ETFS Precious Metals Weekly- Bargain Hunting Time
November 10, 2014--Gold cost of production supports price as physical buying accelerates. Despite new
record high US equity prices and the stronger US dollar, gold was the best performing precious metal last week, declining only 0.8% compared to the 4.8% decline in silver and the
2.4% and 2.7% respective declines in platinum and palladium. One of the most obvious and instantaneous signs of strong physical demand, gold forward rates (GOFO) ended the week
in negative territory out to three months.
Gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) have accelerated to an annual pace near 2,700 tons, which is close to total global mine supply. During the month of October, just over 227 tons were withdrawn from the SGE, which is almost double that of October 2013. Meanwhile, Hong Kong gold imports for September were the highest in 5-months. In India, the Business Times of Mumbai reported heavy buying on the back of recent price declines. With the marginal cost of production for gold near US$1,100oz. and the all-in cost near US$1,200/oz., bargain hunting appears to be driving physical buying. Although gold ETFs continued to see outflows, inflows are beginning in silver, platinum and palladium ETFs. All the precious metals are currently near or below their marginal costs of production, which if sustained, should curtail mining activity, tightening supply and supporting prices.
Source: ETF Securities
WEF-More Holistic Views Key to Better Resource Management
November 10, 2014--Divided views about the future of natural resources are preventing better resource management
Understanding the drivers of future resource availability can create common ground among decision-makers
Above-ground risks present more of a threat to natural resources than physical depletion
The gravest threat to the future availability of natural resources comes not from their physical depletion but from above-ground risks and a lack of understanding of the drivers of resource scarcity. This is according to a new report, The Future Availability of Natural Resources: A New Paradigm for Global Resource Availability, released today by the Forum.
Source: WEF (World Economic Forum)
ETFGI's research finds global ETFs/ETPs gathered 35.8 billion US dollars in net new assets in October 2014 and a record 233.0 billion US dollars in NNA year-to-date
November 10, 2014--ETFGI's research finds October's global net new asset (NNA) inflows of US$35.8 Bn, while large, are not a record month. The largest month for NNA inflows was September 2012 with US$45.8 Bn. Year-to-date ETFs and ETPs globally have gathered a record US$233.0 Bn in NNA through the end of October 2014, surpassing the previous high of US$205.2 Bn set in the first 10 months of 2013.
ETFGI's research finds October's global net new asset (NNA) inflows of US$35.8 Bn, while large, are not a record month. The largest month for NNA inflows was September 2012 with US$45.8 Bn. Year-to-date ETFs and ETPs globally have gathered a record US$233.0 Bn in NNA through the end of October 2014, surpassing the previous high of US$205.2 Bn set in the first 10 months of 2013.
At the end of October 2014, the global ETF/ETP industry had 5,516 ETFs/ETPs, with 10,628 listings, from 228 providers listed on 61 exchanges with assets of US$2.68 Tn, which is down slightly from the record high of US$2.70 Tn at the end of August 2014, according to preliminary data from ETFGI's end October 2014 Global ETF and ETP industry insights report.
Year-to-date NNA flows reached record levels for the ETF/ETP industries in Japan with US$15.7 Bn, Europe with US$56.1 Bn, and globally with US$233.4 Bn. Assets invested in the US-listed ETF/ETP industry hit a new record high of US$1.95 Tn.
In October the global ETF/ETP industry gathered a record level of NNA into fixed income products, with US$20.3 Bn surpassing the prior high of US$16.2 Bn set in February 2014. US-listed ETFs/ETPs also registered a record level of monthly NNA into fixed income products, gathering US$16.3 Bn surpassing the prior record of US$13.5 Bn set in February 2014.
Source: ETFGI
BlackRock Landscape: Record Fixed Income Flows
November 10, 2014-- FIXED INCOME ETP FLOWS SET NEW RECORD IN OCTOBER ON GLOBAL GROWTH CONCERNS
Global ETP flows of $37.3bn were driven by fixed income with $19.9bn although equity flows also finished strong as stocks rebounded from a sharp correction attributed to economic growth and low inflation concerns
The fixed income inflows represented an all-time high, including records for US and European exposures, and year-to-date asset gathering of $73.3bn has already broken the annual record of $70.0bn set in 2012
EM equity redemptions of ($3.0bn) were impacted by tactical trading in broad funds, but opportunities remain for selective investors currently underweight EM, particularly for Asian economies with attractive valuations and less sensitivity to rates/central bank action
Source: BlackRock- ETP Research
S&P Dow Jones Indices And MSCI Announce The Creation Of A Real Estate Sector In The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS(R)) Structure
November 10, 2014--S&P Dow Jones Indices, a leading provider of financial market indices, and MSCI Inc., a leading provider of investment decision support tools worldwide, announced today that as a result of their annual review of the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS(R)) structure, a new Real Estate Sector is being created, elevating its position from under the Financials Sector and bringing the number of GICS Sectors to 11.
