DB Markets Research-The Flow Whisperer TAARSS says increase equities, but still prefer fixed income in Q3
Tactical Asset Allocation Relative Strength Signal (TAARSS) Monthly Update
July 2, 2014--Market review
Global equities (ACWI) extended their May rally into the month of June by
adding 1.82%. In turn, US bonds (AGG) were mostly flat during the same
period (-0.06%); while,Commodities recovered from the previous month losses
by recording a 2.11% gain in June.
TAARSS rotation strategy quarterly and monthly performance review TAARSS rotation strategies were all positive for the previous month and quarter; however most of them underperformed their benchmarks (Figure 1).
Within equities, EM (2.40%), US Small Caps (5.27%), Latin America (3.22%), and Canada (5.70%) were the strongest performers per strategy; while Gold (6.32%) and Convertibles (2.30%) were the top categories within commodities and fixed income, respectively during the month of June. On a quarterly basis, Global Equities recorded the strongest returns during Q2 with 5.95%.
Source: Deutsche Bank Markets Research-Global-Synthetic Equity & Index Strategy-
Average daily volume of 8.0 million contracts at Eurex Group in June
July 2, 2014--In June, the international derivatives exchanges of Eurex Group recorded an average daily volume of 8.0 million contracts (June 2013: 10.1 million). Of those, 6.0 million were Eurex Exchange contracts (June 2013: 8.1 million), and 2.0 million contracts (June 2013: 2.7 million) were traded at the U.S.-based International Securities Exchange (ISE). In total, 126.0 million contracts were traded at Eurex Exchange and 42.0 million at the ISE.
In its largest segment-equity index derivatives-Eurex Exchange achieved 56.4 million contracts (June 2013: 68.3 million). The single largest derivatives contract was the future on the EURO STOXX 50(R) Index with 26.3 million contracts. The option on this blue chip index totaled 17.4 million contracts. Futures on the DAX index totaled 2.1 million contracts while the DAX options reached another 2.2 million contracts. The Eurex KOSPI Product traded 1.0 million contracts.
Source: Eurex
IMF Working-Growth: Now and Forever?
July 2, 2014--Summary: Forecasters often predict continued rapid economic growth into the medium and long term for countries that have recently experienced strong growth.
Using long-term forecasts of economic growth from the IMF/World Bank staff Debt Sustainability Analyses for a panel of countries, we show that the baseline forecasts are more optimistic than warranted by past international growth experience. Further, by comparing the IMF's World Economic Outlook forecasts with actual growth outcomes, we show that optimism bias is greater the longer the forecast horizon.
view the IMF Working-Growth: Now and Forever?
Source: IMF
Concern over siloed approaches to collateral
July 2, 2014--While regulation increases collateral needs, particularly as the derivatives market moves toward central clearing, market participants are cobbling together fragmented systems, manual processes, and siloed approaches to ensure compliance, creating significant inefficiencies,says Sapient Global Markets in a recent whitepaper.
A preceding Sapient survey found that only 45% of market participants felt strongly that their institutions have efficient processes for collateral management, particularly in the area of communication and dispute management.
Source: Thetradenews.com
Global growth to slow as wage inequality rises over coming decades, says OECD
July 2, 2014--A slowdown in global economic growth and a continuing rise in income inequality are projected for the coming decades, according to a new OECD study which looks beyond the crisis at what the world could look like by 2060.
Ageing populations in many OECD countries and the gradual deceleration from current high rates of growth in the large emerging economies will bring global rises in GDP down from an annual average 3.6% in the 2010-2020 period to an estimated 2.4% in 2050-2060. Innovation and investment in skills will be the predominant drivers of growth.
Source: OECD
BlackRock ETFs near $1 trillion as it loses market share to Vanguard
June 30, 2014--Even as BlackRock Inc is set to amass $1 trillion in exchange-traded fund assets in its iShares business, US Retail investors increasingly prefer to send their money to low-cost leader Vanguard Group, highlighting a weak spot for the world's biggest money manager.
With $998 billion in ETF money, BlackRock has more than the next contenders, Vanguard and State Street Corp, combined. But the company has struggled to compete with Vanguard, known for its investor-friendly low-cost investing, for Mom and Pop's nest eggs. Retail investors now account for more than half of the $1.8 trillion in ETF assets under management in the US, according to consulting firm PwC
Source: Economic Times
Chinese lenders made 30% of global bank profits
June 30, 2014-China's top banks have accounted for almost one-third of a record $920bn of profits made by the world's biggest 1,000 banks in 2013,
showing their rise in power since the financial crisis, Reuters has reported.
Source: AME Info
Time to step out of the shadow of the crisis, says BIS in 84th Annual Report
June 29, 2014--A new policy compass is needed to help the global economy step out of the shadow of the Great Financial Crisis, writes the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in its 84th Annual Report, released today. In its main economic review for the year, the BIS calls for adjustments to the current policy mix and to policy frameworks with the aim of restoring sustainable and balanced economic growth.
The BIS points out that the global economy has shown encouraging signs over the past year but it has not shaken off its post-crisis malaise. Despite an aggressive and broad-based search for yield, with volatility and credit spreads sinking towards historical lows, and unusually accommodative monetary conditions, investment remains weak. Debt, both private and public, continues to rise while productivity growth has further extended its long-term downward trend. There is even talk of secular stagnation.
view the 84th BIS Annual Report, 2013/2014
Source:BIS
LSE to Buy Frank Russell to Expand Play in Indexes, ETF
June 26, 2014--London Stock Exchange Group Plc (LSE) agreed to buy Frank Russell Co., a unit of Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Co., for $2.7 billion to bolster its FTSE International Ltd. business.
LSE will pay for the acquisition with a rights issue of $1.6 billion and finance the rest with new and existing debt, according to a statement. The exchange said the takeover will boost earnings in the first full year.
Source: Bloomberg
IOSCO Issues Report on Risk Identification and Assessment Methodologies
June 26, 2014--The International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) today published a report on Risk Identification and Assessment Methodologies for Securities Regulators, which provides a practical overview of the methods, approaches and tools that IOSCO and securities regulators have developed to identify and assess emerging and potential systemic risks.
The IOSCO Committee on Emerging Risks prepared the report as part of the organization's ongoing effort to identify, analyze, and monitor systemic risk.
view the IOSCO Risk Identification and Assessment Methodologies for Securities Regulators report
Source: IOSCO