SPDR Weekly Market Report -November 14, 2014
November 14, 2014--ECONOMIES: The quit rate posts a healthy rise in the US. Housing starts fall in Canada. The labor market continues to tighten in the UK.
GDP rises modestly in the Eurozone. Consumer confidence erodes again in Japan. Wage inflation remains low in Australia.
MARKETS: Equities and bonds remain mixed. Sterling and Yen are sharply lower. Oil continues to fall.
NEXT WEEK PREVIEWED
SPOTLIGHT: The Bank of Japan should make no further changes to policy at this time. Industrial production and housing starts are expected to rise moderately in the US. Inflation likely slows in the US and UK. GDP is expected to rise in Japan.
THE WEEK IN REVIEW
US
The JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER report remains encouraging. Admittedly, the number of job openings
(vacancies) slipped 118,000 to 4,735,000 in September. However, this is the second highest level so far in this recovery, and this measure of labor demand remains on a distinct and strong rising trend, which is highlighted by the robust 19.9% rise in September from a year earlier...
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Source: SSgA
IMF Working paper-Slowdown in Emerging Markets: Sign of a Bumpy Road Ahead?
November 14, 2014--Summary: Following very strong growth during the period 2000-12, emerging market economies (EMEs) experienced a slowdown in the last couple of years. This paper examines the supply-side drivers of the strong growth performance of 63 EMEs and investigates if the recent slowdown in growth is transitory or a more permanent phenomenon.
We find that on average the recent slowdown is explained equally by structural and cyclical factors, although there are large variations across countries and regions. While the cyclical component of the slowdown can be corrected by countercyclical policies (provided that there is sufficient policy space), structural bottlenecks are harder to address. Given the expected moderation of capital accumulation and some natural constraints on labor, the strong growth momentum of 2000-12 is unlikely to be repeated going forward, unless TFP performance improves significantly via structural reforms.
view the IMF Working paper-Slowdown in Emerging Markets: Sign of a Bumpy Road Ahead?
Source: IMF
DECPG Weekly Economic Brief-November 14, 2014
November 14, 2014--Oil prices dropped almost 20 percent between June and October 2014, and weakened to $78/bbl in mid-November, for the first time
since the 2008/09 financial crisis. The U.S. dollar appreciation, strong oil supplies and weak demand due to growth slowdown, diminished geopolitical risks, and OPEC's inaction contributed to the price weakness. A sustained decline in oil prices could result
from a greater-than-expected expansion in oil production in the U.S. and a sharper-than-expected deceleration in global oil demand.
Numerous factors contributed to the oil price weakness. These included the strengthening of the U.S. dollar against major currencies, weakening growth prospects in emerging economies (where most growth in oil demand takes place), anemic growth outlook in the euro area, and strong supplies by the U.S. and some OPEC member countries, including Libya and Iraq despite rebel insurgencies in the latter. The U.S. added more than 3 mb/d to global crude oil supplies in the past four years as new technologies-hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling-are enabling numerous small energy companies to extract quantities of crude oil from tight rock formations. OPEC's inaction may have also played a role in the price decline.
Source: World Bank
LSE to conclude Russell deal within weeks
November 13, 2014--The London Stock Exchange Group said its planned $2.7bn purchase of Russell Investments,
the US indices compiler, was ahead of schedule and likely to close in the coming weeks...
Source: FT.com
Carney-Yellen Neck-and-Neck on Being First to Raise Rates
November 13, 2014--Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen may just beat Bank of England Governor Mark Carney to the first interest-rate increase since the financial crisis.
Investors extended bets yesterday on how long the BOE will keep its benchmark at a record-low 0.5 percent after officials cut their growth and inflation forecasts.