Additionally, a new Sub-Industry for Copper is being created. The changes are being considered for implementation after the market close (ET) on August 31, 2016.
Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices
ETFS Research Note-Precious Metals, Gold and Emerging Markets
November 7, 2014--Emerging markets (EMs) are increasingly the biggest drivers of precious metals (PMs) demand.
In 2013, nearly 60% of the global demand for gold, silver, platinum and palladium came from emerging markets-up from about a 1/3rd in 2003 and 1/4 in 1993.
Rapidly increasing per capita incomes and wealth are driving the demand for precious metals for jewelry, investment, electronics and emission controls.
Average per capita GDP in the BRIC countries has increased about 4-fold since the year 2000.
PMs are increasingly becoming an integral part of EMs portfolio exposure
PM demand is shifting to emerging markets, led by China and India
Since 2006, when India and China absorbed about a third of total gold global mining supplies, the average of India and China per capita GDP has approximately tripled to US$4,100 (in 2013) with a total population of 2.7 billion.1 This rapid per capita GDP growth trend is likely to continue and has the potential to accelerate. China surpassed India in 2013 as the world's largest consumer of gold.
Source: ETF Securities
DECPG Weekly Economic Brief--Nov. 7, 2014
November 7, 2014--Euro Area economic indicators have deteriorated in recent months. and the possibility of secular stagnation may be increasing. Weak
growth prospects are particularly unwelcome in an environment of very low inflation and unfavorable demographics. Given strong trade and financial linkages, low growth in the Euro Area could have negative effects on both high-income and developing economies.
Euro Area economic indicators have steadily weakened in recent months, increasing concerns that the bloc may be on a path of secular stagnation. Secular stagnation-the manifestation of low or no real economic growth following a period of declining investment and saving rates-represents a significant risk in the medium term. The European Union now expects GDP growth of 0.8 percent in the Euro Area in 2014 and 1.1 percent in 2015, sharply down from 1.2 and 1.7 percent, respectively, in the May forecast. Confidence indicators have dropped. Inflation is undesirably low in both core and periphery Euro Area countries and is likely to remain so in the near term, raising the risk of outright deflation.
Unemployment has been stubbornly high in recent years and is forecast to drop only marginally, from 11.6 percent in 2014 to 11.3 percent in 2015. The Euro Area is also increasingly challenged by its demographic profile-in particular, its high and rising old-age dependency ratio. Demographics are critical in most assessments of the presence of secular stagnation, as they are a major driver of long-term trends in saving and investment.
Source: World Bank
OTC Derivatives Regulators Issue Report to the G20 Leaders
November 7, 2014--The Over-the-Counter (OTC) Derivatives Regulators Group (ODRG) issued a report today that provides an update to the G20 Leaders regarding the ODRG's continuing effort to identify and resolve cross-border issues associated with the implementation of the G20 OTC derivatives reform agenda.
The ODRG is made up of authorities with responsibility for the regulation of OTC derivatives markets in Australia, Brazil, the European Union, Hong Kong, Japan, Ontario, Quebec, Singapore, Switzerland, and the United States.
Source: CFTC.gov
Unscheduled free float adjustment in MDAX
Novemebr 7, 2014--Deutsche Börse AG has announced an unscheduled adjustment to the free float of Sky Deutschland AG in MDAX(R). Due to the takeover of Sky Deutschland AG by British Sky Broadcasting Group PLC, the free float of Sky Deutschland AG changed by more than 10 percentage points.
According to the rules in the Guide to the Equity Indices of Deutsche Börse, the company's free float will be decreased from the current 33.12 percent to 12.55 percent. The adjustment will become effective on Wednesday, Nov. 12,, 2014.
Source: Deutsche Börse
OPEC World Oil Outlook 2014
November 6, 2014--The OPEC World Oil Outlook (WOO) has been published annually since 2007. It presents
projections for the medium-term (to 2019) and long-term (this year extended
to 2040) for oil demand and supply. The main conclusions of the WOO 2014 are
that oil will continue to play a major part in satisfying world energy needs, as the
global economy more than doubles in size, population grows, prosperity expands
everywhere, and despite a strong reduction in energy intensity.
It also illustrates the growing significance of developing countries in the energy landscape and the progressive shift towards Asia as its gravity centre. Resources are amply sufficient to meet future oil needs. The WOO also emphasizes the many uncertainties associated with the global economy and non-OPEC supply.
Similar oil price assumptions to the WOO 2013: stable, around $100/b in real terms in the long-run.
The estimated cost of supplying the marginal barrel continues to be a major factor in developing expectations for oil prices in the medium-and long-term. Costs more than doubled over the years 2004-2008; downward pressures stemming from the lower demand that resulted from the recession were only temporary, and since the beginning of 2010, upstream capital costs have been rising again.
view the OPEC World Oil Outlook 2014
Source: OPEC