pace,
plummeting in Japan as a result of a consumption tax hike, and weakening in developing countries. Declining activity in Ukraine and Russia
is impacting growth projections for Europe and Central Asia this year. More serious consequences are possible if confidence deteriorates in
the face of worsening conditions on the ground.
Capital flows to developing countries remained strong in April, with developing countries issuing a record $42 billion in new bonds, supported by favorable global financing conditions. The expansion of global manufacturing activity continued in April, despite further signs of slowdown in developing countries and contraction in Japan. Based on April PMI data, industrial activity was firmly in expansion mode in the U.S. and the euro area, but plunged in Japan as both output and new orders were driven sharply down by the dampening impact of a consumption tax hike. In developing countries, slowing activity was broad-based, but more pronounced in South Africa - where strikes in platinum mines have compounded underlying weakness in manufacturing- and Brazil -where deteriorating domestic demand conditions and supply constraints led to declining output after four months of subdued growth. China’s PMI was broadly stable at a level consistent with sub-par industrial activity at the start of the second quarter. A number of countries bucked the trend, with strong export orders in Indonesia and Vietnam leading to increasing confidence in those two countries. PMIs in Mexico, India and Turkey were also broadly stable and continued to indicate modest growth.
Source: World Bank
MSCI May Semi-Annual Index Review Announcement Scheduled for May 14, 2014
May 7, 2014--MSCI Inc., a leading provider of investment decision support tools worldwide, including indexes, portfolio risk and performance analytics and ESG data and research, will announce the results of the May 2014 Semi-Annual Index Review for the MSCI Equity Indexes-including the MSCI Global Standard, MSCI Global Small Cap and MSCI Micro Cap Indexes, the MSCI Global Value and Growth Indexes, the MSCI Frontier Markets and MSCI Frontier Markets Small Cap Indexes
, the MSCI Global Islamic and MSCI Global Islamic Small Cap Indexes, the MSCI Pan-Euro and MSCI Euro Indexes, the MSCI US Equity Indexes, the MSCI US REIT Index, and the MSCI China A Indexes. All changes will be made as of the close of May 30, 2014.
Source: MSCI