Source: Bloomberg
World Gold Council-Gold Demand Trends Third Quarter 2014
November 13, 2014--This edition of GDT examines all the latest developments of gold demand and supply during the third quarter of 2014 by sector and by region
Third quarter 2014 in summary
Jewellery demand in good health: Q3 demand of 534.2t above 5-year quarterly average
Third quarter demand was marginally stronger than the 5-year quarterly average of 527.6t, while year-to-date volumes extended the broad uptrend from the low seen in 2009.Year-on-year comparisons were again heavily influenced by the events of last year: demand was 4% below Q3 2013.
Investment demand up 6% to 204t, retail investors continued to digest 2013 demand surge
A remarkably stable gold price was both a cause and effect of a benign demand environment in the third quarter. Bar and coin investors continued to digest the demand surge of 2013, lacking clear price signals to provide fresh impetus to invest.
view the Gold Demand Trends Q3 2014 report
Source: World Gold Council (WGC)
Signs of stress must not be ignored, IEA warns in its new World Energy Outlook
Energy sector must tackle longer-term pressure points before they reach breaking point
November 12, 2014--Events of the last year have increased many of the long-term uncertainties facing the global energy sector, says the International Energy Agency's (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2014 (WEO-2014).
It warns against the risk that current events distract decision makers from recognising and tackling the longer-term signs of stress that are emerging in the energy system.
In the central scenario of WEO-2014, world primary energy demand is 37% higher in 2040, putting more pressure on the global energy system. But this pressure would be even greater if not for efficiency measures that play a vital role in holding back global demand growth. The scenario shows that world demand for two out of the three fossil fuels-coal and oil-essentially reaches a plateau by 2040, although, for both fuels, this global outcome is a result of very different trends across countries.
Source: International Energy Agency (IEA)
Deciphering Developing Markets-HDFC Bank and Foreign Institutional Investors
November 12, 2014-- Indian mortgage giant HDFC Bank is becoming a darling of foreign institutional investors (FIIs) since the board of directors in 2012 voted to allow FIIs up to a 100% stake in the bank.
These investors now hold upwards of a 75% investment. This comes on the back of positive ratings the Indian economy and equity markets have garnered after the election of a market friendly government in May. HDFC is a very well run and highly profitable financial institution. It is the fifth largest bank and the largest private sector bank in India, with a current market capitalization of $35.75 billion. Its shares are listed on both the Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange in India. The ADRs are traded on the NYSE under the symbol HDB, and the GDRs are traded on the Luxembourg Stock Exchange. In the recent quarter ending September 30, the stock was up 6.25% as against the Sensex Benchmark, of which it is a member, which is up 4.78%, YTD the stock is up 52.32%.
Source: Peter Kohli, DMS Funds
50% greater probability of achieving objectives with goal-based investing compared to traditional private wealth management approach
November 12, 2014--The success or failure of satisfying investors' objectives does not critically depend upon the stand-alone performance of a particular fund nor that of a given asset class. It depends instead upon how well the performance of the investors' portfolios dynamically interacts with the risk factors impacting the present value of investors' goals as well as the present value of non-tradable assets and future income streams, if any.
While the efficient management of all risk buckets, versus market risk alone, should be a central component of any investment solution, the practical implications of this insight have not been fully exploited to date.
Source: EDHEC
Reports on measures to reduce risk-weighted asset variability and on Basel III implementation by the Basel Committee
November 12, 2014--The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has today published two documents prepared for the G20 Leaders' Summit in Brisbane on 15-16 November:
a report on measures to reduce excessive variability in banks' regulatory capital ratios; and
an update on the implementation of Basel III standards since the 2013 progress report to G20 Leaders.
Studies conducted by the Basel Committee on banks' risk-weighting of assets confirmed that there are material variances in banks' regulatory capital ratios that arise from factors other than differences in the riskiness of banks' portfolios. These variances undermine confidence in capital ratios. In response, the Committee initiated a number of policy and supervisory actions to address excessive variability in risk-weighted assets that are based on a bank's internal models.
view the Reducing excessive variability in banks' regulatory capital ratios-A report to the G20
Source: BIS