Oil Price Plunge Analyzed In New WB Policy Research Note
March 5, 2015--Rapid expansion of oil supply from unconventional sources, a significant change in OPEC's policy stance, and weak global demand are driving the recent plunge in oil prices, according to a new paper by the World Bank.
These underlying forces are buoyed by a strengthening U.S. dollar and the fact that oil production in the Middle East has not been severely disrupted by ongoing conflict, says the paper, titled "The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses".
Source: World Bank
Europe and emerging markets star in best year so far for ETPs
March 5, 2015--This year is proving to be the best year so far for global growth of ETPs, according to research by BlackRock.
February saw global ETP flows of USD50bn, which represented the fourth best month on record and pushed the year-to-date figure to USD62.3bn.
Source: ETFExpress
UPDATE 2-Global regulators publish revised proposals to supervise top funds
March 4, 2015--Global regulators published revised proposals on Wednesday for supervising the world's biggest mutual funds following fierce industry pushback in the United States and elsewhere.
The Group of 20 economies' (G20) regulatory task force, the Financial Stability Board (FSB), said the industry had called for a more detailed analysis of systemic risks for determining which institutions should come under the new rules.
Source: Reuters
Fund Managers Face Tougher Rules on Too-Big-to-Fail Firms
March 4, 2014--The world's largest fund managers are in line for tougher rules as global regulators push ahead with plans to identify too-big-to-fail firms in the face of opposition from the industry.
The Financial Stability Board and the International Organization of Securities Commissions said on Wednesday that the failure of an asset manager could "cause or amplify significant disruption to the global financial system."
Source: Bloomberg
WEF-Flying Robots and Brain-Mimicking Computer Chips Among the Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2015
March 4, 2015-World Economic Forum's annual list recognizes breakthrough technologies with the greatest potential to help address the world's most pressing challenges
Aim is to raise attention to technologies' potential and any risks they may present
Zero emission cars fuelled by hydrogen and computer chips that mimic the human brain are among the technological breakthroughs recognized as the Top 10 Emerging Technologies of 2015, a list compiled by the World Economic Forum's Meta-Council on Emerging Technologies.
The council compiles the list each year to help raise attention for those technologies its members believe possess the greatest potential for addressing chronic global challenges. The purpose is also to initiate a debate on any human, societal, economic or environmental risks the technologies pose, with the aim of addressing any concerns before adoption becomes widespread.
view the Top 10 emerging technologies of 2015
Source: WEF (World Economic Forum)
Proposed Assessment Methodologies for Identifying NBNI SIFI
March 4, 2015--The Financial Stability Board (FSB) and the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) are publishing today for second public consultation Assessment Methodologies for Identifying Non-Bank Non-Insurer Global Systemically Important Financial Institutions (NBNI G-SIFIs).
The proposed methodologies for identifying NBNI G-SIFIs complement the methodologies for identifying G-SIFIs that currently cover banks and insurers, and take into account responses received on the first consultative document issued on 8 January 2014. The proposed methodologies aim to identify NBNI financial entities whose distress or disorderly failure, because of their size, complexity and systemic interconnectedness, would cause significant disruption to the wider financial system and economic activity at the global level or NBNI G-SIFIs in short.
Source: IOSCO
The Flow Whisperer-TAARSS says prefer International DM such as Europe and Japan
March 4, 2015--Tactical Asset Allocation Relative Strength Signal (TAARSS) Monthly Update
Top recommendations for March: European equities and Germany with currency hedge,Japan,US Aerospace & Defense,and Indian equities.
Market review
Risky assets received a boost in February with Global equities (ACWI) and Commodities (DBC) rising 5.5% and 4.4%,respectively. While US bonds (AGG) lagged behind losing 0.9% on rising rates concerns.
TAARSS rotation strategy monthly performance review
Last month,monthly TAARSS strategies outperformed or were in line with their benchmarks; while quarterly rotation strategies have been mixed QTD.
Tactical positioning for March 2015 based on TAARSS
Within equities we see strong investment demand support in DM Intl,and neutral support for the US,and EM for March. Within regions prefer Europe (with FX hedge) followed in the distance by Asia Pacific,remain neutral North America,and away from Latin America. Within the US,we again prefer Small and Mid Caps over Large Caps for March,or a total market or equal weighting approach. In terms of sectors,flows suggest a rotation into Global Cyclicals (Materials,Energy) away from Domestic Cyclicals,while maintaining some Defensives (Cons. Staples,Health Care) exposures. In International DM countries we see increased investor confidence,prefer Germany (with FX hedge) or Japan. For EM equities we continue to see India with the strongest support. Among other equity themes we see good support for US Aerospace & Defense. In fixed income,signals suggest credit over rates via US Corporate Debt (HY and IG). Lastly for commodities,we continue to see some support to Energy,but remain cautious.
Source: Deutsche Bank-Synthetic Equity & Index Strategy-Global
Basel III monitoring results published by the Basel Committee
March 3, 2015--The Basel Committee today published the results of its latest Basel III monitoring exercise. The study is based on the rigorous reporting process set up by the Committee to periodically review the implications of the Basel III standards for banks.
The results of previous exercises in this series were published in September 2014, March 2014, September 2013, March 2013, September 2012 and April 2012.
A total of 224 banks participated in the current study, comprising 98 large internationally active banks ("Group 1 banks"), defined as internationally active banks that have Tier 1 capital of more than €3 billion) and 126 Group 2 banks (ie representative of all other banks).
view the Basel III Monitoring Report-March 2015
Source: BIS
Average daily volume of 7.6 million contracts at Eurex Group in February
March 2, 2015--An average daily volume of 7.6 million contracts (February 2014: 7.9 million) were recorded at the international derivatives markets of Eurex Group in February 2015. Of those, 5.8 million were Eurex Exchange contracts (February 2014: 5.4 million), and 1.8 million contracts (February 2014: 2.6 million) were traded at the U.S.-based International Securities Exchange (ISE).
In total in February, 116.8 million contracts were traded at Eurex Exchange and 34.2 million at ISE.
At Eurex Exchange, the equity index derivatives segment totaled 57.1 million contracts compared with 50.7 million in February 2014. The future on the EURO STOXX 50 Index recorded 19.8 million contracts, the options on this blue chip index another 23.3 million contracts. DAX index futures recorded 2.0 million contracts while the DAX options reached another 3.9 million contracts.
Source: Eurex
ETF Securities Research-Precious Metals Weekly-
A continuation of the recent trend in weaker than expected economic data and reduced FOMC rate hike expectations helped to support gold and bond prices on the back of news of increasing demand from China and India. Jittery investors remembering the NASDAQ at 5,000 15-years ago coupled with declining earnings, appear to be looking elsewhere for diversification. Palladium was the best performing PM with a gain of 4.8% and was the only PM to post an increase on the month (+5.8%). Gold is more likely to have bottomed near US$1,200/oz. if the VIX increases but silver and platinum appear cheap to gold. Palladium does not appear cheap to gold but has been the best performing metal the past few years, on the back of strong supply/demand trends. Rather than trying to be tactical in such an environment, a basket of precious metals may offer a better alternative asset option.
Source: ETF Securities Research
March 2, 2015--Gold recovers despite a new 12-year high in the US dollar index. Gold ended the final week of February with a bit of upward momentum, having held US$1,200/oz. support despite a new low for the year in the VIX and high for the US dollar.
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