ETF Securities Outlook 2016: Don’t believe the hype...
December 1, 2015--We enter 2016 with one certainty: US official policy interest rates are going to rise. But the Federal Reserve (Fed) balance sheet has never been this vast and so most asset classes will be entering unchartered waters during this tightening cycle.
Our analysis of previous Fed hiking cycles suggests, contrary to popular belief, that the US Dollar (USD) sells-off. We believe the USD will behave in a similar way as it has done in the past and begin its decline during Q1 2016.
Source: ETF Securities
IMF-Review of the Method of Valuation of the SDR
December 1, 2015--Summary:This paper provides the basis for the quinquennial review of the method of valuation of the Special Drawing Right (SDR).
The review considers the composition, size, and weighting of the SDR currency basket and the financial instruments used to determine the SDR interest rate.
view the IMF Policy Paper: Review of the Method of Valuation of the SDR
Source: IMF
IMF Survey: Chinese Renminbi to Be Included in IMF's Special Drawing Right Basket
December 1, 2015--Renminbi becomes fifth currency making up SDR basket
Inclusion is an important milestone in China's global financial integration
Decision reflects growing international use and trading of renminbi
The Chinese currency renminbi (RMB) is to be included in the basket of currencies which make up the IMF's Special Drawing Right, or SDR.
This is the first time in over 15 years that the list of currencies comprising the SDR has been altered.
Source: IMF
ETF Securities Commodity ETP Weekly
November 30, 2015--Commodity turning point echoed by commodity basket inflows
A shortened trading week saw oil and most industrial metals prices increase as investors become more confident that we are close to the trough in the commodity market. Flows into our commodity baskets echo this sentiment.
Gold, viewed a defensive asset that performs poorly in higher real rate environments, saw a second co nsecutive week of outflows. We believe that such pessimism for the metal could be misplaced.
Despite some optimism expressed in the market last week, we doubt OPEC will change course at its meeting on Friday.
More investors return to commodity markets. ETFS Longer Dated All Commodities GO UCITS ETF (COMF) received US$24.2mn last week in an indication that more investors are convinced that commodities have hit a turning point. Year-todate inflows into diversified commodity baskets have risen to US$429.2mn this year, compared to US$206.1mn in 2014, US$53.5mn in 2013 and an outflow of 21.6mn in 2012.
Source: ETF Securities
Source: What are the odds of the unexpected happening in 2016?
November 30, 2015--The economic and market environment for next year should favour equities, particularly in Japan and the Eurozone due to the low interest rate policies being adopted by their central banks, while Japanese real estate should also perform well.
These views are based on the most likely scenario for 2016, according to the Multi-Asset Research team at Source, one of the largest providers of Exchange Traded Products (ETPs) in Europe. The team's latest publication also explains why fixed income could disappoint in 2016' with shorter duration US high yield being a possible exception.
Source: Source
Implementation monitoring of the PFMI:
November 30, 2015--The Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures (CPMI) and the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) have today published the report on Assessment and review of application of Responsibilities for authorities.
This report presents the findings of the CPMI-IOSCO assessment of the completeness and consistency of frameworks and outcomes arising from jurisdictions' implementation of the Responsibilities for authorities in the Principles for financial market infrastructures (PFMI).
view the Assessment and review of application of Responsibilities for authorities
Source: IOSCO
Banks embrace 'the age of asset management'
November 30, 2015--"The age of asset management is upon us," said Andrew Haldane, chief economist of the Bank of England,
in a speech that became the talking point of the financial industry 18 months ago.
Source: FT.com
IMF expected to include yuan in SDR currency basket
November 30, 2015--The International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Executive Board meets on Monday to discuss a staff proposal to include China's yuan, or renminbi as it's also known, in an exclusive group of currencies that make up the basket of the IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDR).
The prospects of inclusion, which will represent public acknowledgement of China's heft in the global economy, look pretty high given that the U.S., a major investor in the fund, ...
Trade repositories fall short warns CPMI-IOSCO study
November 30, 2015--Just under two-thirds of the world's leading nations in capital markets have now adopted international best practices, according to a new report on financial market infrastructures, but more work is needed on trade repositories.
Source: bankingtech.com
China, Britain studying feasibility of Shanghai-London Stock Connect
November 28, 2015--Chinese and British securities watchdogs are studying the feasibility of a proposed program to link the two countries' stock markets, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) said Friday.
CSRC vice head Fang Xinghai met with London Stock Exchange CEO Nikhil Rathi this week. They discussed the Shanghai-London Stock Connect and other financial cooperation measures, according to a CSRC statement.
Source: chinadaily.com.cn