Not just oil: Are lower commodity prices here to stay?
January 6, 2015--Oil isn't the only commodity that's gotten cheaper.
From nickel to soybean oil, plywood to sugar, global commodity prices have been on a steady decline as the world's economy has lost momentum. That lower demand helps explain, in part, why nearly everything from crude oil to cotton has been getting cheaper.
Source: CNBC
Gold great value protector in 2014- silver not
Perhaps we should look at gold in currencies-other than the US dollar-to see its real worth as a value protector over the past year.
January 5, 2015--LBMA Gold price end 2013: US$1 201.50; Gold price end 2014: $1 199.25-only down a minute 0.19% over the year.
Thus, by effectively marking time vis-á-vis the US dollar over the full year gold outperformed virtually all other currencies in maintenance of value.
Source: MineWeb
BlackRock Sets Record with $102.8B in ETF Flows in 2014
January 5, 2015--Investors poured $102.8 billion in new money into BlackRock Inc's exchange-traded funds in 2014, setting a record in global flows for the iShares ETF business, the company said on Monday.
The inflows into BlackRock accounted for 31 percent of the total $330.7 billion in new money added to the global ETF market in 2014 as investors flocked to the low-cost, index-tracking funds. Global ETF assets now stand at more than $2.7 trillion.
Source: Fox Business News
IMF Working paper-Shedding Light on Shadow Banking
January 5, 2015--Summary: In this paper, we develop an alternative approach to estimate the size of the shadow banking system, using official data reported to the IMF complemented by other data sources.
We base our alternative approach on the expansion of the noncore liabilities concept developed in recent literature to encompass all noncore liabilities of both bank and nonbank financial institutions. As opposed to existing measures of shadow banking, our newly developed measures capture nontraditional funding raised by traditional banks. We apply the new approach to 26 jurisdictions and analyze the results over a twelve-year span. We find that noncore liabilities are procyclical and display more volatility than core liabilities for most jurisdictions in the sample. We also compare our measures to existing measures, such as the measure developed by the Financial Stability Board. Our approach can be replicated over time using internationally-comparable data and thus may serve as an operational tool for IMF surveillance and policy analysis.
view the IMF Working paper-Shedding Light on Shadow Banking
Source: IMF
Total trading volume at Eurex Group at 2.1 billion contracts in 2014
Average daily volume approximately 8.3 million contracts
Janaury 2, 2015--The international derivatives markets of Eurex Group ended 2014 with a turnover of approximately 2.1 billion contracts (2013: 2.2 billion contracts).
The total volume for 2014 splits into 1.5 billion contracts traded at Eurex Exchange (2013: 1.6 billion) and 607.4 million contracts traded at the International Securities Exchange (ISE) (2013: 638.8 million). This corresponds to a daily average trading volume of 8.3 million contracts, thereof 5.9 million contracts at Eurex Exchange and 2.4 million contracts at ISE.
Source: Eurex:
U.S. Oil Prices Fall 46% This Year, Steepest Loss Since 2008
Gasoline Futures Are Down 48% for the Year
December 31, 2014--Oil futures closed the year at more-than five-year lows, as plentiful supplies and tepid demand continued to send prices plunging.
Brent crude oil and gasoline futures both posted 48% losses in 2014, making them the worst performers among the 22 commodity markets tracked by the Bloomberg Commodity Index.
Source: Wall Street Journal
World Economic League Table 2015 Highlights
December 26, 2014--Revisions to China's GDP mean that it is now forecast to overtake the US in 2025 compared to 2028 in last year's forecasts
The UK appears to have overtaken France this year to become the world's 5th largest economy (but as the 2014 GDP figures are $2,828bn for the UK and $2,827bn for France, the gap is well within the margin of error)
The rise of India looks unstoppable. India overtakes the UK in 2018 to become the largest economy in the Commonwealth and the rise continues – by 2024 India is the world’s third largest economy
Korea is becoming an economic powerhouse (Gangnam Style?) as its growth continues-its league table position moves from 15th in 2013 to a solid 8th, just behind Germany in 2030
Russia's economic woes, a likely weak rouble and a low price of oil mean that it drops back from 8th position in 2013 to 10th in 2014 and stays around that position to 2030
Source: Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr)
Opec won't cut output even at $20 a barrel
December 26, 2014--Opec will not cut oil production even if the price drops to $20 a barrel,
it is unfair to expect the cartel to reduce output if non-members do not, says Saudi Arabia.
Source: FIN24
IMF Working paper-Spillovers from United States Monetary Policy on Emerging Markets: Different This Time?
December 24, 2014--Summary: The impact of monetary policy in large advanced countries on emerging market economies-dubbed spillovers-is hotly debated in global and national policy circles. When the U.S. resorted to unconventional monetary policy, spillovers on asset prices and capital flows were significant, though remained smaller in countries with better fundamentals. This was not because monetary policy shocks changed (in size, sign or impact on stance).
In fact, the traditional signaling channel of monetary policy continued to play the leading role in transmitting shocks, relative to other channels, affecting longer-term bond yields. Instead, we find that larger spillovers stem more from structural factors, such as the use of new instruments (asset purchases). We obtain these results by developing a new methodology to extract, separate, and interpret U.S. monetary policy shocks.
Source: IMF
Preview of the share image Deutsche shutting 12 ETFs after low demand
December 23, 2014--Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management is to shut 12 exchange traded funds due to low investor demand.
The firm's exchange traded fund arm, db X-trackers, plans to close four ETFs tracking financial companies and eight ETFs with exposure to US treasuries, high-yield debt, European sovereign bonds and UK gilts.
Source: FT.com