DMS-Deciphering Developing Markets-Greek Uncertainty Could Cause Larger Issues Within the European Union
February 3, 2015--The internet is awash with article upon article pushing one side and then the other about not only the Greek election results, but what the election of the far left party Syriza means to the unity of Europe.
It appears, at least for now, that the Greek exit from the Euro, or "Grexit," is off the table. At least that’s what the Greeks would like. There are many parties that expressed interest in the outcome of the election, but none more than the nationalist movements in Italy, Spain, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and dare I say it, Russia.
Source: Peter Kohli of DMS for Nasdaq.com
White Paper-The Significance of the Trading Range for Asset Prices & Influencing Factors
February 3, 2015--Ask any investor which two emotional forces drive a market, and he or she will most likely answer, "Fear and Greed." They know this because at some point every investor has had these two emotions affect his or her investing decisions.
Fear and greed work in tandem as the strongest influencing factors of market-based asset pricing. During periods of rising prices, the fear of not wanting to be left behind coupled with the greed of needing to profit from rising prices, causes investors to bid-up asset values. The compounding effect of the herd instinct joins fear and greed to further stimulate market prices, often times to excess and sometimes creating asset bubbles.
Source: Stephen McKay
ETF Securities Research-Precious Metals Weekly-The January 2015 landscape is much changed from a year ago
February 2, 2015--Many of the facts have clearly changed from January 2014. Led by the 5.7% weekly decline in silver, precious metals (PMs) pared 2015 gains last week. Year-to-date most PMs have posted positive returns however. Currency volatility has been a key supportive factor, as exemplified by the price of gold in Euro terms which increased 16.2% in January,
recording its' largest monthly gain in the history of the common currency1
Some say currency wars are accelerating but it appears individual central banks are simply attempting to fight off deflationary forces. In Q1 2014, gold in USD had a similar sharp start to the year from similar levels (around US$1,200/oz.), but the landscape is much changed. Bond yields were widely expected to increase early in 2014. Developed nation (DN) sovereign bond yields currently are in a free fall. Ten European countries have negative 2yr note yields and appear to be increasingly sustainable. The SNB has thrown in the towel in trying to support the Euro and the ECB has committed to providing liquidity until inflation is firmly in place.
Source: ETF Securities Research
McKinsey Global Institute-Debt and (not much) deleveraging
February 2, 2015--Seven years after the bursting of a global credit bubble resulted in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, debt continues to grow. In fact, rather than reducing indebtedness, or deleveraging, all major economies today have higher levels of borrowing relative to GDP than they did in 2007.
Global debt in these years has grown by $57 trillion, raising the ratio of debt to GDP by 17 percentage points.
A new McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) report, Debt and (not much) deleveraging, examines the evolution of debt across 47 countries-22 advanced and 25 developing-and assesses the implications of higher leverage in the global economy and in specific sectors and countries. The analysis, which follows our July 2011 report Debt and deleveraging: The global credit bubble and its economic consequences and our January 2012 report Debt and deleveraging: Uneven progress on the path to growth, focuses on the debt of the "real economy": governments, nonfinancial corporations, and households. It finds that debt-to-GDP ratios have risen in all 22 advanced economies in the sample, by more than 50 percentage points in many cases.
view the McKinsey Global Institute report-Debt and (not much) deleveraging
Source: McKinsey Global Institute
Average daily volume of 8.9 million contracts at Eurex Group in January
February 2, 2015--Monthly trading volumes at Eurex Exchange increase by 15 percent year-on-year/ Eurex's index derivatives segment with significant growth
February 2, 2015-- An average daily volume of 8.9 million contracts (January 2014: 8.5 million) was recorded at the international derivatives markets of Eurex Group in January 2015.
Of those, 6.7 million were Eurex Exchange contracts (January 2014: 5.5 million), and 2.2 million contracts (January 2014: 3.0 million) were traded at the U.S.-based International Securities Exchange (ISE).
In total in January, 139.6 million contracts were traded at Eurex Exchange and 43.5 million at ISE.
Source: Eurex
Liquidity fears loom over fund industry
February 1, 2015--The great and the good of the asset management industry no doubt enjoyed their soirée at the World Economic Forum in January, but the Stakhanovites who stuck it out to the Saturday may have left for home in rather less upbeat mood.
Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, chose a panel session on the final day of the Davos gathering to suggest that global regulators have now cleaned up the banks, with their notoriously high levels of leverage, and had a new target in their sights.
Source: FT.com
ETF giants bet on futures for flows
February 1, 2015--After another record year for asset gathering, ETF providers have set their sights on the global derivatives market.
The global exchange-listed futures market totals $30tn in exposures, while derivatives traded off-exchange have a total notional value of nearly $700tn, according to the Bank for International Settlements.
Source: FT.com
Democratising finance: How passive funds changed investing
January 30, 2015--The process of bringing diversified, affordable investment products to the masses started with investment trusts, which first appeared in the UK in the 1860s and afforded "the investor of moderate means the same advantages as large capitalists".
Open-ended mutual funds followed in the 1920s, and were boosted in the 1990s by fund supermarkets which made them more popular by removing the initial charges for investing.
Source: FT.com
SPDR University Weekly Market Report-January 30, 2015
January 30, 2015--ECONOMIES: The Fed leaves policy unchanged and remains patient on rate hikes. GDP growth slows in the US and UK. GDP slips in Canada. Deflation deepens in the eurozone.
Industrial production rises solidly in Japan. Inflation slows in Australia. MARKETS: Greece, Russia, and the Fed contribute to investor jitters. Equities are mixed but US stocks are distinctly lower.
G7 government bonds are mostly bid. But Italian bonds are notably lower perhaps reflecting some worries of Greek contagion.
CAD and AUD weaken significantly. Oil appears to find floor, and indeed rises sharply on the week.
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SPOTLIGHT: The Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia are expected to leave administered rates unchanged. Payroll employment likely posts another solid gain in the US. Unemployment may tick higher in Canada. Inflation should fall below zero in Italy.
Source: SPDR University
DECPG Global Weekly- January 30, 2015
January 30, 2015--Greece's financial markets tumbled on election outcome. Greek bonds and stocks slumped after the new government came in power promising a roll back of austerity and forgiveness of some of Greece's debt.
A three-day plunge that followed the election wiped out about $10 billion in market capitalization. The yield on 10-year bonds climbed above 10 percent on Wednesday after being as low as 5.7 percent in September last year.
Following the government's effort to downplay the prospect of an imminent clash with international creditors, however, Greek bank shares rallied on Thursday, and the country's banking-stock index surged 13 percent, the most since May 2013.
Source: World Bank